Based on my analysis, Alabama will probably win several football games in 2016

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The gold standard

It's nice to simplify a complex operation whenever possible. Football is as complex as they come, but it and every other team sport can be distilled into three pieces: acquisition, development, and deployment.

How good is the talent you're bringing in? How well are you developing that talent for your needs? How well are your tactics maximizing the talent you have acquired and developed?

Happy answers to those questions will make you a pretty good team. A+ answers will make you the sport's standard-bearer.

I wrote this year in Athlon's preseason publication that Nick Saban's current run at Alabama is as good as college football has seen since at least the 1990s, during Florida State's long run of top-five finishes. His peak has outlasted that of Pete Carroll at USC, Jim Tressel at Ohio State, or even Tom Osborne at 1990s Nebraska.

Saban's dominance has been easy to understand:

1. Alabama recruits better than anyone else. Saban has now signed the top recruiting class in the country for six straight years. And while that streak will end one day, Alabama will that year probably fall all the way to ... second or third.
2. Alabama develops the talent it brings in. The Tide had seven players drafted in 2016, seven in 2015, eight in 2014, nine in 2013, eight in 2012, five in 2011, etc. Saban has proven better than anybody else at not only convincing blue-chippers to enter his program, but also wait for their turn in line. They don't often transfer if they fail to quickly see the field. (The 2015 class is becoming an exception to this rule, however.) This assures quality depth and experience.
3. Alabama deploys its talent in the most simply effective way. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin runs a bell cow offense; he finds the guys he trusts the most and gives them the ball a ton. And when college football's increasing tempo forced Saban and his defensive coaches to simplify, they did so. They follow trends just enough to make sure the game doesn't leave them behind, and they maximize their talent advantage. Plus, Bama's immense support staff allows the program to scout opponents and themselves with as much richness as any other school, and the program's place in the facilities arms race allows them to remain state-of-the-art.

That pretty much covers it, doesn't it?

It almost feels like we're running out of things to say about Saban, not only because they've been good for so long, but because they've succeeded in such an easy-to-understand manner.

And because that easy-to-understand approach is so nearly impossible to pull off, Alabama's SEC companions are slowly starting to lose their minds. Simply winning is no longer quite enough. Les Miles nearly got fired at LSU, and he's won 70 games in seven years. Mark Richt did get fired at Georgia after a run of 50 wins in five seasons. Barely two years after winning the SEC and reaching the national title game at Auburn, Gus Malzahn might be a few months from being fired. Et cetera.

Saban is setting the bar impossibly high, and he's the only one regularly clearing it.

This is the final entry in Bill C's daily preview series, which just worked its way through every 2016 team. Catch up on the SEC!

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 13-1 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 1 | Final S&P+ Rk: 1
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	vs. Wisconsin	32	35-17	W	98%	100%	+7.6	+6.0
12-Sep	Middle Tennessee	82	37-10	W	98%	100%	-9.0	-8.0
19-Sep	Ole Miss	5	37-43	L	54%	8%	-13.6	-13.0
26-Sep	UL-Monroe	121	34-0	W	99%	100%	-12.0	-4.0
3-Oct	at Georgia	30	38-10	W	99%	100%	+16.6	+30.0
10-Oct	Arkansas	11	27-14	W	92%	93%	-8.3	-4.0
17-Oct	at Texas A&M	34	41-23	W	85%	86%	+10.7	+14.0
24-Oct	Tennessee	18	19-14	W	89%	85%	-12.9	-10.5
7-Nov	LSU	10	30-16	W	92%	93%	+6.6	+7.5
14-Nov	at Mississippi State	16	31-6	W	97%	100%	+18.6	+17.5
21-Nov	Charleston Southern	N/A	56-6	W	98%	100%	-3.7
28-Nov	at Auburn	33	29-13	W	93%	98%	-1.3	+2.0
5-Dec	vs. Florida	27	29-15	W	98%	100%	+1.7	-3.5
31-Dec	vs. Michigan State	9	38-0	W	99%	100%	+27.0	+28.5
11-Jan	vs. Clemson	2	45-40	W	78%	43%	+1.7	-1.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	37.9	24	7.9	1
Points Per Game	35.1	30	15.1	3

2. Bama Problems

For the second straight season, Alabama was dealing with the growing pains of both a starting quarterback battle and the lumps of a first-time starter. In 2014, career reserve Blake Sims took over the job, and in 2015, Florida State transfer Jake Coker outlasted sophomore Cooper Bateman. The turnover at QB, combined with a nearly total reset in the receiving corps, resulted in some sustained offensive issues.

Alabama's offense wasn't ever BAD, mind you. But from September 19 to November 7, a span of seven games, the Tide averaged better than 5.5 yards per play in a game just twice and never better than 6. (National average: typically around 5.7.) A lack of consistency in the passing game meant Bama had to lean heavily on an efficient run game.

This offensive mediocrity led to ... a 9-1 record, and an average percentile performance as good as anyone's. And then the offense got off the schneid.

• First 9 games:
  Record: 8-1 | Average percentile performance: 90% (~top 13) | Yards per play: Bama 5.6, Opp 4.2 (+1.4)
  
• Last 6 games:
  Record: 6-0 | Average percentile performance: 94% (~top 8) | Yards per play: Bama 6.3, Opp 4.5 (+1.8)

After struggling a bit against Florida's defense in the SEC title game, Alabama scored 38 points and averaged 6.7 yards per play against Michigan State in the Playoff semis, then scored 45 and averaged 6.7 against Clemson in the championship game. Special teams helped against Clemson, but that was still the definition of saving your best for last.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.25	69	IsoPPP+	116.8	23
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.8%	42	Succ. Rt. +	119.5	10
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.6	22	Def. FP+	25.6	9
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.3	78	Redzone S&P+	107.9	44
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.0		ACTUAL	17	0.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	45	18	10	23
RUSHING	32	20	11	31
PASSING	62	15	14	20
Standard Downs		14	7	23
Passing Downs		36	36	28

Q1 Rk	24	1st Down Rk	16
Q2 Rk	25	2nd Down Rk	21
Q3 Rk	16	3rd Down Rk	22
Q4 Rk	24

3. The bell cow offense

We saw all of Kiffin's strengths and limitations in 2015.

He has long identified the best weapons on his offense and given those guys as many touches as they can possibly handle. That meant 183 combined catches for Robert Woods and Marqise Lee at USC in 2011, then 194 for Lee and Robert Woods the next year. (No other Trojan had even 30 catches in either of those seasons.)

In 2014 at Alabama, it meant 124 catches for Amari Cooper (only one other player had more than 20) and a combined 366 carries for Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon. When Yeldon left in 2015, Henry carried 395 times by himself.

Bama's drastic turnover at receiver made finding a go-to guy difficult. The top three wideouts from 2014 (Cooper, DeAndrew White, Christion Jones) were all gone, and the fourth (Chris Black) dealt with injuries for most of the season, then transferred. Robert Foster caught eight passes in the first two games, then injured his shoulder and missed the rest of the season.

The top two targets, then, ended up a true freshman (Calvin Ridley) and a sophomore (ArDarius Stewart).

Ridley exploded late in the year. He caught 22 passes for 330 yards against Auburn, Florida, and Michigan State, and Stewart became a far more vertical threat as the season progressed (9.3 yards per catch over the first seven games, 12.4 over the final eight).

In the national title game against Clemson, Kiffin spotted a mismatch for tight end O.J. Howard and exploited it ruthlessly; Howard had 394 receiving yards through 14 games, then posted 208 against the Tigers.

Kiffin's approach avoids overthinking. If two or three guys give you far more of a matchup advantage than anybody else, there's no need to distribute the ball just for distribution's sake.

But it does require guys who provide big matchup advantages. For much of the year, Henry was the only person who could do that, and he took on an almost impossible load. And now Henry's gone.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jake Coker					263	393	3110	21	8	66.9%	25	6.0%	7.0
Cooper Bateman	6'3, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9623	37	52	291	1	2	71.2%	1	1.9%	5.5
David Cornwell	6'5, 228	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9624
Blake Barnett	6'5, 211	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9896
Jalen Hurts	6'2, 209	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9231

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Derrick Henry	RB					395	2219	28	5.6	5.4	41.3%	4	3
Kenyan Drake	RB					77	408	1	5.3	5.3	45.5%	1	1
Jake Coker	QB					49	261	2	5.3	3.7	49.0%	3	1
Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 214	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9859	46	157	1	3.4	4.6	28.3%	1	0
Bo Scarbrough	RB	6'2, 228	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9916	18	104	1	5.8	3.6	50.0%	0	0
Derrick Gore	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	NR	NR	6	15	0	2.5	2.6	16.7%	0	0
Ronnie Clark	RB	6'2, 215	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9659	5	20	0	4.0	2.0	40.0%	0	0
ArDarius Stewart	WR	6'1, 204	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9594	5	14	0	2.8	1.7	60.0%	1	1
Cooper Bateman	QB	6'3, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9623	4	10	0	2.5	1.2	50.0%	0	0
B.J. Emmons	RB	6'0, 206	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9799

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Gehrig Dieter (Bowling Green)	WR-Z	6'3, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475	141	94	1033	66.7%	24.5%	7.3	76.6%	56.7%	1.19
Calvin Ridley	WR-X	6'1, 188	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9928	126	89	1059	70.6%	29.2%	8.4	69.0%	49.2%	1.60
ArDarius Stewart	SLOT	6'1, 204	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9594	99	63	700	63.6%	22.9%	7.1	54.5%	39.4%	1.70
Richard Mullaney	SLOT					60	38	390	63.3%	13.9%	6.5	48.3%	48.3%	1.24
O.J. Howard	TE	6'6, 251	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9909	47	38	602	80.9%	10.9%	12.8	61.7%	61.7%	1.90
Kenyan Drake	RB					40	29	262	72.5%	9.3%	6.6	55.0%	37.5%	1.53
Derrick Henry	RB					17	11	91	64.7%	3.9%	5.4	41.2%	23.5%	2.17
Robert Foster	WR-Z	6'2, 191	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9892	12	10	116	83.3%	2.8%	9.7	75.0%	58.3%	1.65
Cam Sims	WR-Z	6'5, 203	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9610	11	6	46	54.5%	2.5%	4.2	54.5%	36.4%	1.13
Brandon Greene	TE	6'5, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9445
Raheem Falkins	WR	6'4, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8833
Hale Hentges	TE	6'5, 256	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9332
Derek Kief	SLOT	6'4, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9116
Trevon Diggs	WR	6'2, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9441
Miller Forristall	TE	6'5, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8822
T.J. Simmons	WR	6'2, 201	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8721

4. Options vs. star power

When three of your four recent national titles have come behind new quarterbacks, it's hard to worry too much about a quarterback change. It is easy to assume it's Cooper Bateman's turn behind center -- the junior briefly eased ahead of Coker in the race in September before losing the job for good in the second half against Ole Miss -- and that everything will be just fine.

Maybe that's how things play out, but true freshman Jalen Hurts is apparently gumming up the works by being awesome in practice, and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett isn't far behind.

Putting a freshman in charge of the No. 1 team in the country would be risky, but even if Hurts ends up the guy, he will certainly have a depth of options.

• Ridley battled some ups and downs but still finished with 1,059 receiving yards at 8.4 yards per target. His late-2015 play suggested he could be ready for a star turn.
• In Howard's three seasons in Tuscaloosa, he has oscillated between invisible and Next Ozzie Newsome. That he caught eight passes for 267 yards in two CFP games last winter was an encouraging sign, but that came after another extended disappearing act. Does he finally put everything together (and keep it together) as a senior?
• Sophomore backs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough are former blue-chippers who appear to be next in line. Scarbrough sent a message with a pair of carries late in the Michigan State game, and the fact that he hasn't completely pulled away from Harris might reflect well on Harris.

Scarbrough isn't quite Henry's size, but he's big enough to carry a large load if he lives up to his reputation. (Harris isn't exactly small, either.)

The run game could become a little more important if Hurts overtakes Bateman, but even without Henry, you could assert that the skill positions are further along than they were a year ago simply because of continuity in the receiving corps. In addition to Ridley, Howard, and Stewart, Robert Foster returns, and Bowling Green graduate transfer Gehrig Dieter brings experience and efficiency.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	116.3	3.01	3.79	41.5%	75.0%	17.4%	116.9	4.4%	7.8%
Rank	12	45	16	33	24	34	42	55	77

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ryan Kelly	C					15	35	Rimington Trophy winner, 2015 All-American, 2015 1st All-SEC
Cam Robinson	LT	6'6, 310	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9979	15	29	2015 1st All-SEC
Alphonse Taylor	RG	6'5, 345	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9066	15	17
Ross Pierschbacher	C	6'4, 304	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9646	15	15
Dominick Jackson	RT					14	14
Brandon Greene	TE/OL	6'5, 300	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9445	1	3
Bradley Bozeman	RG	6'5, 319	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8708	0	2
Korren Kirven	LT	6'4, 311	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9288	1	1
Dallas Warmack	LG	6'2, 299	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9079	0	0
J.C. Hassenauer	C	6'2, 299	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9263	0	0
Lester Cotton	LG	6'4, 319	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9732	0	0
Josh Casher	C	6'1, 294	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8956	0	0
Richie Petitbon	RG	6'4, 302	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9671
Brandon Kennedy	RG	6'3, 301	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8973
Matt Womack	RT	6'7, 316	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610
Jonah Williams	RT	6'5, 296	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9873
Deonte Brown	OL	6'4, 350	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9237
Chris Owens	OL	6'3, 307	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9229
Scott Lashley	OL	6'7, 313	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9200

5. One really big loss

The 2015 line wasn't Alabama's best, but it was solid, and the fact that three starters return (including left tackle and likely All-American Cam Robinson) probably means it will be fine again.

But losing All-American center Ryan Kelly still hurts. Left guard Ross Pierschbacher moves to the middle, and maybe everything will be fine. While centers are replaceable, it makes you nervous until you see that the new guy isn't going to bomb three snaps per game over the QB's head.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.27	75	IsoPPP+	143.9	1
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	29.7%	2	Succ. Rt. +	156.6	1
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.2	10	Off. FP+	34.8	2
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.6	13	Redzone S&P+	150.6	2
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	32.3		ACTUAL	27.0	-5.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	1	1	1
RUSHING	1	1	1	1
PASSING	30	1	1	1
Standard Downs		1	1	2
Passing Downs		3	2	3

Q1 Rk	1	1st Down Rk	1
Q2 Rk	1	2nd Down Rk	2
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	2
Q4 Rk	28

6. A couple of injuries away from depth issues

Talking about injuries luck is always tricky. Anytime I point out that a team skated by with minimal injuries, fans can always respond with: "Well what about [Player A, who missed this one big game] and [Player B, the only guy who lost significant time]????"

Those are both legitimate points and beside the point. Everybody suffers injuries, but some teams suffer far fewer in a given year. And good luck tends to balance out.

Alabama's defensive continuity in 2015 was ... a little bit too good. I'm sure the Tide are on the cutting edge in health technology, but this was a little bit ridiculous.

• Seven linemen averaged at least half a tackle per game; combined games missed: zero.
• Seven linebackers averaged at least a tackle per game; combined games missed: zero.
• Nine defensive backs averaged at least three-quarters of a tackle per game; combined games missed: three.

Once the lineup was set at the beginning of the year, it almost didn't change, despite the fact that Alabama played 15 games. Having the depth to rotate guys helped. Most of the second string took quite a few snaps, and if a starter isn't on the field, he's not going to get hurt. Still, there was almost certainly luck here. And good luck doesn't tend to stick around for more than one season.

If luck skews the other direction, it could damage either the line or the secondary. Both appear a bit thin ... or at least, they could quickly become thin with a couple of ill-timed dings. Four of the top seven linemen are back, but experience vanishes after them. And while five of the top seven defensive backs return, quite a few backups do not, and it wouldn't take much for Bama to have to lean on freshmen.

This is another Bama kind of problem. The talent is obvious, and the starters are proven, but if a couple of bad things happen, then maybe this could eventually become an issue. You feel so sorry for them, don't you?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	132.8	2.28	2.55	28.6%	50.0%	25.5%	195.6	7.6%	13.3%
Rank	2	7	9	3	6	8	2	7	3

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jarran Reed	DE					15	37.0	5.2%	4.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	DE					15	32.0	4.5%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	1
Jonathan Allen	DE	6'3, 291	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9920	15	27.5	3.8%	14.5	12.0	0	4	2	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	DE	6'3, 305	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9162	15	23.0	3.2%	0.5	0.0	0	6	0	0
D.J. Pettway	DE					15	14.5	2.0%	5.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	DE	6'4, 280	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9978	15	11.5	1.6%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Daron Payne	NG	6'2, 319	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9870	15	9.5	1.3%	0.5	0.5	0	1	1	0
Joshua Frazier	NG	6'4, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9609	6	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darren Lake	NG					13	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Raekwon Davis	DL	6'7, 315	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9562
Quinnen Williams	DL	6'4, 284	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9281

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Reggie Ragland	MIKE					15	81.0	11.3%	6.5	2.5	0	7	2	0
Reuben Foster	WILL	6'1, 236	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9958	15	60.5	8.4%	8.0	1.0	0	9	0	0
Ryan Anderson	SAM	6'2, 253	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9618	15	29.0	4.0%	11.5	6.0	0	0	2	0
Dillon Lee	SAM					15	21.5	3.0%	1.5	1.0	2	1	0	0
Shaun Dion Hamilton	WILL	6'0, 232	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9173	15	20.5	2.9%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Denzel Devall	JACK					15	18.0	2.5%	5.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Tim Williams	JACK	6'4, 252	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9613	15	16.0	2.2%	12.5	10.5	0	1	0	0
Rashaan Evans	MIKE	6'3, 231	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9918	14	8.5	1.2%	4.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Keith Holcombe	WILL	6'4, 227	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8954	15	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Christian Miller	JACK	6'4, 230	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9796
Mekhi Brown	LB	6'5, 246	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9452
Anfernee Jennings	SAM	6'3, 264	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9237
Joshua McMillon	LB	6'3, 237	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9055
Ben Davis	LB	6'4, 234	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9951
Mack Wilson	LB	6'2, 244	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9879
Terrell Hall	LB	6'5, 247	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9663

7. The pass rush will be terrifying

Alabama was as dominant as ever in run defense last year. The Crimson Tide have all the biggest, meanest defensive linemen, and the blue-chip linebackers always flow to the ball and gang tackle incredibly well.

There was a new twist last year, however. Bama had a pass rush. After ranking 92nd in Adj. Sack Rate in 2014 and 103rd in 2013, the Crimson Tide surged to No. 2 in the country. Jonathan Allen logged 12 sacks (at 291 pounds, no less), and linebacker Ryan Anderson added six. Backup LBs Tim Williams and Rashaan Evans were specialists, but that specialty was pretty incredible; 14.5 of their 24.5 combined tackles were sacks.

Saban and longtime coordinator Kirby Smart seemed to tweak their aggression to adapt to tempo offenses. Efficiency is the oxygen that tempo offenses breathe, and a little more disruption went a long way. We, uh, didn't exactly hear much of that "Saban struggles against tempo" meme last year.

Alabama is going through the typical year-to-year attrition this year. Linemen Jarran Reed, A'Shawn Robinson, D.J. Pettway and linebackers Reggie Ragland, Dillon Lee, and Denzel Devall are all gone.

But the front seven still boasts impact upperclassmen, and the four biggest pieces of the awesome pass rush are all back. And while Smart is now Georgia's head coach, I'm doubting too much changes with new D.C. Jeremy Pruitt.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Geno Matias-Smith	FS					15	61.5	8.6%	1	0	1	1	1	0
Marlon Humphrey	CB	6'1, 196	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9940	15	40.0	5.6%	3.5	0	3	8	2	0
Eddie Jackson	SS	6'0, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8857	15	40.0	5.6%	3	0	6	2	1	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	CB	6'1, 203	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9867	14	37.5	5.2%	3	2	2	11	0	0
Cyrus Jones	CB					15	33.0	4.6%	4	0	2	7	2	1
Tony Brown	SS	6'0, 198	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9951	13	14.0	2.0%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Ronnie Harrison	FS	6'3, 216	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9175	15	14.0	2.0%	1	1	2	6	1	0
Bradley Sylve	CB					15	12.5	1.7%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Maurice Smith	CB					15	11.0	1.5%	1	1	0	1	1	0
Jabriel Washington	NB					8	5.0	0.7%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Shawn Burgess-Becker	SS					13	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Averett	CB	6'0, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.9008	6	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hootie Jones	FS	6'2, 215	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9753
Deionte Thompson	DB	6'2, 190	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9795
Nigel Knott	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9669
Shyheim Carter	DB	6'0, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9644
Jared Mayden	DB	6'0, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9307

8. Aggression looked good on the Tide

The pass rush had an added impact. After a couple of years of struggling with play-making in the secondary, a unit that was improving anyway also got to benefit from harried quarterbacks. In 2014, only 32 percent of opponent incompletions were due to passes defensed; in 2015, that rose to 40.4 percent. Unsurprisingly, opponents' completion rate fell from 54.4 percent to 50.5, and interceptions rose from 11 to 19.

There could be a depth problem in the back if someone gets hurt, but until then, the starting lineup is loaded. Corners Marlon Humphrey and Minkah Fitzpatrick combined for 6.5 TFLs, five picks, and 19 breakups last year, and safeties Eddie Jackson, Tony Brown, and Ronnie Harrison proved themselves as well. Brown is suspended for four games, which opens the door for a youngster at nickel back, but the first string should still be fine.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
JK Scott	6'6, 202	Jr.	70	44.2	9	18	17	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Adam Griffith	5'10, 191	Sr.	100	63.2	55	1	55.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Adam Griffith	5'10, 191	Sr.	62-62	16-21	76.2%	7-11	63.6%
JK Scott	6'6, 202	Jr.	1-1	0-1	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kenyan Drake	KR			19	26.6	1
Damien Harris	KR	5'11, 214	So.	9	19.3	0
Cyrus Jones	PR			42	12.6	4
Richard Mullaney	PR			2	15.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	54
Field Goal Efficiency	88
Punt Return Success Rate	11
Kick Return Success Rate	69
Punt Success Rate	39
Kickoff Success Rate	10

9. A bad unit came around

Adam Griffith missed his first four field goals of the year and six of his first 12, then went 17-for-20 thereafter. His touchback rate was 39 percent through six games, then 65 percent from there. JK Scott averaged 39.4 yards per punt through five games, then averaged 46.7. Cyrus Jones' first 25 punt returns produced an average of 8.8 yards; his next 17 averaged 18.3 with four touchdowns.

Alabama's special teams unit was bad in September, solid in October, and one of the best in the country in November and beyond. The loss of Jones and Kenyan Drake in the return game hurts, but if Griffith and Scott pick up where they left off, special teams won't be a concern in 2016. (And if they don't, it will probably only be a concern for a little while.)

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	vs. USC	8	9.6	71%
10-Sep	Western Kentucky	45	24.7	92%
17-Sep	at Ole Miss	7	4.4	60%
24-Sep	Kent State	104	38.8	99%
1-Oct	Kentucky	83	32.7	97%
8-Oct	at Arkansas	17	8.1	68%
15-Oct	at Tennessee	9	6.4	64%
22-Oct	Texas A&M	25	17.8	85%
5-Nov	at LSU	2	-1.1	47%
12-Nov	Mississippi State	21	16.7	83%
19-Nov	Chattanooga	NR	44.9	100%
26-Nov	Auburn	24	17.8	85%
Projected wins: 9.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	65.7% (1)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	1 / 1
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	10 / 15.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	-1.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	55% (45%, 66%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	13.1 (-0.1)

10. Bama vs. little things

Alabama has won the national title in four of seven years and will begin 2016 as a favorite to win a fifth in eight. The reasons are obvious. Bama should still have an elite defense, and the raw ingredients on offense should congeal, even if slowly.

The biggest Bama enemies in 2016 will be the Little Things™ that trip teams up sometimes (and have helped to trip the Tide up in three of the last seven seasons). Maybe the new center struggles to approach the standard set by Kelly. Maybe the new quarterback makes some iffy reads in key moments. Maybe the new running back fumbles a few times. Maybe injuries force the line defense to turn to freshmen. Maybe this (*GASP*) leads to a couple of Bama losses and only a 10- or 11-win season and opens the door for a new champion.

(Alabama will face five projected top-20 teams away from Tuscaloosa. These bad breaks tend to magnify away from home.)

If this happens, though, try your hardest to avoid going down the "The Dynasty is dying!!!" road. Until Alabama's recruiting takes a step backward, a recent run of young transfers continues, and new coordinator hires become clear missteps, the ship is still sailing.

In about five months, there's a very good chance we'll be watching Saban lift another trophy.