How Mizzou can bounce back on the field from an extremely ... memorable 2015

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. A memorable, mediocre campaign

5-7 seasons are about as unmemorable as it gets. You weren't terrible; you won five games. You clearly weren't that good, because you lost more than you won.

Look at Missouri's 2012, for example. The Tigers went 5-7, and while there were some fun moments (beating Tennessee in overtime in Knoxville) and some miserable ones (losing to Vanderbilt at home after the starting quarterback got hurt, losing to Syracuse at home after suspending the best player on the team for skipping class), it was mostly forgettable.

After going 23-5 in 2013-14, Mizzou went 5-7 again. And it was one of the most unforgettable campaigns in the school's recent history. And very little of it had to do with the season on the field.

September 29: Starting quarterback Maty Mauk is suspended for disciplinary reasons, making Drew Lock the first true-freshman QB Gary Pinkel has ever started at Missouri.

November 1: Not long after his reinstatement, Mauk is suspended for the season. (He will end up dismissed for good.)

November 7: Missouri players announce they will boycott the game against BYU in support of race-related protests on campus. For them to play, UM president Tim Wolfe will have to resign. November 8, Pinkel expresses support for his players. November 9, Wolfe resigns. The game goes on.

November 13: Pinkel announces he is retiring at the end of the season to fight non-Hodgkin lymphoma, bringing a sudden end to the career of the winningest coach in both Missouri and Toledo history.

Amid this, Missouri's offense crumbled to the ground.

The Tigers' two best offensive players, running back Russell Hansbrough and center Evan Boehm, suffered injuries in the first quarter of the first game, and both limped through most of the season half-effective. The receiving corps was double-dipping in experience, replacing all three starters for the second straight year and bungling with freshmen, sophomores, and career reserves. With tackle Connor McGovern playing out of position and a cast of characters unready for prime time, Mizzou's offensive line was an outright debacle.

Add a freshman QB -- even a good one -- and you've got the perfect recipe for disaster.

Despite another fantastic defense (Mizzou was 13th in Def. S&P+), the Tigers plodded through unwatchable games: a 9-6 win over UConn, a 21-13 loss to Kentucky, a 21-3 loss to Florida, a 9-6 loss to Georgia, a 10-3 loss to Vanderbilt, a 19-8 loss to Tennessee. Mizzou allowed 21 or fewer points in 10 of 12 games but only won five of those.

Mizzou looked to defensive coordinator Barry Odom to succeed Pinkel. The former Tiger linebacker thrived as DC at Memphis and Missouri and created a pathway for Mizzou to pull off both continuity and major change (Odom only retained three assistants). He has remodeled almost the entire offensive coaching staff, and with graduate transfers and JUCOs, he has attempted to breathe life into a suddenly moribund offense.

If new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel's unit can rebound to mediocrity, the Tigers' defense will be good enough to win some games. But for anybody who watched last year's offense attempting to pull off even two decent plays in a row, it's easy to think of just how far away mediocrity is.

Most of the national Mizzou story lines remain focused on the protest and the ongoing instability, including an interim chancellor, interim president, and apparently a third interim athletic director. But to his credit, Odom has simply gotten to work.

The team practiced most of the spring away from the watchful eye of the media (and evidently will again in August) and enters the season with almost no expectations. But they should still boast one of the nation's best defenses, and hey, the offense has almost literally nowhere to go but up.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 75 | Final S&P+ Rk: 85
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	SE Missouri State	N/A	34-3	W	81%	99%	+4.6
12-Sep	at Arkansas State	71	27-20	W	73%	72%	-6.9	-3.5
19-Sep	Connecticut	80	9-6	W	72%	85%	-26.0	-18.0
26-Sep	at Kentucky	91	13-21	L	23%	8%	-15.4	-5.0
3-Oct	South Carolina	88	24-10	W	68%	81%	+16.3	+10.0
10-Oct	Florida	27	3-21	L	30%	5%	+5.6	-12.0
17-Oct	at Georgia	30	6-9	L	43%	11%	+10.2	+13.0
24-Oct	at Vanderbilt	83	3-10	L	15%	2%	-3.2	-9.5
5-Nov	Mississippi State	16	13-31	L	20%	1%	-5.5	-10.5
14-Nov	vs. BYU	35	20-16	W	71%	64%	+17.8	+10.5
21-Nov	Tennessee	18	8-19	L	38%	7%	-0.8	-2.5
27-Nov	at Arkansas	11	3-28	L	10%	0%	-8.1	-11.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	16.5	120	19.4	13
Points Per Game	13.6	127	16.2	5

2. Hopeless (and within one possession)

Missouri lost seven games in 2015, but only one got truly out of hand: the last one, in Fayetteville.

Even in double-digit losses to Florida and Tennessee, the defense played well enough that the Tigers could have stayed in with just a modicum of offense. But that modicum never came, especially against good teams.

• Mizzou vs. top 30:
  Record: 0-5 | Average percentile performance: 28% (~top 90) | Yards per play: Opp 4.6, MU 3.9 (-0.7)
• Mizzou vs. everyone else:
  Record: 5-2 | Average percentile performance: 58% (~top 55) | Yards per play: MU 4.7, Opp 4.1 (+0.6)

You aren't going to find teams that were more defensively successful against good teams than this; against top-30 opponents, the Tigers allowed 4.6 yards per play and 22 points per game. And they went 0-5.

Missouri ... Boston College ... Northwestern ... there were quite a few teams with fantastic defenses and dreadful offenses in 2015. The bar is set pretty low for the Tigers' attack this fall, but they can clear that bar if a completely rebuilt offensive line can hold up.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	91	IsoPPP+	76.6	122
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	30.9%	126	Succ. Rt. +	79.6	121
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	92	Def. FP+	28.2	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	2.9	126	Redzone S&P+	76.2	126
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.7		ACTUAL	17	-4.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	125	120	121	122
RUSHING	120	124	123	120
PASSING	113	119	115	119
Standard Downs		124	125	122
Passing Downs		112	110	113

Q1 Rk	115	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	122	2nd Down Rk	124
Q3 Rk	117	3rd Down Rk	101
Q4 Rk	115

3. A Heupel offense

Say this much for Heupel: he's adaptable. The former Oklahoma and Utah State coordinator runs the ball when his guys can run, throws when they can throw, employs tempo when they're doing well, and doesn't when they aren't.

In 2014 at OU, with Samaje Perine in the backfield and a limited passing game, Heupel's offense skewed pretty run-heavy. In 2015 at USU, with a nice dual-threat in Kent Myers running the show for much of the season, Heupel went out of his way to keep his QBs in comfortable downs and distances, passing frequently on standard downs and running quite a bit on passing downs.

There isn't a Heupel system, only an attempted emphasis of strength.

So ... what are Missouri's strengths?

• Lock still has a great arm. The former blue-chipper was thrust into a starting role and got almost no help. He ended up having a dreadful season, going 2-6 in games he started and completing under 50 percent of his passes. But if he can mature, and if Heupel (long regarded as a strong QBs coach) can get his development turned back in the right direction, Mizzou can still hope to utilize his beautiful right arm.
• Running back Alex Ross is explosive. Heupel isn't the only OU import; Ross comes as a graduate transfer after getting squeezed out by Perine and Joe Mixon. He isn't as efficient as his big body would suggest, but he's also a hell of a lot faster than it would suggest. Mizzou had no run explosiveness last season.
• Running back Ish Witter is a custom-made third-down back. He had a huge catch and run in the win over BYU, and Lock was dumping to him a lot on third downs in the spring game. He hasn't yet proven a worthy scatback successor to players like Henry Josey, Marcus Murphy, or Hansbrough, but his pass-catching ability will be utilized.
• The receiving corps is more experienced. Last year's freshmen and sophomores are this year's sophomores and juniors, and Odom added another graduate transfer in Alabama's Chris Black, who could provide an efficiency option in the slot.

These pieces alone don't a good offense make. But you can see what Heupel might attempt to craft, mixing balance on standard downs (plenty of running, plenty of quick, horizontal passes) with lots of screens and checkdowns on third downs. If it works, then it can stress defenses enough to open things vertically. If it doesn't, Mizzou spends another year going three-and-out a lot.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2016 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Drew Lock

6'4, 205

So.

4 stars (5.8)

0.9535

129

263

1332

4

8

49.0%

25

8.7%

4.1

Maty Mauk

57

110

654

6

4

51.8%

5

4.3%

5.5

Marvin Zanders

6'1, 185

So.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8169

Jack Lowary

6'4, 215

So.

2 stars (5.4)

N/A

Micah Wilson

6'3, 205

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8404

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ish Witter	TB	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8463	126	518	1	4.1	3.8	33.3%	2	2
Russell Hansbrough	TB					111	436	1	3.9	4.2	30.6%	2	0
Tyler Hunt	TB					42	185	1	4.4	7.8	26.2%	2	0
Alex Ross (Oklahoma)	TB	6'1, 220	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9636	32	172	1	5.4	5.8	37.5%	2	2
Maty Mauk	QB					31	165	1	5.3	7.2	35.5%	3	0
Drew Lock	QB	6'4, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9535	27	184	1	6.8	6.5	48.1%	2	0
Morgan Steward	TB					10	18	0	1.8	1.6	10.0%	0	0
Chase Abbington	TB					6	39	0	6.5	3.1	66.7%	0	0
Trevon Walters	TB	5'10, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8540
Ryan Williams	TB	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Nate Strong	TB	?	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8959
Damarea Crockett	TB	5'11, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8664

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
J'Mon Moore	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8653	65	29	350	44.6%	18.7%	5.4	50.8%	33.8%	1.48
Nate Brown	WR	6'3, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8922	58	27	326	46.6%	16.7%	5.6	60.3%	41.4%	1.27
Wesley Leftwich	WR					53	22	285	41.5%	15.3%	5.4	47.2%	30.2%	1.53
Jason Reese	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8376	27	15	126	55.6%	7.8%	4.7	48.1%	37.0%	1.08
Sean Culkin	TE	6'6, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8641	26	16	139	61.5%	7.5%	5.3	61.5%	42.3%	1.11
Russell Hansbrough	TB					21	17	59	81.0%	6.1%	2.8	42.9%	19.0%	1.12
Ish Witter	TB	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8463	20	15	143	75.0%	5.8%	7.2	40.0%	30.0%	2.19
Chris Black (Alabama)	SLOT	6'0, 192	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9768	18	15	188	83.3%	4.1%	10.4	72.2%	N/A	N/A
Emanuel Hall	WR	6'3, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8498	17	8	64	47.1%	4.9%	3.8	47.1%	29.4%	0.98
Keyon Dilosa	WR	6'3, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8141	15	11	86	73.3%	4.3%	5.7	73.3%	53.3%	0.86
Cam Hilton	WR					12	9	129	75.0%	3.5%	10.8	41.7%	66.7%	1.55
Ray Wingo	SLOT	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8733	8	4	24	50.0%	2.3%	3.0	62.5%	25.0%	0.88
Tyler Hunt	TB					7	6	203	85.7%	2.0%	29.0	28.6%	71.4%	4.05
DeSean Blair	WR	6'3, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8582	5	2	25	40.0%	1.4%	5.0	40.0%	20.0%	1.99
Johnathon Johnson	WR	5'10, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8615
Justin Smith	WR	6'7, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8431
Richaud Floyd	WR	5'11, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8419
Dominic Collins	WR	6'2, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367

4. Experience + complements

Depending on who wins the job, Mizzou could end up starting a senior running back, a senior tight end, and two juniors and a senior at wide receiver. This experience didn't exist last year, especially with Hansbrough so limited. And experience and continuity are very good things, especially in the passing game.

Quality still matters more. Ross appears to have lovely upside, as do a couple of new four-star additions in the backfield (JUCO transfer Nate Strong, freshman Damarea Crockett), but the receiving corps still looks like a bunch of complementary pieces. Maybe we call that depth if some true quality emerges.

J'Mon Moore was, like Hansbrough, playing hurt for much of the season. If healthy, maybe he has more upside than he showed in putting together a dreadful 34 percent success rate as Mizzou's No. 1 target. But he bears the burden of proof.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.4	2.2	3.71	32.9%	48.4%	24.5%	85.7	7.3%	7.4%
Rank	102	126	23	119	126	117	85	109	64

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Evan Boehm	C					12	52
Connor McGovern	LT					12	40
Taylor Chappell	RT					8	18
Brad McNulty	LG					3	18
Mitch Hall	RG					12	16
Nate Crawford	LG					8	8
Michael Stannard (Memphis)	C	6'2, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	1	8
Alec Abeln	LG	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8117	3	3
Malik Cuellar	LT					0	0
Paul Adams	RT	6'6, 290	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	0	0
Kevin Pendleton	RG	6'4, 315	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8335	0	0
Samson Bailey	C	6'4, 265	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8019	0	0
AJ Harris	OL	6'4, 285	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8894
Tyrell Jacobs	OL	6'4, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8399
Tanner Owen	OL	6'5, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8190
Tyler Howell	OL	6'8, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8808
Kyle Mitchell	OL	6'5, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Darvis Holmes	OL	6'5, 315	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.9566
Tre'Vour Simms	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467
Trystan Castillo	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8446

5. Good luck, Glen Elarbee

A year ago, Elarbee was Arkansas State's line coach, attempting to improve a reasonably experienced line that had suffered quite a few glitches in 2014. He succeeded -- ASU produced two all-conference performers in Colton Jackson and Jemar Clark, improved from 107th to 46th in Adj. Line Yards, and improved from 79th to 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate.

This solid performance, plus his growing reputation as a recruiter, got him promoted to the SEC. And now he faces a much tougher challenge.

Mizzou should improve at quarterback, with Lock no longer an overwhelmed freshman. The Tigers should improve at running back with the addition of Ross and the aforementioned four-stars. They should improve at least a little bit at receiver, just because of Black and experience.

But it's hard to look at the state of the line and get even slightly optimistic. The Tigers were a horrific 102nd in Adj. Line Yards and an embarrassing 126th in power success rate ... and they now return all of three career starts, 11 if you count those from Memphis graduate transfer Michael Stannard.

Odom did his best to address this issue. He signed two JUCO linemen and a late four-star commitment from Georgia lineman Darvis Holmes. Paul Adams and Kevin Pendleton were pretty well-regarded by the previous staff but weren't quite ready to contribute as redshirt freshmen -- maybe they're ready now.

Granted, rebuilding a miserable line is better than rebuilding a great one (the potential drop-off is minimal!), but Mizzou's ceiling is almost completely dependent on the state of the line. No pressure, Coach Elarbee.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	1	IsoPPP+	127.0	8
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	29	Succ. Rt. +	111.3	30
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.1	117	Off. FP+	29.4	79
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.4	8	Redzone S&P+	123.7	9
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.4		ACTUAL	16.0	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	6	14	30	8
RUSHING	28	14	29	6
PASSING	5	15	33	14
Standard Downs		14	27	12
Passing Downs		15	34	11

Q1 Rk	17	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	47	2nd Down Rk	6
Q3 Rk	10	3rd Down Rk	1
Q4 Rk	2

6. Flexibility

Odom employed a 3-4 defense as coordinator at Memphis and bounced back and forth between three and four down linemen and between a third linebacker and a fifth defensive back last year at Missouri. New defensive coordinator Demontie Cross spent the last three seasons learning the ins and outs of Gary Patterson's 4-2-5 at TCU, first as linebackers coach, then as co-coordinator. New cornerbacks coach Greg Brown most recently worked with Todd Grantham's 3-4 at Louisville. Line coach Jackie Shipp was most recently a part of Todd Graham's nickel-ish, 3-4ish system at Arizona State.

Odom doesn't seem to care about a particular system. (That was made even more evident by his offensive coordinator hire.) No, he wants flexibility; he wants attacking options and a scheme that can account for whatever strengths his personnel have. His staff should again have plenty of toys.

Even with this week's dismissal of end Walter Brady and 2014 star Harold Brantley (who missed last season after a serious car injury and appears to have fallen victim to academic issues), Mizzou still returns eight of last year's top nine linemen, two of three starters at linebacker, and five of the top seven in the secondary. There is experience, and there is proven attacking talent in players like end Charles Harris, linebackers Michael Scherer and Donavin Newsom, and corner Aarion Penton. And before a November knee injury, former blue-chipper Terry Beckner Jr. was showing flashes of five-star form.

This unit was a little bit lucky from an injuries perspective -- Beckner's injury was tough and costly but happened late in the year -- but for the most part the Tigers employed a deep rotation anyway, which means depth should be solid regardless.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.7	2.63	2.42	33.1%	63.9%	27.3%	103.7	5.5%	9.1%
Rank	22	29	8	12	53	6	56	52	33

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Charles Harris	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	44.0	6.4%	18.5	7.0	0	1	2	0
Walter Brady	DE					12	30.5	4.5%	12.5	7.0	1	2	1	0
Josh Augusta	DT	6'4, 345	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9079	12	22.0	3.2%	8.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Terry Beckner, Jr.	DT	6'4, 300	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9918	10	20.0	2.9%	8.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Rickey Hatley	DT	6'4, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8413	11	18.0	2.6%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Marcell Frazier	DE	6'5, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8744	12	14.0	2.0%	6.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
A.J. Logan	DT	6'2, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	12	14.0	2.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Nate Howard	DE	6'4, 235	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8603	11	8.5	1.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Moore	DT	6'5, 260	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8550	11	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Spencer Williams	DE	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8241	6	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tre Williams	DE	6'5, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8670

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kentrell Brothers	WLB					12	112.5	16.4%	12.0	2.5	2	3	1	0
Michael Scherer	MLB	6'3, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8753	12	70.0	10.2%	9.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Donavin Newsom	SLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9008	12	52.0	7.6%	9.0	2.5	0	2	2	0
Clarence Green	SLB					11	18.5	2.7%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Joey Burkett	WLB	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8385	11	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Terez Hall	SLB	6'2, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8637	12	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Eric Beisel	MLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8672	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Lee	WLB	6'2, 220	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8962	11	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Franklin Agbasimere	LB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8272
Trey Baldwin	LB	6'2, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8420
Cale Garrett	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8073

7. The bar is high

Shipp inherits a talented unit and quite a bit of pressure. Departed line coach Craig Kuligowski was one of the most respected position coaches in the country, and he pulled off one of his most impressive coaching performances to date in 2015, crafting another stellar line (particularly against the run) despite starting a two-star sophomore and a two-star redshirt freshman at end in replacing departed pros Markus Golden and Shane Ray.

Brady's absence means someone like senior Marcell Frazier or sophomore Nate Howard will need to take a couple of steps forward in their development, but Shipp still inherits a proven, disruptive line. And a seasoned set of linebackers, led by the stalwart Scherer should be able to absorb the loss of dynamic Kentrell Brothers.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Anthony Sherrils	SS	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8591	12	52.5	7.7%	4	0	1	6	1	0
Aarion Penton	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	12	50.0	7.3%	4.5	0	1	8	1	0
Ian Simon	FS					12	38.5	5.6%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Kenya Dennis	CB					12	33.0	4.8%	2.5	1	1	7	0	0
Thomas Wilson	FS	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	12	11.0	1.6%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Logan Cheadle	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8381	11	10.5	1.5%	1	1	0	2	0	0
John Gibson	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	12	9.5	1.4%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Cortland Browning	FS					11	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cam Hilton	FS	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569	12	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Hines	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8556	9	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tavon Ross	SS	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8436	7	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Finis Stribling IV	CB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8029
Ronnell Perkins	SS	6'0, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8566
TJ Warren	CB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8394
Greg Taylor	S	5'10, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8575
DeMarkus Acy	S	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8467

8. Slight question marks in the back

Over the last five seasons, Missouri has improved almost constantly on defense, moving from 31st in Def. S&P+ in 2011 to 20th, 22nd, 15th, and 13th, respectively. The Tigers improved despite losing a ton of pros and defensive coordinator Dave Steckel. It's easy to assume that they will maintain a high level with this staff and this level of experience.

There are, however, at least a couple of questions in the back. Steady safety Ian Simon is gone, meaning someone like junior Thomas Wilson, JUCO transfer Greg Taylor, or sophomores Cam Hilton or Tavon Ross will have to not only assume more responsibility but play at a consistently high level. Plus, the CB position opposite Penton is up for grabs. It was assumed that the fight was between longtime contributor John Gibson and Logan Cheadle, but then redshirt freshman T.J. Warren ended up starting at corner in the spring game. Motivational tactic? Imminent breakout? Red flag? We'll see.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Corey Fatony	5'11, 185	So.	81	42.9	3	28	26	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Corey Fatony	5'11, 185	So.	43	62.8	18	1	41.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew Baggett			15-15	15-16	93.8%	1-4	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
John Gibson	KR	6'0, 190	Sr.	13	14.8	0
Finis Stribling IV	KR	5'11, 175	So.	10	16.4	0
Aarion Penton	PR	5'10, 190	Sr.	15	7.7	1
Cam Hilton	PR	6'0, 180	So.	6	3.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	69
Field Goal Efficiency	57
Punt Return Success Rate	83
Kick Return Success Rate	126
Punt Success Rate	26
Kickoff Success Rate	86

9. Fatony's leg gave out

Perhaps the single saddest thing about Missouri's pathetic offensive showing in 2015 was that it even wore the punter out. Corey Fatony performed tremendously for a true freshman, but he was asked to put an astounding 81 times, despite playing only 12 games and despite a plodding tempo. And down the stretch, there was a clear drop-off. Through eight games he was averaging 44.6 yards per punt; in the last four games: 39.5.

Fatony should be strong again in 2016, and the addition of Alex Ross, an excellent return man at OU, could impact special teams as much as offense. There is a red flag at kicker, though, where the steady Andrew Baggett will likely be replaced by another true freshman, Tucker McCann.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	at West Virginia	33	-7.6	33%
10-Sep	Eastern Michigan	121	23.2	91%
17-Sep	Georgia	15	-7.5	33%
24-Sep	Delaware State	NR	51.9	100%
1-Oct	at LSU	2	-22.8	9%
15-Oct	at Florida	19	-12.9	23%
22-Oct	Middle Tennessee	90	12.9	77%
29-Oct	Kentucky	83	11.0	74%
5-Nov	at South Carolina	63	-1.2	47%
12-Nov	Vanderbilt	69	6.8	65%
19-Nov	at Tennessee	9	-15.3	19%
25-Nov	Arkansas	17	-6.6	35%
Projected wins: 6.1

Five-Year F/+ Rk	21.9% (26)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	34 / 33
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / -2.3
2015 TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	75% (82%, 69%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.4 (0.6)

10. Pull one upset

Because of recent success (East division champions in 2013-14), top-35 recruiting, and strong returning production on both sides of the ball, Missouri is projected to return to the top 50 this season. Obviously that isn't enough to make too much noise in the SEC, but it could be enough to get the Tigers back to the postseason.

The way the schedule sets up, MU will have to find an upset. The Tigers are given a 65 percent chance or better in five games this fall but face three likely losses and four games with win probability between 33 and 47 percent. Odds say Mizzou should just eke out a bowl bid, but it will be close, and the offensive line will likely tip the scales one way or the other.

The last 12 months have been ... unique in Columbia. But while the university and athletic department are still in flux, the football team could be a source of stability by simply locating one more win than last year and, if nothing else, having a forgettable fall off the field.