A couple of injuries here, a suspension there, and your numbers are blown to bits.
Creating preseason projections is the most temporary of exercises, but I like to think it's a valuable one. It helps to set the most realistic possible projections, albeit in a sport that loves to regularly stray from reality.
Back in February, before the offseason preview series began, I posted projected S&P+ numbers based on initial returning production figures, recruiting rankings, and recent performance history. As is my custom, it's now time to update those. These numbers are based on the same three questions -- How have you done lately? Who have you lost? How good are the guys replacing them? -- but the recruiting numbers have changed slightly, and as of Thursday, the returning production figures are also updated.
There aren't too many massive changes in the numbers below. Some teams got slight bumps because of transfers or changes in those returning production figures, but for the most part the changes have been relegated to a couple of points here and there. But since the goal is to set expectations for the coming months as properly as possible, I'm also including the following, in addition to projected rating and average projected wins:
- Each team's projected offensive and defensive ratings (something not included in February).
- Each team's odds of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better, 6-6 or better (i.e. bowl-eligible), and 1-11 or worse.
Enjoy.
Team | PROJ. 2016 S&P+ | Rk | Off. S&P+ | Rk | Def. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Wins | 11+ wins | Bowl-Eligible | 0-1 wins |
Alabama | 30.4 | 1 | 36.9 | 23 | 6.5 | 1 | 9.8 | 31.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
Clemson | 27.2 | 2 | 45.7 | 1 | 18.5 | 16 | 10.4 | 49.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
LSU | 26.7 | 3 | 44.8 | 3 | 18.1 | 12 | 9.5 | 23.6% | 99.8% | 0.0% |
Oklahoma | 24.0 | 4 | 44.1 | 6 | 20.1 | 21 | 10.0 | 35.8% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
Florida State | 22.4 | 5 | 41.5 | 9 | 19.1 | 18 | 8.9 | 12.7% | 99.0% | 0.0% |
Michigan | 22.4 | 6 | 34.9 | 33 | 12.5 | 2 | 10.1 | 37.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Ole Miss | 20.9 | 7 | 43.0 | 8 | 22.1 | 27 | 8.0 | 3.4% | 95.6% | 0.0% |
Tennessee | 19.2 | 8 | 36.4 | 24 | 17.2 | 9 | 9.1 | 13.1% | 99.5% | 0.0% |
USC | 19.0 | 9 | 40.4 | 13 | 21.4 | 25 | 7.8 | 2.8% | 94.2% | 0.0% |
Washington | 19.0 | 10 | 34.7 | 36 | 15.7 | 6 | 9.3 | 18.6% | 99.7% | 0.0% |
Ohio State | 18.7 | 11 | 37.6 | 19 | 18.9 | 17 | 8.5 | 7.3% | 98.1% | 0.0% |
Georgia | 17.9 | 12 | 32.3 | 47 | 14.4 | 4 | 9.0 | 13.1% | 99.3% | 0.0% |
Notre Dame | 17.7 | 13 | 44.3 | 5 | 26.6 | 48 | 8.7 | 9.5% | 98.2% | 0.0% |
Oregon | 17.6 | 14 | 44.5 | 4 | 26.9 | 52 | 8.7 | 9.2% | 98.5% | 0.0% |
UCLA | 17.4 | 15 | 39.4 | 14 | 21.9 | 26 | 8.8 | 11.5% | 98.6% | 0.0% |
Stanford | 17.1 | 16 | 40.8 | 12 | 23.7 | 35 | 8.2 | 4.2% | 97.0% | 0.0% |
Arkansas | 16.9 | 17 | 40.9 | 11 | 24.0 | 37 | 7.5 | 1.7% | 90.9% | 0.0% |
Louisville | 16.4 | 18 | 36.0 | 27 | 19.6 | 20 | 8.6 | 7.8% | 98.5% | 0.0% |
Baylor | 14.9 | 19 | 43.0 | 7 | 28.1 | 60 | 8.6 | 7.8% | 98.9% | 0.0% |
Florida | 14.4 | 20 | 29.7 | 66 | 15.2 | 5 | 7.9 | 2.0% | 97.1% | 0.0% |
Michigan State | 14.4 | 21 | 32.6 | 45 | 18.2 | 13 | 7.8 | 3.3% | 93.9% | 0.0% |
Mississippi State | 14.0 | 22 | 37.2 | 20 | 23.2 | 32 | 7.4 | 0.7% | 92.3% | 0.0% |
Texas A&M | 13.5 | 23 | 32.6 | 44 | 19.1 | 19 | 6.7 | 0.3% | 79.6% | 0.0% |
Oklahoma State | 13.0 | 24 | 41.0 | 10 | 28.0 | 58 | 8.0 | 3.2% | 95.7% | 0.0% |
Auburn | 12.9 | 25 | 35.0 | 32 | 22.1 | 28 | 6.3 | 0.1% | 72.7% | 0.0% |
TCU | 12.7 | 26 | 37.7 | 18 | 24.9 | 39 | 7.8 | 2.9% | 94.4% | 0.0% |
Nebraska | 12.0 | 27 | 39.0 | 15 | 27.0 | 53 | 7.9 | 3.5% | 94.9% | 0.0% |
Penn State | 11.9 | 28 | 30.2 | 61 | 18.3 | 14 | 7.5 | 2.0% | 90.7% | 0.0% |
Pittsburgh | 11.9 | 29 | 35.0 | 31 | 23.2 | 31 | 7.3 | 1.2% | 88.5% | 0.0% |
North Carolina | 11.1 | 30 | 38.6 | 16 | 27.5 | 54 | 7.3 | 1.2% | 88.8% | 0.0% |
Miami-FL | 10.9 | 31 | 36.4 | 25 | 25.5 | 43 | 7.1 | 1.1% | 85.7% | 0.0% |
Texas | 9.9 | 32 | 33.1 | 41 | 23.2 | 33 | 6.9 | 0.7% | 81.6% | 0.0% |
Virginia Tech | 9.6 | 33 | 30.1 | 63 | 20.5 | 23 | 6.9 | 0.6% | 81.5% | 0.0% |
BYU | 9.5 | 34 | 32.1 | 48 | 22.7 | 29 | 7.2 | 1.3% | 86.8% | 0.0% |
West Virginia | 9.1 | 35 | 37.2 | 21 | 28.1 | 59 | 6.9 | 0.7% | 81.8% | 0.0% |
Wisconsin | 9.0 | 36 | 24.9 | 94 | 15.9 | 7 | 6.3 | 0.2% | 70.5% | 0.0% |
Boise State | 8.8 | 37 | 34.4 | 38 | 25.6 | 44 | 9.5 | 23.5% | 99.6% | 0.0% |
Minnesota | 8.3 | 38 | 31.8 | 51 | 23.5 | 34 | 7.8 | 2.9% | 94.0% | 0.0% |
Utah | 8.2 | 39 | 25.9 | 86 | 17.7 | 11 | 6.7 | 0.5% | 77.5% | 0.0% |
Iowa | 8.2 | 40 | 31.2 | 57 | 23.0 | 30 | 7.4 | 1.5% | 88.7% | 0.0% |
NC State | 7.5 | 41 | 32.4 | 46 | 24.9 | 40 | 6.2 | 0.1% | 68.3% | 0.0% |
South Florida | 7.3 | 42 | 33.7 | 40 | 26.5 | 46 | 8.1 | 4.2% | 95.5% | 0.0% |
Western Kentucky | 7.0 | 43 | 37.8 | 17 | 30.8 | 77 | 9.1 | 11.1% | 99.7% | 0.0% |
Texas Tech | 5.5 | 44 | 44.9 | 2 | 39.4 | 122 | 6.2 | 0.2% | 68.6% | 0.0% |
Toledo | 5.0 | 45 | 31.6 | 55 | 26.6 | 47 | 8.5 | 7.9% | 97.8% | 0.0% |
Washington State | 4.6 | 46 | 34.7 | 35 | 30.1 | 71 | 6.1 | 0.1% | 66.3% | 0.0% |
Syracuse | 4.5 | 47 | 32.1 | 49 | 27.5 | 55 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 40.5% | 0.5% |
Houston | 4.5 | 48 | 35.4 | 30 | 31.0 | 82 | 7.8 | 2.0% | 94.7% | 0.0% |
Northwestern | 4.2 | 49 | 22.5 | 104 | 18.3 | 15 | 5.9 | 0.1% | 59.8% | 0.2% |
San Diego State | 4.0 | 50 | 25.2 | 92 | 21.1 | 24 | 8.9 | 13.4% | 98.9% | 0.0% |
Duke | 3.9 | 51 | 27.7 | 73 | 23.8 | 36 | 5.8 | 0.1% | 56.4% | 0.1% |
Arizona State | 3.7 | 52 | 34.2 | 39 | 30.4 | 75 | 5.7 | 0.0% | 55.3% | 0.1% |
Georgia Tech | 3.6 | 53 | 34.6 | 37 | 30.9 | 80 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 44.3% | 0.3% |
California | 3.6 | 54 | 36.0 | 28 | 32.4 | 88 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 1.1% |
Georgia Southern | 3.4 | 55 | 34.7 | 34 | 31.3 | 85 | 8.2 | 3.5% | 97.3% | 0.0% |
Boston College | 3.4 | 56 | 17.0 | 124 | 13.6 | 3 | 6.2 | 0.1% | 70.0% | 0.0% |
Missouri | 3.2 | 57 | 19.9 | 116 | 16.7 | 8 | 5.8 | 0.0% | 58.0% | 0.0% |
Appalachian State | 3.2 | 58 | 29.9 | 65 | 26.6 | 49 | 8.3 | 4.5% | 97.9% | 0.0% |
Indiana | 3.0 | 59 | 35.8 | 29 | 32.9 | 93 | 5.9 | 0.1% | 59.7% | 0.1% |
Temple | 2.8 | 60 | 26.8 | 81 | 24.0 | 38 | 8.3 | 5.2% | 97.3% | 0.0% |
Bowling Green | 2.5 | 61 | 32.6 | 43 | 30.1 | 70 | 8.0 | 2.8% | 95.9% | 0.0% |
Navy | 2.3 | 62 | 31.8 | 53 | 29.4 | 65 | 7.6 | 1.9% | 91.9% | 0.0% |
Maryland | 2.2 | 63 | 31.2 | 58 | 29.0 | 63 | 5.8 | 0.0% | 57.6% | 0.1% |
Western Michigan | 1.9 | 64 | 37.0 | 22 | 35.1 | 106 | 7.8 | 3.2% | 93.1% | 0.0% |
Arizona | 1.4 | 65 | 36.3 | 26 | 34.9 | 104 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 46.2% | 0.1% |
Kansas State | 1.2 | 66 | 30.2 | 62 | 29.0 | 62 | 5.1 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 0.1% |
Cincinnati | 1.2 | 67 | 31.7 | 54 | 30.6 | 76 | 7.1 | 1.3% | 84.7% | 0.0% |
Vanderbilt | 1.0 | 68 | 18.4 | 119 | 17.4 | 10 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 32.3% | 0.5% |
Virginia | 1.0 | 69 | 33.0 | 42 | 32.0 | 87 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 33.7% | 1.0% |
Southern Miss | 0.9 | 70 | 30.7 | 60 | 29.8 | 67 | 8.6 | 6.2% | 98.7% | 0.0% |
Utah State | 0.7 | 71 | 27.5 | 75 | 26.8 | 51 | 6.9 | 0.4% | 82.2% | 0.0% |
Illinois | 0.5 | 72 | 25.5 | 90 | 25.0 | 42 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 36.1% | 0.5% |
Marshall | 0.1 | 73 | 26.7 | 82 | 26.7 | 50 | 7.6 | 1.5% | 93.0% | 0.0% |
Wake Forest | 0.0 | 74 | 26.1 | 84 | 26.1 | 45 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
Iowa State | -0.2 | 75 | 27.6 | 74 | 27.9 | 56 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 0.7% |
South Carolina | -0.4 | 76 | 31.4 | 56 | 31.9 | 86 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 30.8% | 0.4% |
Northern Illinois | -0.9 | 77 | 27.0 | 79 | 27.9 | 57 | 7.1 | 1.0% | 84.3% | 0.0% |
Memphis | -1.2 | 78 | 30.0 | 64 | 31.1 | 83 | 6.5 | 0.2% | 73.6% | 0.0% |
Air Force | -1.5 | 79 | 27.3 | 77 | 28.7 | 61 | 7.9 | 3.6% | 94.3% | 0.0% |
Central Michigan | -3.1 | 80 | 27.1 | 78 | 30.2 | 74 | 6.9 | 0.4% | 82.5% | 0.0% |
Connecticut | -3.1 | 81 | 21.9 | 108 | 25.0 | 41 | 5.8 | 0.1% | 57.3% | 0.1% |
Louisiana Tech | -3.6 | 82 | 31.8 | 52 | 35.5 | 108 | 7.1 | 0.5% | 87.7% | 0.0% |
Rutgers | -4.0 | 83 | 29.2 | 68 | 33.2 | 95 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 12.0% | 1.9% |
East Carolina | -4.1 | 84 | 26.8 | 80 | 31.0 | 81 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 44.2% | 0.4% |
Purdue | -4.1 | 85 | 26.1 | 85 | 30.2 | 73 | 4.3 | 0.0% | 21.8% | 2.2% |
Colorado | -4.2 | 86 | 25.7 | 89 | 29.9 | 69 | 3.9 | 0.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% |
Kentucky | -4.4 | 87 | 25.7 | 88 | 30.2 | 72 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 12.3% | 1.2% |
Arkansas State | -4.5 | 88 | 25.4 | 91 | 29.9 | 68 | 6.9 | 0.5% | 83.1% | 0.0% |
Oregon State | -5.3 | 89 | 27.4 | 76 | 32.6 | 91 | 3.5 | 0.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
Nevada | -6.1 | 90 | 28.8 | 69 | 34.8 | 103 | 6.4 | 0.2% | 71.1% | 0.1% |
San Jose State | -6.1 | 91 | 27.7 | 72 | 33.8 | 97 | 5.8 | 0.1% | 58.8% | 0.2% |
Tulsa | -6.4 | 92 | 32.0 | 50 | 38.4 | 121 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 47.5% | 0.3% |
Middle Tennessee | -6.4 | 93 | 28.1 | 71 | 34.5 | 100 | 6.2 | 0.2% | 68.6% | 0.0% |
Akron | -7.6 | 94 | 21.5 | 111 | 29.0 | 64 | 5.3 | 0.0% | 45.2% | 0.4% |
Ohio | -7.7 | 95 | 25.0 | 93 | 32.7 | 92 | 6.3 | 0.1% | 71.5% | 0.0% |
Colorado State | -8.0 | 96 | 28.6 | 70 | 36.5 | 113 | 5.7 | 0.0% | 55.3% | 0.1% |
SMU | -8.8 | 97 | 31.1 | 59 | 39.9 | 123 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 24.4% | 1.6% |
Fresno State | -8.9 | 98 | 22.3 | 105 | 31.2 | 84 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 40.5% | 0.5% |
Central Florida | -9.3 | 99 | 20.4 | 113 | 29.7 | 66 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 25.3% | 1.3% |
Florida Atlantic | -9.5 | 100 | 21.3 | 112 | 30.9 | 78 | 5.7 | 0.0% | 55.7% | 0.2% |
Ball State | -10.1 | 101 | 24.5 | 98 | 34.6 | 101 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 40.8% | 0.7% |
Troy | -10.6 | 102 | 23.3 | 100 | 33.9 | 98 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 53.7% | 0.1% |
Old Dominion | -10.6 | 103 | 24.6 | 96 | 35.2 | 107 | 5.7 | 0.0% | 54.1% | 0.2% |
Georgia State | -10.8 | 104 | 23.2 | 101 | 34.0 | 99 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 46.7% | 0.4% |
New Mexico | -11.0 | 105 | 24.6 | 97 | 35.5 | 109 | 5.4 | 0.0% | 47.0% | 0.4% |
Kent State | -11.4 | 106 | 9.0 | 128 | 20.4 | 22 | 4.7 | 0.0% | 27.8% | 0.9% |
Buffalo | -12.8 | 107 | 19.7 | 117 | 32.6 | 90 | 4.9 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 0.6% |
UL-Lafayette | -12.9 | 108 | 21.9 | 107 | 34.8 | 102 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 0.8% |
Idaho | -13.5 | 109 | 29.3 | 67 | 42.8 | 127 | 5.1 | 0.0% | 40.9% | 0.7% |
Wyoming | -14.0 | 110 | 22.5 | 103 | 36.6 | 114 | 3.9 | 0.0% | 14.1% | 3.8% |
Miami-OH | -14.1 | 111 | 19.1 | 118 | 33.2 | 94 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 18.0% | 3.3% |
UNLV | -14.3 | 112 | 23.5 | 99 | 37.8 | 118 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 22.7% | 1.2% |
Florida International | -14.8 | 113 | 22.7 | 102 | 37.4 | 117 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 21.2% | 3.4% |
South Alabama | -14.9 | 114 | 20.1 | 114 | 34.9 | 105 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 22.9% | 1.2% |
Kansas | -14.9 | 115 | 21.7 | 110 | 36.7 | 115 | 2.4 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 22.0% |
UTSA | -15.6 | 116 | 19.9 | 115 | 35.6 | 110 | 4.8 | 0.0% | 30.1% | 0.6% |
Hawaii | -15.6 | 117 | 18.0 | 120 | 33.7 | 96 | 3.8 | 0.0% | 10.5% | 0.9% |
Rice | -15.9 | 118 | 22.3 | 106 | 38.1 | 120 | 4.6 | 0.0% | 26.3% | 1.0% |
New Mexico State | -16.2 | 119 | 26.6 | 83 | 42.8 | 128 | 3.9 | 0.0% | 14.2% | 5.0% |
Texas State | -16.7 | 120 | 25.8 | 87 | 42.5 | 125 | 4.3 | 0.0% | 20.2% | 2.4% |
Charlotte | -17.5 | 121 | 13.4 | 126 | 30.9 | 79 | 4.2 | 0.0% | 17.3% | 2.5% |
Eastern Michigan | -17.9 | 122 | 24.8 | 95 | 42.8 | 126 | 3.7 | 0.0% | 9.1% | 4.2% |
Massachusetts | -18.7 | 123 | 17.7 | 121 | 36.4 | 112 | 3.3 | 0.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% |
Army | -19.9 | 124 | 17.4 | 123 | 37.3 | 116 | 4.1 | 0.0% | 13.0% | 1.0% |
UTEP | -20.0 | 125 | 21.8 | 109 | 41.8 | 124 | 4.6 | 0.0% | 26.7% | 1.0% |
Tulane | -20.0 | 126 | 12.4 | 127 | 32.5 | 89 | 3.1 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 11.3% |
UL-Monroe | -20.2 | 127 | 17.7 | 122 | 37.9 | 119 | 3.3 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% |
North Texas | -21.0 | 128 | 14.8 | 125 | 35.8 | 111 | 3.1 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 12.1% |
Some clear favorites in the Playoff race
Here are the top 10 power conference teams, according to the likelihood of reaching 11 or more wins:
- Clemson (49.8%)
- Michigan (37.5%)
- Oklahoma (35.8%)
- Alabama (31.1%)
- LSU (23.6%)
- Washington (18.6%)
- Georgia (13.1%)
- Tennessee (13.1%)
- Florida State (12.7%)
- UCLA (11.5%)
In a roundabout way, that's also a Most Likely to Reach the Playoff list. Obviously, you get a boost from winning a conference title, and simply looking at record ignores strength of schedule, so there's not a direct correlation here. Still, if you assume that teams 11-1 or better are getting the first crack at the semifinals, conference title or not, this clues you in pretty well.
Per S&P+, Clemson has a less than 73 percent chance of winning in just one game (53 percent at Florida State on October 29), and Michigan's below 73 percent just twice (at Michigan State and at Ohio State). Oklahoma has quite a few games in the 70-percent range, but none are lower than 67 percent.
The sadness list
Right now, there are 81 teams with at least a 50 percent shot at reaching bowl eligibility. As there are 41 bowls, and therefore 82 bowl bids, that means we *might* not end up with any 5-7 teams in the postseason this year ... but we'll probably end up with one or two.
But never mind that. Let's get to the real pressing question: Who's finishing 0-12 or 1-11? Here are the 10 teams with the best strongest odds:
- Kansas (22.0%)
- North Texas (12.1%)
- Tulane (11.3%)
- UL-Monroe (7.9%)
- UMass (6.8%)
- Oregon State (5.2%)
- NMSU (5.0%)
- Eastern Michigan (4.2%)
- Wyoming (3.8%)
- FIU (3.4%)
It bears mentioning that North Texas, Tulane, and ULM are all heading into 2016 with new coaches, and that probably means that at least one of them will stray pretty far from expectations. With Willie Fritz's résumé, my guess is that Tulane won't approach 0-12 or 1-11. But the numbers don't take coaching changes, the most zero-sum of games, into account.
So that's that. We can now begin the season and watch which players and teams completely wreck the numbers' expectations.