Why Ole Miss will remain college football's most fascinating team in 2016

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Ole Miss is never, ever boring

Let's start with a flashback to my 2012 team preview.

The Ole Miss of the present tense has battled a spectacular case of bipolarity, capable of greatness, but only fleetingly.

Now Hugh Freeze steps in. Freeze's résumé is nearly flawless -- 30-8 career record as a head coach (at two programs that combined for a 7-16 record in the years before he took over), strong offensive resume, delightful grasp of the hybrid positions that are currently en vogue -- but it also fits on just one page. And in hiring him, Ole Miss somehow managed to be both conservative (he came cheaper than other candidates) and ambitious. But contradiction has been the name of the game in Oxford for most of the last half-century.

The Rebels find ways to stand out, for better or worse. Their last seven coaches:

1. Billy Brewer, who led the Rebels to five winning seasons and three bowl wins and got them wrecked by NCAA probation.
2. Joe Lee Dunn, Brewer's defensive coordinator who coached for just one 4-7 season (1994) and ended up at Mississippi State by 1996.
3. Tommy Tuberville, who guided the Rebels through probation, led them to bowls, announced "they'll have to carry me out of here in a pine box" in response to rumors, then left for Auburn two days later.
4. David Cutcliffe, who kept Eli Manning at home, led Ole Miss to five consecutive winning seasons (the first time that had happened since John Vaught's last five years), and got fired after a single losing season.
5. Ed Orgeron, who is Ed Orgeron.
6. Houston Nutt, who is Houston Nutt.
7. Freeze, who had just six years of college experience, one third of it at Lambuth, a defunct NAIA program.

Freeze inherited a program that had won six games in two years, and he won seven games in 2012, eight in 2013, nine in 2014, and 10 in 2015. He has built a deep, physical squad that is almost as marvelous in failure as it is in increasing success.

In 2014, Freeze's Rebels were the best team in the country through two months, then crashed in amazing fashion, losing via last-minute interception at LSU, then to Auburn when their star receiver suffered a significant injury and fumbled millimeters before the game-winning touchdown. They finished by getting humiliated by TCU in the Peach Bowl.

In 2015, they dealt with injuries and suspensions to nearly every star, shuffled their offensive line and defense constantly, beat eventual national champion Alabama (in Tuscaloosa!) for the second straight year, and lost to Memphis four weeks later. They rallied, lost the best game of the 2015 season, 53-52, to Arkansas, and then beat LSU, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma State by a combined 60 points.

They then watched their star left tackle seemingly admit on live TV to getting paid under the table.

Never boring.

The Rebs enter 2016 in an interesting place. They are 12th in the Coaches Poll, and because of last season's injuries and suspensions, they got a lot of players experience and are perhaps better suited to handle the loss of stars like Laremy Tunsil, Laquon Treadwell, and Robert Nkemdiche than they would have otherwise been.

They could get hit with the NCAA's sanctions hammer at any moment between tomorrow and about 2019, but before they inevitably deal with scholarship reductions, Freeze and company have built a roster with both experience and thrilling young talent in every unit.

They might fall drastically short of expectations. They might win the SEC. They might be banned from the postseason by November. They are endlessly fascinating.

This is Bill C's daily preview series, working its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC so far!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 5 | Final S&P+ Rk: 5
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	UT-Martin	N/A	76-3	W	97%	100%	+40.2
12-Sep	Fresno State	103	73-21	W	99%	100%	+18.4	+23.0
19-Sep	at Alabama	1	43-37	W	92%	92%	+13.6	+13.0
26-Sep	Vanderbilt	83	27-16	W	75%	91%	-19.4	-14.0
3-Oct	at Florida	27	10-38	L	7%	0%	-36.5	-35.5
10-Oct	New Mexico State	118	52-3	W	98%	100%	+22.3	+5.5
17-Oct	at Memphis	41	24-37	L	58%	44%	-21.6	-23.5
24-Oct	Texas A&M	34	23-3	W	96%	100%	+15.0	+14.0
31-Oct	at Auburn	33	27-19	W	74%	83%	-6.8	+0.5
7-Nov	Arkansas	11	52-53	L	81%	83%	-12.5	-12.0
21-Nov	LSU	10	38-17	W	93%	99%	+15.1	+16.5
28-Nov	at Mississippi State	16	38-27	W	91%	97%	+9.3	+10.0
1-Jan	vs. Oklahoma State	40	48-20	W	96%	100%	+19.9	+20.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	41.6	10	20.5	22
Points Per Game	40.8	8	22.6	33

2. A commendable rebound

The biggest difference in Ole Miss' 2015 was resilience. The 2014 Rebels were strong, but once they had their heart broken, they crumbled. It was understandable -- the way they lost the Auburn game was an all-time stomach punch -- but it was still a missed opportunity. They managed to beat Mississippi State, but the Egg Bowl win came between a 30-point loss to Arkansas and a 39-point loss to TCU.

By midseason 2015, the defense was becoming a disheveled mess. Safety Tony Conner got hurt against Alabama, and linebacker C.J. Johnson got hurt against Florida. Tackles Issac Gross and Herbert Moore had been out for a while. Nkemdiche left the Memphis game with a concussion. Ole Miss was vulnerable, and Memphis took complete advantage, throwing for 384 yards. They scored 37 points -- two weeks after Florida had scored 38 -- and Ole Miss lost for the second time in three weeks.

This time, there was a rebound. Arkansas still exploded for 53 points (45 in regulation), but the Rebs looked mostly awesome down the stretch.

• First 4 games:
  Record: 4-0 | Average percentile performance: 91% (~top 11) |
• Next 5 games:
  Record: 3-2 | Average percentile performance: 67% (~top 40) |
• Last 4 games:
  Record: 3-1 | Average percentile performance: 90% (~top 13) |

The 2015 team was far more mature, and while quite a few of the reasons for that maturity are gone, plenty are back.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	26	IsoPPP+	136.9	2
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.4%	4	Succ. Rt. +	128.6	3
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.1	72	Def. FP+	28.0	35
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	5.1	14	Redzone S&P+	129.1	2
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.3		ACTUAL	23	-4.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	10	2	3	2
RUSHING	45	24	13	41
PASSING	10	2	2	3
Standard Downs		2	5	3
Passing Downs		7	2	13

Q1 Rk	1	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	17	2nd Down Rk	11
Q3 Rk	17	3rd Down Rk	2
Q4 Rk	7

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Chad Kelly	6'2, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8727	298	458	4042	31	13	65.1%	17	3.6%	8.2
DeVante Kincade					9	15	79	1	0	60.0%	1	6.3%	4.4
Ryan Buchanan					8	13	96	2	1	61.5%	0	0.0%	7.4
Jason Pellerin	6'4, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8772
Shea Patterson	6'2, 200	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9979

3. Lucky and good

Kelly's most memorable pass was also his luckiest. He fielded a bad snap, faced three charging Alabama pass rushers, and threw desperately toward a well-covered Treadwell, who tipped the ball to Quincy Adeboyejo for a long touchdown in an eventual six-point win. It was incredible and fluky as hell.

The play exposed both Kelly's swagger and occasional silliness. The latter backfired on him at times, as he threw 13 interceptions, but his confidence was important. Ole Miss ranked second in Passing S&P+ and did so despite playing half of its season without Tunsil. Kelly plays with the swagger of a guy who has a rap song about himself and declared himself the best QB in the SEC over the summer. I'm pretty sure he's right, and I don't think it's particularly close.

The gunslinger threw for 4,042 yards, and while Treadwell was the bell cow, catching more than twice as many balls as anyone else, the supporting cast was too important to ignore. Six other Rebels caught at least 23 passes, and four of them return.

Damore'ea Stringellow and Adeboyejo are back after combining for 74 catches and 1,107 yards at 9.7 yards per target. So is tight end Evan Engram, one of the early stars of the celebrated 2013 recruiting class, after catching 38 balls last year. It appears slot receiver Markell Pack is going to be out for a little while, but blue-chip redshirt freshman Van Jefferson appeared to have already surpassed him on the depth chart. And as long as one of three four-star freshman receivers is ready to contribute, it appears Ole Miss' receiving corps will be loaded.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jaylen Walton	RB					142	730	5	5.1	5.3	38.7%	4	2
Chad Kelly	QB	6'2, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8727	90	646	10	7.2	5.3	57.8%	8	2
Akeem Judd	RB	5'11, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8781	78	425	3	5.4	4.0	46.2%	0	0
Jordan Wilkins (ineligible)	RB	6'1, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9100	72	379	4	5.3	5.7	41.7%	1	1
Eugene Brazley	RB	5'9, 192	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8641	21	219	3	10.4	18.1	38.1%	1	1
DeVante Kincade	QB					8	95	0	11.9	8.1	75.0%	0	0
D.K. Buford	RB	5'11, 227	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687	7	78	1	11.1	11.6	57.1%	1	1
Robert Nkemdiche	DT					4	2	2	0.5	0.0	0.0%	0	0
Jeremy Liggins	TE/OL	6'3, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697	4	1	0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	1	0
Eric Swinney	RB	5'9, 210	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9423
D'Vaughn Pennamon	RB	5'11, 218	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9091

4. The run game came around

For the most part, Ole Miss was improving year-to-year despite the run game. It was a constant drag with iffy blocking from the line and all-or-nothing play from the backs.

Perhaps because the passing game was rising so quickly, the run game turned from liability into beautiful complement. Ole Miss ranked 24th in Rushing S&P+, with three backs combining for 22.5 carries per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

Starter Jaylen Walton was probably the least effective of the three, at least on a per-carry basis. Both Akeen Judd and Jordan Wilkins topped him in efficiency, and Wilkins was a little bit more explosive as well. And in a smaller role, Eugene Brazley showed serious jets, though almost all of his production came against UT-Martin and New Mexico State. Between these three and two four-star freshman -- Eric Swinney (redshirt) and D'Vaughn Pennamon (true) -- it's hard to imagine too much of a drop-off from the backs.

So that leaves the line.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Laquon Treadwell	WR					122	83	1165	68.0%	26.2%	9.5	60.7%	58.2%	1.59
Damore'ea Stringfellow	WR	6'2, 211	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9653	58	36	503	62.1%	12.5%	8.7	69.0%	51.7%	1.60
Cody Core	WR					57	37	644	64.9%	12.3%	11.3	68.4%	57.9%	1.79
Quincy Adeboyejo	WR	6'3, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8696	56	38	604	67.9%	12.0%	10.8	76.8%	51.8%	2.01
Evan Engram	TE	6'3, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	55	38	464	69.1%	11.8%	8.4	50.9%	52.7%	1.42
Markell Pack	SLOT	6'2, 184	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9380	40	31	380	77.5%	8.6%	9.5	72.5%	62.5%	1.40
Jaylen Walton	RB					32	23	164	71.9%	6.9%	5.1	59.4%	37.5%	1.21
Akeem Judd	RB	5'11, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8781	11	9	54	81.8%	2.4%	4.9	45.5%	45.5%	0.85
Derrick Jones	WR	6'2, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8392	9	6	120	66.7%	1.9%	13.3	55.6%	55.6%	2.37
Jordan Wilkins	RB	6'1, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9100	6	5	75	83.3%	1.3%	12.5	66.7%	50.0%	2.28
Taz Zettergren	TE	6'3, 218	Sr.	NR	NR	6	4	38	66.7%	1.3%	6.3	50.0%	50.0%	1.27
Hunter Thurley	TE	6'4, 241	Sr.	NR	NR	3	2	44	66.7%	0.6%	14.7	66.7%	66.7%	1.90
Jeremy Liggins	TE/OL	6'3, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697	2	1	18	50.0%	0.4%	9.0	50.0%	50.0%	1.93
Trey Bledsoe	WR	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116
Damarkus Lodge	WR	6'2, 190	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9807
Van Jefferson	SLOT	6'2, 187	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9489
A.J. Brown	WR	6'1, 225	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9792
D.K. Metcalf	WR	6'4, 217	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9445
Octavious Cooley	TE	6'3, 246	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9242
Tré Nixon	WR	6'1, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9224
Gabe Angel	TE	6'3, 238	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8911
Jacob Mathis	TE	6'4, 233	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8901

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.7	2.7	4.42	43.9%	44.4%	22.2%	151.0	2.6%	7.5%
Rank	34	99	1	14	127	101	25	20	72

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Aaron Morris	LG					9	40
Justin Bell	C					4	30
Laremy Tunsil	LT					6	27
Fahn Cooper	RT					13	26
Ben Still	C					8	20
Robert Conyers	C	6'5, 298	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8219	5	8
Sean Rawlings	RT	6'5, 282	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426	7	7
Javon Patterson	LG	6'3, 307	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9739	6	6
Jordan Sims	RG	6'4, 334	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8737	5	5
Rod Taylor	LG	6'3, 329	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9758	2	4
Jeremy Liggins	LT	6'3, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697	0	0
Talbot Buys	LT	6'8, 320	Sr.	NR	0.7900	0	0
Jacob Feeley	C	6'2, 282	Sr.	NR	NR	0	0
Daronte Bouldin	RG	6'5, 324	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	0	0
Alex Givens	LT	6'6, 297	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8669
Michael Howard	RT	6'5, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8603
Greg Little	OL	6'6, 332	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9991
Bryce Mathews	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9086
Eli Johnson	C	6'1, 289	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8706

5. The biggest question mark

This year's good news is last year's bad news. Injury and suspension led to constant shuffling up front for Ole Miss. That the Rebels were prolific despite it was impressive, but there's no question that the line was an issue. The Rebels ranked 127th in power success rate, 101st in stuff rate, and 72nd in passing downs pass rate. At least part of that was because of the quarterback and running backs, but ... those are really bad numbers for an otherwise strong offense.

But that shuffling could be the Rebels' savior in 2016. Yes, five linemen with at least 20 career starts are gone, but five returnees still started at least two games last year, including former blue-chippers Javon Patterson and Rod Taylor.

There are clear question marks here. That converted tight end Jeremy Liggins was listed as starting left tackle in the preseason depth chart, instead of someone more seasoned, was itself alarming, and that was before Liggins got himself suspended in fall camp. Blue-chipper Greg Little supposedly reported to camp a little bit on the overweight side as well.

Between last year's part-time starters, a smattering of upperclassmen, and youngsters like Little and redshirt freshmen Alex Givens and Michael Howard, it's not hard to assume the line will produce a decent starting five. The question is how long it will take. Ole Miss plays two top-five teams in the first three weeks, after all.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	26	IsoPPP+	116.8	20
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.2%	34	Succ. Rt. +	112.0	28
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.8	70	Off. FP+	31.8	28
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.9	24	Redzone S&P+	118.3	15
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.6		ACTUAL	23.0	-6.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	54	22	28	20
RUSHING	23	17	14	23
PASSING	105	23	46	18
Standard Downs		25	23	26
Passing Downs		20	43	15

Q1 Rk	14	1st Down Rk	14
Q2 Rk	17	2nd Down Rk	20
Q3 Rk	46	3rd Down Rk	6
Q4 Rk	15

6. Opponents took their chances with the pass

Despite the immense success of the last two seasons, Ole Miss' timing was still a bit off. The Rebels ranked first in Def. S&P+ in 2014 but came in just 35th in Off. S&P+. Last fall, the offense surged to 10th, but because of the steady drip of injuries, the defense fell to 22nd. A team with Ole Miss' 2014 defense and 2015 offense would have been the best in the country, but things don't always play out in coordinated fashion.

It seemed the two areas most affected by injury were defensive tackle and the secondary.

That the Rebels still managed to rank fifth in power success rate and 17th in Rushing S&P+ was impressive, considering the tackles who went down, but the secondary suffered.

Ole Miss fell from sixth in Passing S&P+ to 23rd, primarily due to a lack of efficiency. The pass rush disappeared, and the safety position took a huge hit, both planned (2014 star Cody Prewitt was already gone) and unplanned (Tony Conner and C.J. Hampton missed a lot of time).

That gave opponents an out. If they didn't want to run, they didn't have to. Opponents ran 6 percent less frequently than the national average on standard downs and 5 percent less on passing downs. And it worked pretty well. Ole Miss allowed a 62 percent completion rate on first down and 66 percent in the first half. This put the Rebels further onto their heels than they perhaps anticipated.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.8	2.45	3.71	33.0%	49.1%	22.5%	98.1	3.3%	8.6%
Rank	30	12	114	11	5	34	68	108	40

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marquis Haynes	DE	6'3, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8800	13	36.0	4.5%	16.5	10.0	0	2	3	0
D.J. Jones	NT	6'0, 321	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9346	13	31.5	3.9%	5.5	4.0	0	0	1	0
Issac Gross (2014)	NT	6'1, 263	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8945	12	28.5	3.8%	8.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Channing Ward	DE					13	28.0	3.5%	6.5	3.0	0	3	1	0
Fadol Brown	DE	6'4, 273	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	11	23.5	2.9%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Breeland Speaks	DT	6'3, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9194	13	23.0	2.9%	5.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Woodrow Hamilton	NT					13	22.5	2.8%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Nkemdiche	DT					11	21.0	2.6%	7.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
John Youngblood	DE	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	13	15.5	1.9%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Victor Evans	DE	6'3, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479	11	12.0	1.5%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Garrald McDowell	DE	6'2, 261	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9196	9	8.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ross Donelly	NT	6'1, 306	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8566	7	5.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Herbert Moore	DT	6'1, 326	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428
Austrian Robinson	DT	6'4, 288	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609
Josiah Coatney	DL	6'4, 293	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8667
Benito Jones	DT	6'2, 308	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9842
Charles Wiley	DE	6'2, 253	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9036

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rommel Mageo (Oregon State)	MLB	6'2, 233	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	67.0	8.9%	2.0	2.0	2	1	2	0
DeMarquis Gates	MLB	6'2, 211	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8743	13	61.0	7.6%	2.0	0.0	0	4	2	0
Denzel Nkemdiche	OLB					10	44.5	5.5%	6.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
C.J. Johnson	MLB					10	34.0	4.2%	3.0	2.0	2	1	1	1
Terry Caldwell	OLB	6'1, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504	13	28.5	3.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	2	0
Christian Russell	MLB					12	27.0	3.4%	4.5	0.0	1	0	1	0
Temario Strong	MLB	6'0, 229	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	12	10.5	1.3%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Tayler Polk	OLB	5'11, 212	Jr.	NR	NR	12	10.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ray Ray Smith	OLB	6'2, 216	Jr.	NR	NR	11	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Luke Davis	LB	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7952	13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Willie Hibbler	MLB	6'3, 231	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8855
Detric Bing-Dukes	LB	6'1, 247	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8241

7. Still loaded

Ole Miss has to replace three of its top seven tacklers on the line (including Robert Nkemdiche) and three of five at linebacker (including C.J. Johnson and Denzel Nkemdiche). That's quite a bit of star power and depth to replace, but last year's shuffling could pay off. All three of these players missed time, which gave opportunities to players like sophomore tackle Breeland Speaks, junior linebacker DeMarquis Gates, and JUCO transfer Terry Caldwell. And in Issac Gross' absence, D.J. Jones thrived.

Jones, Speaks, and Gross are back, as are Gates, Caldwell, and ends Marquis Haynes and Fadol Brown. Oregon State transfer Rommel Mageo and JUCOs Josiah Coatney and Detric Bing-Dukes (a one-time Georgia signee) join the mix, as do four-star freshmen Benito Jones and Charles Wiley. There are options, and while depth might not be at a level strong enough to withstand a 2015-esque run of injury, this unit still has a really high ceiling. The Land Sharks live.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mike Hilton	NB					13	59.5	7.4%	12.5	1.5	2	13	1	0
Trae Elston	ROV					13	57.0	7.1%	5	0	4	14	0	0
Tony Conner (2014)	NB	6'0, 225	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9837	13	53.5	7.1%	9	1	1	2	0	0
Ken Webster	CB	5'11, 189	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8887	13	35.5	4.4%	3	0	1	11	0	0
Tony Bridges	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9131	13	32.5	4.0%	2	0	3	9	0	0
C.J. Hampton	FS	6'0, 186	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9534	9	25.0	3.1%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Zedrick Woods	ROV	5'11, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8402	13	20.5	2.5%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Chief Brown	FS					13	20.0	2.5%	0.5	0	1	3	0	0
A.J. Moore	NB	5'11, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8386	13	19.0	2.4%	1	1	0	0	2	0
Carlos Davis	CB	5'8, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	13	18.5	2.3%	1.5	0	0	1	0	0
C.J. Moore	ROV	5'11, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8370	13	15.5	1.9%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Kailo Moore	CB	5'10, 188	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9302	10	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cam Ordway	DB	5'11, 184	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8773	7	5.5	0.7%	0.5	0	0	1	0
Armani Linton	FS	6'2, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9067
Jalen Julius	CB	5'10, 172	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8648
Montrell Custis	NB	6'0, 186	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8545
Deontay Anderson	DB	6'1, 217	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9732
Jaylon Jones	DB	5'11, 177	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9145
Myles Hartsfield	ROV	5'11, 199	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8584

8. Play-makers gone, play-makers back

Ole Miss returns every cornerback from last year's secondary; the duo of Ken Webster and Tony Bridges combined for five tackles for loss and 24 passes defensed and provided a pleasant play-making surprise after the loss of the awesome Senquez Golson.

The questions come at safety. Mike Hilton was a virtually perfect nickel back, combining coverage skills (15 passes defensed) with invasive ability (12.5 tackles for loss). Trae Elston, meanwhile, provided almost the same level of havoc. The loss of these two and Chief Brown is a concern, as is the fact that new/old nickel Tony Conner might not be 100 percent yet.

If Conner eventually reaches his 2014 form, and C.J. Hampton stays in Freeze's good graces (he was suspended for nearly half of last season), then maybe the safeties will come close to the standard set in 2014 and parts of 2015. But the recent loss of backup C.J. Moore to injury made the unit even greener beyond the first string and will probably force blue-chip freshman Deontay Anderson to produce early.

There are a lot of "ifs" and "maybes" for the defense, but a better year of injuries luck would help considerably.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Gleeson	6'3, 189	Jr.	43	40.7	1	15	9	55.8%
Gary Wunderlich	6'0, 193	Jr.	9	46.9	0	1	4	55.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nathan Noble	6'3, 229	Sr.	94	64.1	54	1	57.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Gary Wunderlich	6'0, 193	Jr.	63-63	16-20	80.0%	3-5	60.0%
Andy Pappanastos			3-3	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jaylen Walton	KR			27	18.3	0
Carlos Davis	KR	5'8, 170	Sr.	3	13.0	0
Collins Moore	PR			15	1.4	0
Carlos Davis	PR	5'8, 170	Sr.	13	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	72
Field Goal Efficiency	65
Punt Return Success Rate	118
Kick Return Success Rate	123
Punt Success Rate	62
Kickoff Success Rate	3

9. Legs: good. Returns: ehhhhhh

The areas of special teams that involve kicking a ball are fine. Gary Wunderlich is a steady place-kicker, Nathan Noble's kickoffs are usually unreturnable, and while Will Gleeson's punts aren't particularly long, they too are frequently unreturnable. (Coverage units are solid, too.)

The areas of special teams that involve returning someone else's kicks, however, are problematic. Ole Miss got almost nothing out of the return game in 2015, and while Carlos Davis' return gives the unit a little bit of experience, this could be an area in which a freshman or redshirt freshman (corner Jalen Julius, perhaps?) gives the Rebels a quick boost.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
5-Sep	vs. Florida State	5	-0.7	48%
10-Sep	Wofford	NR	42.0	99%
17-Sep	Alabama	1	-4.4	40%
24-Sep	Georgia	15	6.3	64%
1-Oct	Memphis	77	22.4	90%
15-Oct	at Arkansas	17	0.2	50%
22-Oct	at LSU	2	-9.0	30%
29-Oct	Auburn	24	9.9	72%
5-Nov	Georgia Southern	52	18.0	85%
12-Nov	at Texas A&M	25	3.0	57%
19-Nov	at Vanderbilt	69	13.6	78%
26-Nov	Mississippi State	21	8.8	70%
Projected wins: 7.8

Five-Year F/+ Rk	24.3% (22)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	15 / 20
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 2.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	64% (74%, 54%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	10.9 (-0.9)

10. The best 1-2 team in college football

You can make the case that the Ole Miss defense will be at its best early in the season. Most injuries won't have happened yet, and the unit's overall experience will pay early dividends.

You can also make the case that the offense will take a while to come around. Maybe last year's excellent complementary receivers don't automatically take to larger roles (doubtful), or maybe the offensive line needs time to gel (likely).

How quickly the line comes together could define the season. Ole Miss plays three projected top-five teams, and two show up on the first three weeks. The Rebels take on Florida State in Orlando to start the season, then get a visit from Alabama on September 17. A visit from Georgia follows, and the Rebels visit Arkansas and LSU in mid-October.

Yikes. Per S&P+, Ole Miss has at least a 64 percent chance of winning in seven games and has a 50 percent chance of avoiding an 0-2 record against FSU and Bama. But the schedule is far more conducive to a strong finish than a fast start.

Freeze's program has committed some NCAA violations, and those chickens will come home to roost at some point. But he has also put together a deep roster. His 2016 class ranked sixth in the country per the 247Sports Composite, even better than the famed 2013 haul (eighth), and could power the Rebels into a pretty happy future unless NCAA sanctions are worse than anticipated. (The talent will be there, even if the depth is not.)

Ole Miss should once again be the opposite of boring. But volatility is entertaining, right?