Vanderbilt's defense would be good enough to win the SEC East ... if it had an offense

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. Time to move

Missouri, South Carolina, and Georgia are breaking in new head coaches. Kentucky has suddenly stagnated three years into Mark Stoops' tenure. Florida might not have a quarterback. Tennessee still has to prove it can close tight games.

I'm not going to say now is Vanderbilt's time to win the SEC East or anything. That's not going to happen. But now would be a really good time for Vanderbilt to turn experience into competence on offense and field a strong team. The division is in flux, and the Commodores, who showed genuine improvement (on one side of the ball) in 2015, would be incredibly well served by another step forward.

Of course, Derek Mason would be well-served by any improvement. The third-year head coach is 7-17, even after fielding a strong defense in 2015. His offense remains a question mark (to put it as politely as possible), and while he showed enough second-year progress to fend off any hot-seat demons, Vandy was just getting used to winning when he arrived, and the wins have mostly stopped since then.

Indeed, Mason engineered improvement last year. I predicted as much ... in the most lukewarm possible manner.

Between youth and the "it almost literally can't get worse" factor, expect improvement. The defense has promise, and the run game might be semi-efficient. But it's hard to give too much refutation to those writing the Commodores off. It's going to take a lot to come back.

Vanderbilt was a house stripped to its foundation. The Commodores were destined to be bad, and they were young enough that they should expect to improve.

Indeed, a defense that had shown promise in 2014 became legitimately strong, and that paved the way to low-scoring wins over MTSU (17-13), Missouri (10-3), and Kentucky (21-17). But the offense only "improved" from 118th to 117th in Off. S&P+ and now must replace last year's leading passer and two three-year starting linemen. The passing game featured occasional efficiency and almost no big plays; the run game featured neither, even with the well-regarded Ralph Webb taking on nearly 25 carries per game. There's no clear weapon to build a good offense around, and the new starting quarterback completed 43 percent of his passes last year.

Division rival Missouri bottomed out offensively last season but has at least fielded a competent attack in recent memory; Vanderbilt's defense might be as good as or better than Mizzou's in 2016, but depending on your definition of "solid," the next solid Vanderbilt offense will be VU's first since either 2013 (30 points per game), 2011 (the only time in the last decade that VU has ranked better than 60th in Off. S&P+), or ... about 1948.

This is a hard job. It always has been. Since the end of World War I, Vandy has won eight games in a season just nine times and has won more than eight just twice. However, those two times came in James Franklin's last two years in Nashville, the two before Mason arrived. That makes it incredibly difficult to set expectations in Nashville.

But whatever expectations are or should be, the spoils are there in 2016 in a vulnerable East if the Commodores can put points on the board. It's hard to trust that they will.

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 83 | Final S&P+ Rk: 83
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
3-Sep	Western Kentucky	15	12-14	L	78%	61%	+0.6	+1.0
12-Sep	Georgia	30	14-31	L	28%	2%	+5.5	+3.5
19-Sep	Austin Peay	N/A	47-7	W	85%	100%	+2.1
26-Sep	at Ole Miss	5	16-27	L	46%	9%	+19.4	+14.0
3-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	82	17-13	W	77%	84%	+4.8	+5.0
17-Oct	at South Carolina	88	10-19	L	22%	7%	-9.0	-6.0
24-Oct	Missouri	75	10-3	W	84%	98%	+3.2	+9.5
31-Oct	at Houston	26	0-34	L	12%	0%	-20.8	-22.5
7-Nov	at Florida	27	7-9	L	32%	7%	+19.1	+19.0
14-Nov	Kentucky	91	21-17	W	43%	39%	-6.6	+1.0
21-Nov	Texas A&M	34	0-25	L	5%	0%	-21.9	-18.0
28-Nov	at Tennessee	18	28-53	L	47%	17%	-7.1	-7.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	18.1	117	20.4	20
Points Per Game	15.2	124	21.0	22

2. Up, down, up, down, down, down

Vandy showed quite a bit of promise over the first half or so of the season. The offense wasn't good, but the defense was fantastic, allowing just 4.6 yards per play to WKU, 4.3 to MTSU, and 3.6 to Missouri. Georgia's offense found a rhythm, but Ole Miss' never really did. There was little to no overall consistency thanks to the offense -- up and down every single week -- but the product wasn't too bad.

Unfortunately, close losses to WKU and South Carolina would eventually finish off any hopes of a return to bowl eligibility because after beating Missouri, VU alternated between one-dimensional and just bad. Houston, Texas A&M, and Tennessee beat the 'Dores by a combined 112-28, and a Florida team dying offensively still pulled off a 9-7 win.

• First 7 games:
  Record: 3-4 | Average percentile performance: 60% (~top 50) | Yards per play: VU 4.9, Opp 4.8 (+0.1)
• Last 5 games:
  Record: 1-4 | Average percentile performance: 28% (~top 95) | Yards per play: Opp 5.6, VU 3.8 (-1.8)

The offense went from bad to awful, and the defense became increasingly mortal. There was probably a correlation there, as from a personnel standpoint, the defense was mostly the same throughout the year.

The offense, however, replaced Johnny McCrary with Kyle Shurmur at QB and tanked miserably. Mason was effusive in his praise of Shurmur after the loss to Tennessee -- a game in which he went 15-for-34 and produced a 119.0 passer rating -- and McCrary saw the writing on the wall and transferred. The Commodores couldn't control the ball as well, and certainly couldn't run as well, without McCrary, and a stressed defense began suffering lapses.

Vandy was clearly a lesser team with Shurmur in charge down the stretch, but Mason and offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig clearly saw something in him. We'll see if their intuition pays off.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	122	IsoPPP+	83.1	115
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.8%	114	Succ. Rt. +	90.7	107
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.9	109	Def. FP+	30.9	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.0	125	Redzone S&P+	82.6	123
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.2		ACTUAL	25	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	117	112	107	115
RUSHING	88	108	108	98
PASSING	112	108	89	113
Standard Downs		109	108	109
Passing Downs		113	100	117

Q1 Rk	112	1st Down Rk	101
Q2 Rk	107	2nd Down Rk	96
Q3 Rk	101	3rd Down Rk	116
Q4 Rk	79

3. A run-first offense that couldn't run

Vanderbilt leaned as hard as it could on the run in 2015 but couldn't actually do it very well. McCrary and slot receiver Darrius Sims were the only runners to produce even a modicum of efficiency running the ball, and they weren't running backs.

Ralph Webb proved himself a durable option, but his 23 carries per game didn't really go anywhere. He would basically run for five yards in two carries, then Vandy would attempt a short throw or another Webb run on third-and-5. This was neither imaginative nor successful.

Every running back on the roster is back, which is fine, I guess. Webb garnered decent praise for his yardage totals, but a lot of guys could have gained 1,152 yards if given 277 carries. He is an efficient weapon as a third-down receiver, but Ludwig could probably stand to vary things a bit on first down.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Johnny McCrary					146	267	1533	6	12	54.7%	19	6.6%	4.9
Kyle Shurmur	6'4, 223	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8974	44	103	503	5	3	42.7%	9	8.0%	4.0
Wade Freebeck	6'5, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8324	2	6	26	0	1	33.3%	0	0.0%	4.3
Shawn Stankavage	6'2, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8406
Deuce Wallace	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8640

4. Stuck in a new QB loop

Five different quarterbacks have started at least one game for Vanderbilt in Mason's two seasons. That is staggering. McCrary, Patton Robinette, Wade Freebeck, and Stephen Rivers all had their turn in 2014, and McCrary and Shurmur split time last fall. It appears the job is Shurmur's moving forward, but I guess that is far from certain. But of the five, Shurmur and Freebeck are the only two still in uniform for Vandy.

McCrary was more productive with both his arm and his feet, but Shurmur likely gained an advantage on him by simply not making mistakes: His interception rate was 2.9 percent (still a smidge higher than you'd like) to McCrary's 4.5 percent.

If Shurmur can simply offer promise and hold onto the job, that will offer a level of stability the offense hasn't seen in a while. That would be a nice place to start. He's got a pedigree; he was a four-star prospect, and his dad is the former head coach of the Cleveland Browns and a five-year NFL offensive coordinator. He has a receiving corps loaded with juniors and seniors. The bar is low for VU quarterbacks, and Shurmur did nothing to raise it last November, but he could surprise, I guess.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ralph Webb	RB	5'10, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	277	1152	5	4.2	4.8	30.7%	2	2
Dallas Rivers	RB	6'1, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8672	60	183	1	3.1	2.4	26.7%	0	0
Johnny McCrary	QB					51	316	2	6.2	4.9	52.9%	5	1
Darrius Sims	SLOT	5'9, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	43	250	1	5.8	6.2	44.2%	2	1
Josh Crawford	RB	5'10, 202	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	18	54	0	3.0	2.1	22.2%	1	1
Kyle Shurmur	QB	6'4, 223	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8974	5	24	0	4.8	4.0	40.0%	2	1
Trent Sherfield	WR	6'1, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8649	4	55	0	13.8	18.0	50.0%	0	0
Khari Blasingame	FB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8173
Jaire George	RB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
Jamauri Wakefield	RB	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8326

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Trent Sherfield	WR	6'1, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8649	89	51	659	57.3%	25.4%	7.4	71.9%	51.7%	1.35
C.J. Duncan (2014)	WR	5'11, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8300	55	28	441	50.9%	16.5%	8.0	58.2%	N/A	N/A
Steven Scheu	TE					51	26	231	51.0%	14.6%	4.5	49.0%	33.3%	1.20
Ralph Webb	RB	5'10, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	42	24	188	57.1%	12.0%	4.5	59.5%	47.6%	0.86
Caleb Scott	WR	6'2, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8422	40	24	339	60.0%	11.4%	8.5	62.5%	50.0%	1.48
Latevius Rayford	WR	6'1, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8418	38	19	151	50.0%	10.9%	4.0	63.2%	39.5%	0.84
Kris Kentera	WR					18	7	92	38.9%	5.1%	5.1	50.0%	33.3%	1.46
Darrius Sims	SLOT	5'9, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	17	10	110	58.8%	4.9%	6.5	47.1%	41.2%	1.36
Dallas Rivers	RB	6'1, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8672	14	7	47	50.0%	4.0%	3.4	35.7%	28.6%	1.31
Ronald Monroe	WR					13	5	17	38.5%	3.7%	1.3	30.8%	0.0%	0.00
DeAndre Woods	TE	6'3, 238	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8786	9	7	129	77.8%	2.6%	14.3	66.7%	77.8%	1.75
Nathan Marcus	TE	6'5, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464	7	4	34	57.1%	2.0%	4.9	42.9%	42.9%	0.92
Sam Dobbs	TE	6'4, 220	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	3	2	30	66.7%	0.9%	10.0	33.3%	33.3%	2.17
Chandler Dorrell	SLOT	5'11, 188	Jr.	NR	NR	3	3	20	100.0%	0.9%	6.7	33.3%	66.7%	1.09
Sean Dowling	TE	6'5, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625
Trey Ellis	WR	5'9, 170	Jr.	NR	NR
Jared Pinkney	TE	6'4, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287
Jackson Winrow	WR	6'1, 182	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8466
Kalija Lipscomb	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8432
Donaven Tennyson	WR	5'10, 164	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8403

5. Potential in the receiving corps

There will still be an emphasis on the running game, and that might or might not be a mistake -- the running backs are certainly experienced, and with Andrew Jelks returning from injury, the line features six players with starting experience. [Update: Jelks suffered a season-ending injury in camp for the second straight season.] But experience alone doesn't make you successful; talent and scheme take you there, and we don't know that VU has much of either.

The Commodores do have an intriguing receiving corps, though. Trent Sherfield came out of nowhere to lead Vanderbilt in receiving last year, and while that was due mostly to a ridiculous performance against Austin Peay -- 16 catches, 240 yards (which means he had just 35 catches for 419 yards in the other 11 games) -- he still provided decent efficiency. Meanwhile, C.J. Duncan, who missed 2015 with injury, averaged a robust 15.8 yards per catch in 2014. Webb is a lovely third-down weapon, and Caleb Scott averaged 8.5 yards per target in limited opportunities.

If Shurmur breaks through and begins to live up to his recruiting ranking and bloodlines this fall, he'll have the receivers to do some damage. But that's a pretty significant if, and we don't know how many passing opportunities Shurmur will get before second-and-8 or third-and-6. The run-first approach eats clock for the defense, but actually moving the ball would help the defense, too.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.5	2.64	2.94	34.1%	60.4%	22.5%	83.1	3.3%	10.4%
Rank	99	106	97	111	105	105	93	30	109

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Spencer Pulley	C					12	41
Jake Bernstein	LG					12	34
Will Holden	RT	6'7, 312	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8465	12	23
Andrew Jelks	LT	6'6, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8849	0	21
Barrett Gouger	RG	6'4, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8586	11	11
Blake Fromang	RT					6	6
Bailey Granier	LT	6'6, 320	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8445	4	4
Justin Skule	RT	6'6, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457	2	2
Bruno Reagan	LG	6'3, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8275	1	1
Delando Crooks	LG	6'5, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8661	0	0
Cole Hardin	C	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585	0	0
Egidio DellaRipa	LG	6'4, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	0	0
Ean Pfeifer	C	6'4, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8392
Jared Southers	RG	6'4, 308	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8290
Sean Auwae-McMoore	OL	6'4, 308	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8675
Devin Cochran	OL	6'7, 305	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.25	62	IsoPPP+	115.1	26
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.1%	22	Succ. Rt. +	109.6	36
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.8	94	Off. FP+	29.8	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	3.3	6	Redzone S&P+	123.7	11
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.2		ACTUAL	17.0	-6.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	28	26	36	26
RUSHING	33	43	49	46
PASSING	41	19	20	22
Standard Downs		22	30	22
Passing Downs		35	49	34

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	20	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	61	3rd Down Rk	13
Q4 Rk	38

6. A bend-don't-break with attitude

Vanderbilt lost a key interior piece in linebacker Nigel Bowden early in the season, and it didn't even matter. The Commodores, loaded mostly with sophomores and juniors, improved from 76th to 20th in Def. S&P+ in 2015. They combined bend-don't-break peripherals and tremendous redzone defense with sticky, aggressive coverage on the perimeter. The result was an impressive mish-mash of big-play prevention and high havoc rates,, at least until the offense went from bad to hopeless.

The thing about sophomores and juniors is that most of them return the next year. Vandy returns five of its top six linemen, seven of nine linebackers, and six of eight defensive backs. Aside from Bowden, they were relatively lucky in terms of injuries (almost no regular missed more than a game or two), but they played a pretty big rotation regardless.

The key pieces are probably linebacker Zach Cunningham, safety/nickel Oren Burks, and corner Torren McGaster. Cunningham is both your requisite ILB tackling machine and a play-maker. He led the team in both tackles and sacks, which is rare (even if leading a team with 4.5 sacks says something iffy about your pass rush). Burks, meanwhile, offers extreme flexibility in where and how Vanderbilt chooses to attack, and McGaster is one of the SEC's best cornerbacks. The line could stand to make a few more plays, but with this trio on the field, VU has almost no choice but to play pretty well defensively.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.5	2.45	2.72	37.2%	35.0%	25.7%	100.8	5.4%	7.3%
Rank	23	12	22	53	1	7	63	54	66

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Caleb Azubike	DE					9	21.0	3.3%	6.0	3.0	0	0	2	0
Jay Woods	DT	6'3, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8996	12	18.0	2.8%	2.0	1.0	0	1	2	0
Adam Butler	DT	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8685	12	15.0	2.3%	7.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Wynn	DE	6'4, 255	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	12	14.5	2.3%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Torey Agee	DT	6'4, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8339	12	14.5	2.3%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Nifae Lealao	NT	6'5, 312	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9501	12	13.5	2.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dare Odeyingbo	DE	6'2, 262	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544
Riley Tindol	DE	6'5, 267	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844
Darion DeBrossard	NT	6'4, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8376
Josiah Sa'o	DL	6'2, 288	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8299
Drew Birchmeier	DL	6'4, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8249
Cameron Tidd	DL	6'3, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8137

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Cunningham	ILB	6'4, 230	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9015	12	86.0	13.4%	16.5	4.5	0	3	4	0
Nigel Bowden (2014)	ILB	6'1, 240	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8755	11	57.5	8.3%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Darreon Herring	ILB					12	49.0	7.7%	3.5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	OLB					12	37.5	5.9%	9.5	3.5	0	3	2	0
Landon Stokes	OLB	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8524	12	18.0	2.8%	3.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Nehemiah Mitchell	OLB	6'4, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8565	12	16.5	2.6%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Khari Blasingame	ILB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8173	11	10.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ja'karri Thomas	ILB	6'1, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8302	10	10.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Griffin	ILB	6'0, 224	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8538	11	7.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Smith	OLB	6'4, 236	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9343	12	4.0	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Charles Wright	OLB	6'3, 237	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	11	2.0	0.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jay Hockaday	ILB	6'4, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093
Caleb Peart	OLB	6'1, 234	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625

7. Depth and one star

What Vandy's line lacked in play-making, it made up for in blocker occupation. Only one lineman finished with more than six tackles for loss, but Vanderbilt had the best short-yardage defense in the country and ranked in the top 10 in stuff rate. Cunningham and since-departed Stephen Weatherly combined for 18 non-sack tackles for loss, and tackle Adam Butler added another four.

This line does its job, in other words. It keeps blockers off of Cunningham, and Cunningham's unique ability to invade the line of scrimmage from an inside position means the OLBs don't have to take too many risks. This all works because of Cunningham, and not only is he himself experienced, the front seven around him is both deep and experienced. There's really no reason to assume last year's stellar numbers change much. The pass rush wasn't amazing and probably won't be again, but that only matters if the secondary starts suffering injuries.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Oren Burks	FS	6'3, 222	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	12	47.0	7.3%	2	0	3	6	1	0
Torren McGaster	CB	6'0, 198	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	12	46.0	7.2%	4.5	0	0	13	0	0
Tre Herndon	CB	6'1, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8386	12	41.0	6.4%	1	1	0	4	0	0
Andrew Williamson	SS					10	34.5	5.4%	1	1	0	4	1	0
Arnold Tarpley	NB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8306	12	30.0	4.7%	5	2	0	3	0	0
Ryan White	SS	5'9, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8918	12	22.0	3.4%	3	0	1	1	1	0
Jahmel McIntosh	FS					12	13.0	2.0%	0.5	0	2	1	0	0
Taurean Ferguson	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8497	11	12.0	1.9%	0.5	0	0	4	0	0
Tre Bell	CB					11	10.5	1.6%	1	0	0	0	0	0
LaDarius Wiley	CB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8320	12	6.5	1.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel Smith	NB	6'2, 219	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8922	11	5.5	0.9%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Donovan Sheffield	NB	5'11, 190	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8982	6	4.5	0.7%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Jalen Banks	SS	5'11, 204	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	6	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Lewis	CB	6'0, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535
Joejuan Williams	CB	6'3, 203	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9163
Zaire Jones	DB	5'11, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8671
Austin Quillen	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8281
Frank Coppet	DB	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8334

8. Active in the back

Returning Vandy defensive backs combined for 19 tackles for loss, four interceptions, and 34 breakups last year, and while a lot of that came from McGaster, Burks, and nickel back Arnold Tarpley, the love was spready around among nine different players.

This is one of the best secondaries in the SEC. The front seven can play things conservatively in pass-rush situations because the secondary doesn't need too much help.

Vandy lost its edge late in the season against Texas A&M and Tennessee, but in the first six games of SEC play, the Commodores allowed just a 50.5 percent completion rate and a 99.6 passer rating, and that includes a game against the dynamic Ole Miss passing attack.

With four of the top five corners and six of the top eight safeties back, it's hard to think any of this will change. The offense could be just as staid and frustrating as it was last year, and the defense could be just as good or, conceivably, quite a bit better.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tommy Openshaw	6'2, 195	Jr.	79	40.9	3	30	24	68.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Hayden Lekacz	6'0, 193	Jr.	45	58.0	10	2	22.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tommy Openshaw	6'2, 195	Jr.	14-14	5-8	62.5%	7-11	63.6%
Hayden Lekacz	6'0, 193	Jr.	4-4	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Darrius Sims	KR	5'9, 191	Sr.	25	19.9	0
Dallas Rivers	KR	6'1, 225	Jr.	11	20.7	0
Ryan White	PR	5'9, 190	Jr.	20	7.5	0
Torren McGaster	PR	6'0, 198	Sr.	4	7.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	110
Field Goal Efficiency	95
Punt Return Success Rate	101
Kick Return Success Rate	104
Punt Success Rate	53
Kickoff Success Rate	107

9. Openshaw is a weapon (for better and worse)

Vandy's special teams unit wasn't much help in 2015: Tommy Openshaw was scattershot on shorter field goals, only 22 percent of Hayden Lekacz's kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, and neither punt nor kick returns had much to offer in the way of consistency. That all of these guys return isn't automatically a good thing.

But Openshaw was at least pretty good at booting high punts. Granted, if an opposing return man got a return opportunity, bad things were probably about to happen (Vandy allowed 15.1 yards per return, fifth-worst in FBS), but that was rare. And if you're going to be efficient in one single category with this offense, punting's a pretty good choice.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
1-Sep	South Carolina	63	2.5	56%
10-Sep	Middle Tennessee	90	9.5	71%
17-Sep	at Georgia Tech	54	-6.1	36%
24-Sep	at Western Kentucky	45	-7.3	34%
1-Oct	Florida	19	-9.2	30%
8-Oct	at Kentucky	83	0.7	52%
15-Oct	at Georgia	15	-17.9	15%
22-Oct	Tennessee State	NR	35.1	98%
5-Nov	at Auburn	24	-14.2	21%
12-Nov	at Missouri	47	-6.8	35%
19-Nov	Ole Miss	7	-13.6	22%
26-Nov	Tennessee	9	-11.7	25%
Projected wins: 4.9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-3.6% (69)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	51 / 40
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / -1.0
2015 TO Luck/Game	-2.9
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	71% (59%, 83%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	4.2 (-0.2)

10. This probably isn't going to go much differently

Vanderbilt is likely going to boast a conservative, frustrating offense and a dynamic, dominant defense. Again. The dynamics don't seem to have changed much here, and the only hope for a big breakthrough is if Shurmur explodes in his sophomore year. I don't see it happening.

The Commodores are projected 69th in S&P+, better than only Kentucky in the SEC. With that projection, they are looking at two likely wins, four likely losses, two tossups (South Carolina, at Kentucky), and four longshots.

If Vandy follows the S&P+ projection, in other words, any sense of opportunity that 2016 presents will have fallen by the wayside, and we'll be left wondering where the Mason administration is headed. He kept the vultures away with 2015 improvement, and maybe he'll generate more this fall. But it's still pretty hard to see this working out well for Mason.