Gus Malzahn has gone from Nick Saban's nemesis to the hot seat. Will Auburn rebound?

Check out the advanced-stats glossary here. Below, a unique review of last year's team, a unit-by-unit breakdown of this year's roster, the full 2016 schedule with win projections for each game, and more.

1. The butt snap that changed it all

It feels like Gus Malzahn has been Auburn's head coach for about eight years, doesn't it?

In his tenure, he pulled off a massive turnaround, came within a play of winning the Tigers' second national title of the 2010s (he was Auburn's OC during the first), and got AU to No. 2 in the rankings the following season.

He has also churned through defensive coordinators and watched his program slide back into the unranked.

It's all happened in three years.

Auburn rose from 3-9 before Malzahn came back, to 12-2 in his first year, to 7-6 in his third. Malzahn has gone from The Future of College Football to firmly on the hot seat. At a school like Auburn, you're always only about two steps from getting fired, but the change in fortune has been as fascinating as it has been swift. The defense has remained roughly the same, but the offense plummeted in 2015, suffering from quarterback mistakes and a sudden lack of big plays.

Considering the constantly ridiculous schedule strength (top-10 per S&P+ for three straight years) the fact that Malzahn has gone 27-13 is pretty good. The Tigers have been in the S&P+ top 10 twice -- also good!

But Auburn completely lost its close-game mojo.

Stats are designed, in part, to strip away the poetry, the use of terms like "mojo." They tell you Auburn was destined for some serious regression to the mean after the blessed run of 2013. But it's incredible how much everything about this program's trajectory changed with, basically, a single play.

On November 8, 2014, a week after pulling off a staggering escape at Ole Miss (the game in which the Rebels' Laquon Treadwell injured his leg and fumbled just shy of the go-ahead touchdown), Auburn hosted Texas A&M, another suddenly flagging program. The Tigers were 24-point favorites, and even though they trailed 35-17 at halftime, it felt like only a matter of time until the inevitable comeback. They had won nine of 10 one-possession games under Malzahn. They would find a way.

Indeed, the score was just 41-38 in the final minute, and Auburn was driving. But a miscommunication between quarterback Nick Marshall and center Reese Dismukes resulted in an errant snap, and A&M recovered it to seal the upset.

Since that moment, they have lost six of nine one-possession games and are 8-10 overall. And two of their three close wins averted upsets; they played not to lose against Kentucky last year and just barely succeeded, and they needed overtime to take down FCS' Jacksonville State.

Mojo ... karma ... regression to the mean ... whatever your term, Auburn has suffered. Malzahn lost confidence in his offense in 2015, and despite a wealth of blue-chippers, the offense has only once topped 31st in Def. S&P+ in three seasons.

And now he enters 2016 with question marks at quarterback and a sudden lack of running backs. Can he right the ship? And what does "righting the ship" look like when facing a schedule that not only features eight projected top-25 teams but also, incredibly, games against each of the projected top three (Clemson on September 3, LSU on September 24, Alabama on November 26)?

2015 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 33 | Final S&P+ Rk: 35
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Win Expectancy	vs. S&P+	Performance vs. Vegas
5-Sep	vs. Louisville	39	31-24	W	85%	83%	+1.2	-4.0
12-Sep	Jacksonville State	N/A	27-20	W	69%	84%	-32.3
19-Sep	at LSU	10	21-45	L	14%	0%	-18.3	-17.0
26-Sep	Mississippi State	16	9-17	L	44%	9%	-7.0	-9.5
3-Oct	San Jose State	89	35-21	W	91%	98%	+1.3	-6.0
15-Oct	at Kentucky	91	30-27	W	53%	42%	+2.4	+1.0
24-Oct	at Arkansas	11	46-54	L	52%	14%	+6.3	-2.0
31-Oct	Ole Miss	5	19-27	L	63%	17%	+6.8	-0.5
7-Nov	at Texas A&M	34	26-10	W	94%	98%	+30.7	+23.5
14-Nov	Georgia	30	13-20	L	59%	22%	-4.8	-9.0
21-Nov	Idaho	114	56-34	W	84%	96%	+3.2	-12.0
28-Nov	Alabama	1	13-29	L	42%	2%	+1.3	-2.0
30-Dec	vs. Memphis	41	31-10	W	98%	100%	+24.5	+18.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	32.6	44	22.9	31
Points Per Game	27.5	75	26.0	54

2. A litmus test

In 2013, Auburn beat the teams that finished Nos. 2, 14, 22, 23, 28, and 33 in F/+. The Tigers lost only to No. 1 and, early in the season, No. 17.

In 2014, they were still pretty unpredictable, beating Nos. 5, 9, 22, and 26 and losing to Nos. 2, 4, 13, and 25.

In 2015, the unpredictability was gone, and Auburn provided a pretty clear test for its opponents. If you beat AU, you were top-30 caliber. If you didn't, you weren't.

• Auburn vs. Top 30:
  Record: 0-6 | Average percentile performance: 46% (~top 70) | Yards per play: Opp 5.8, AU 4.9 (-0.9) | Average score: Opp 32, AU 20
• Auburn vs. everyone else:
  Record: 7-0 | Average percentile performance: 82% (~top 25) | Yards per play: AU 5.9, Opp 5.0 (+0.9) | Average score: AU 34, Opp 21

Against good teams, Auburn's defense was average, and its offense was outmanned. Against decent and bad teams, the defense performed well, and the offense was at least above average. And after two of the wildest seasons in recent football history, Auburn's 2015 was ... predictable. Never thought I'd see the day.

The biggest cause was the offense. it just didn't have the juice. After ranking second in Off. S&P+ in 2013 and fourth in 2014, the Tigers fell to 44th. They were still mostly efficient, but their mistakes were costly, and their big-play totals wilted to nothing.

In 2013, they pulled off 45 gains of 30-plus yards, second in the country; in 2015, they had just 22 (93rd). In 2014, they had 228 gains of 10-plus yards (18th); in 2015, they had 164 (85th). You can live off of five-yard gains if you avoid mistakes.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	123	IsoPPP+	99.4	69
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.3%	36	Succ. Rt. +	113.6	22
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	83	Def. FP+	29.4	58
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.7	45	Redzone S&P+	108.0	43
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.6		ACTUAL	17	-3.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	94	48	22	69
RUSHING	35	38	9	71
PASSING	111	42	63	40
Standard Downs		73	30	100
Passing Downs		23	26	23

Q1 Rk	19	1st Down Rk	44
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	84
Q3 Rk	26	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	69

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jeremy Johnson	6'5, 234	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9274	95	157	1054	10	7	60.5%	9	5.4%	5.9
Sean White	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9342	83	143	1167	1	4	58.0%	9	5.9%	7.1
John Franklin III	6'1, 186	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8885
Woody Barrett	6'2, 238	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9147

3. Got a QB?

Malzahn set the bar high when he took a converted defensive back, put him behind center, and nearly won the national title. Marshall rushed for 1,193 yards in 2013 (not including sacks), then threw for more than 2,500 in 2014. In his two years as Auburn starter, he completed 60 percent of his passes with a 2.4 percent interception rate, a 5.8 percent sack rate, and a 7.1 yards per (non-sack) carry average.

As opponents began to adjust for the threat of his legs, Marshall got a little better with his arm. He averaged 8 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) as a senior, and Auburn ranked first in Passing S&P+.

It was easy to assume Malzahn would find what he needed in Jeremy Johnson. The 6'5 specimen was tremendous in a backup role in 2014 (10.3 yards per pass attempt, 5.4 yards per non-sack rush) and even saw a little bit of Heisman hype heading into last fall. That's how much faith we had in Malzahn.

But Johnson struggled with interceptions early in 2015, throwing three against Louisville and two against Jacksonville State. His pick rate was 8 percent through three games, about four times higher than it should be, and he was benched in favor of redshirt freshman Sean White. When he got another shot, he was scarred -- he only threw one interception in his final 85 passes, but if you take out his performance against hapless Idaho, he averaged only 10.7 yards per completion in that span.

White wasn't much of a runner, and when he was in the game, it seemed like Auburn was down one weapon. He's relatively mobile, but while Marshall's ratio of pass attempts to rush attempts in 2013-14 was 1.5, and Johnson's was 4.4 in 2015, White's was 7.2. With White, Auburn's zone read threat was minimal.

Naturally, Auburn fans have cast their hopes on a newcomer. John Franklin III was lost in the shuffle at Florida State and split time on the first string at East Mississippi Community College, but he's fast. Ergo, he's the new savior.

We'll see. Johnson still has plenty of upside if another year of practice irons out the wrinkles between too many interceptions and too little risk. White hinted at efficiency in completing 64 percent of his passes in his first four games. (Last three games: 46 percent.)

Regardless, we found in 2015 that not even Malzahn can thrive with anybody at QB.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Peyton Barber	RB					237	1016	13	4.3	3.1	34.2%	3	0
Jovon Robinson	RB					117	639	3	5.5	4.1	45.3%	1	0
Kerryon Johnson	RB	6'0, 211	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9807	52	208	3	4.0	2.3	40.4%	0	0
Roc Thomas	RB					43	261	1	6.1	7.4	39.5%	1	1
Jeremy Johnson	QB	6'5, 234	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9274	38	208	6	5.5	7.0	42.1%	2	1
Ricardo Louis	WR					29	158	1	5.4	3.2	51.7%	3	1
Sean White	QB	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9342	21	116	0	5.5	5.1	42.9%	4	1
Jason Smith	WR	6'1, 188	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9084	6	37	1	6.2	7.0	50.0%	0	0
Stanton Truitt	WR	5'9, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8899	6	28	0	4.7	4.4	66.7%	0	0
Lawyer Tillman	RB					5	24	0	4.8	0.9	80.0%	0	0
Kamryn Pettway	RB	6'0, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8774
Kam Martin	RB	5'10, 177	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9040
Stephen Davis Jr.	RB	6'3, 206	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8802
Malik Miller	RB	5'11, 229	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8752

4. Got running backs?

Whoever wins the QB job should have a solid line in front of him. Auburn's line thrived in the most necessary categories in 2015 -- fifth in power success rate, ninth in stuff rate, 24th in passing downs sack rate -- and returns three starters, including all-SEC guard Braden Smith and two-year starting guard Alex Kozan. There appears to be nice balance between experience (seven juniors and seniors) and high-upside youngsters.

There do not appear to be many options at running back. Former blue-chippers Roc Thomas (transfer) and Jovon Robinson (recently booted) are gone, leaving sophomore Kerryon Johnson (yet another former blue-chipper), converted fullback Kamryn Pettway, and a trio of true freshmen to fill out the depth chart. Four backs split 35 carries per game, and while Johnson appears to be built from durable stock, he probably won't fill more than 20-25 of those even in the most favorable scenario. That means freshmen will absolutely have to contribute.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	Yds/ Target	%SD	Success Rate	IsoPPP
Ricardo Louis	WR					83	46	716	55.4%	28.9%	8.6	49.4%	43.4%	1.82
Marcus Davis	WR	5'9, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8302	37	30	182	81.1%	12.9%	4.9	67.6%	35.1%	1.27
Melvin Ray	WR					35	20	279	57.1%	12.2%	8.0	31.4%	45.7%	1.54
Tony Stevens	WR	6'4, 212	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9352	25	14	177	56.0%	8.7%	7.1	36.0%	44.0%	1.57
D'haquille Williams	WR					22	12	147	54.5%	7.7%	6.7	27.3%	50.0%	1.16
Jason Smith	SLOT	6'1, 188	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9084	21	13	203	61.9%	7.3%	9.7	28.6%	47.6%	2.02
Kerryon Johnson	RB	6'0, 211	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9807	21	14	159	66.7%	7.3%	7.6	61.9%	38.1%	1.86
Peyton Barber	RB					16	11	112	68.8%	5.6%	7.0	43.8%	43.8%	1.42
Roc Thomas	RB					15	11	200	73.3%	5.2%	13.3	40.0%	53.3%	2.32
Chandler Cox	HB	6'1, 236	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8913	5	3	25	60.0%	1.7%	5.0	80.0%	40.0%	0.94
Stanton Truitt	SLOT	5'9, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8899	3	1	13	33.3%	1.0%	4.3	0.0%	33.3%	0.94
Ryan Davis	SLOT	5'9, 172	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9192
Jalen Harris	HB	6'4, 259	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615
Darius Slayton	WR	6'2, 191	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9347
Nate Craig-Myers	WR	6'2, 204	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9761
Kyle Davis	WR	6'2, 219	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9632
Eli Stove	SLOT	6'0, 177	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9413
Landon Rice	TE	6'5, 253	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9134
Marquis McClain	WR	6'2, 208	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8772

5. Almost no proven big-play guys

Johnson was reasonably efficient for a freshman last fall, but he offered almost nothing from a big-play perspective. That doesn't mean he can't, but of last year's foursome, only Thomas provided even the slightest flash of explosiveness. The Auburn run game was limited to four-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust in 2015.

That put pressure on the passing game to get vertical. That's a problem when you're oscillating between a pick-prone junior and a redshirt freshman at QB, but thanks mostly to Ricardo Louis, the receiving corps occasionally delivered.

Louis is gone. The top two returning wideouts -- seniors Marcus Davis and Tony Stevens -- combined to gain just 359 yards in 44 receptions last year.

So where do the big plays come from? Jason Smith showed promise in averaging 15.6 yards per catch last year, but that came mostly from a 77-yard catch and run against Alabama. He also had a 46-yarder against Arkansas, which means his other 11 catches gained just 80 yards. But he at least has potential.

So do four-star youngsters like sophomore slot receivers Stanton Truitt and Ryan Davis; redshirt freshman Darius Slayton; true freshmen Nate Craig-Myers, Kyle Davis, and Eli Stove; and freshman running backs Kam Martin, Malik Miller, and Stephen Davis Jr.

Auburn severely lacked in firepower last fall. There's no guarantee that will change.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.5	3.12	3.17	40.6%	78.7%	15.4%	126.2	4.3%	5.3%
Rank	20	28	72	43	5	9	37	52	24

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	2015 Starts	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Braden Smith	RG	6'6, 300	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9678	13	13	2015 2nd All-SEC
Avery Young	RT					12	37
Alex Kozan	LG	6'4, 310	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8861	13	27
Shon Coleman	LT					12	25
Austin Golson	LT	6'5, 314	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9553	12	12
Devonte Danzey	LG					2	10
Robert Leff	RT	6'6, 299	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8388	1	1
Will Adams	RG					0	0
Xavier Dampeer	C	6'2, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8113	0	0
Darius James	RT	6'4, 320	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9834	0	0
Deon Mix	LG	6'4, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8718	0	0
Prince Tega Wanogho	LT	6'8, 282	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9481
Tyler Carr	OL	6'5, 318	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9088
Marquel Harrell	LG	6'3, 318	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9078
Mike Horton	RG	6'4, 331	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8560
Prince Michael Sammons	LT	6'7, 289	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9163

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.11	7	IsoPPP+	115.1	25
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.6%	97	Succ. Rt. +	106.6	44
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.1	43	Off. FP+	31.8	27
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity	4.0	33	Redzone S&P+	114.3	22
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.3		ACTUAL	19.0	-4.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	71	33	44	25
RUSHING	80	49	43	56
PASSING	63	26	49	17
Standard Downs		30	43	25
Passing Downs		29	28	29

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	45
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	27
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	28
Q4 Rk	17

6. A Kevin Steele defense

In his last two years as a coordinator, Steele's units have crumpled. In 2011 at Clemson, his Tiger defense plummeted from sixth in Def. S&P+ to 65th; in 2015 at LSU, the Tigers fell from ninth to 27th.

This ignores mountains of context, obviously. Still, it's hard to be inspired by Malzahn's latest coordinator change. He replaced Ellis Johnson with former Florida head coach Will Muschamp last fall, then took Steele from LSU when Muschamp took the South Carolina head coaching job. (LSU didn't appear to put up a ton of fight.)

Steele's only LSU defense struggled a bit up front. The Tigers ranked 83rd in power success rate, 89th in stuff rate, and 40th in passing downs sack rate; they swarmed to the ball reasonably well (17th in Rushing Success Rate+) but suffered quite a few glitches (51st in Rushing IsoPPP+). They boasted a ferocious secondary (seventh in Passing S&P+), but opponents were comfortable enough running the ball that LSU couldn't take total advantage of its strengths.

At Auburn, he inherits a unit with similar strengths and weaknesses. AU ranked 26th in Passing S&P+ but 49th in Rushing S&P+, and the Tigers' biggest issue was a total lack of disruptiveness up front (99th in stuff rate, 123rd in Adj. Sack Rate). Former blue-chip end Carl Lawson is supposedly finally healthy, and goodness knows there are plenty of other former stud recruits up front.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.6	3.14	3.62	42.3%	65.6%	16.9%	59.1	2.9%	5.4%
Rank	58	99	107	106	62	99	123	112	99

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cassanova McKinzy	BUCK					13	55.5	7.7%	10.0	5.0	0	1	1	0
Montravius Adams	NT	6'4, 309	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9945	13	30.0	4.1%	3.0	2.5	0	1	2	0
Dontavius Russell	DT	6'3, 308	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9311	13	28.0	3.9%	4.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Devaroe Lawrence	DT	6'2, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8366	13	22.0	3.0%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
DaVonte Lambert	DE					12	16.0	2.2%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Carl Lawson	BUCK	6'2, 253	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9897	7	11.0	1.5%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jeff Holland	BUCK	6'2, 250	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9443	13	10.0	1.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Gimel President	DE					10	10.0	1.4%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Swain	NT	6'5, 314	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650	13	5.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Raashed Kennion	BUCK	6'6, 237		3 stars (5.5)	0.8154	8	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Byron Cowart	DE	6'3, 276	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9987	13	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Williams	DT	6'4, 289	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9076	13	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Paul James III	DE	6'4, 271	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8954
Derrick Brown	DT	6'5, 330	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9963
Marlon Davidson	DE	6'3, 273	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9807
Antwuan Jackson Jr.	NT	6'2, 303	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9736
Nick Coe	DE	6'6, 255	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9034

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.J. Neal (Illinois)	MLB	6'0, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8514	12	76.0	11.2%	14.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Kris Frost	MLB					13	66.0	9.1%	3.0	0.0	2	2	1	0
Tre' Williams	SLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9856	12	41.0	5.7%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Garrett	WLB					12	37.5	5.2%	2.5	1.0	2	0	1	1
JaViere Mitchell	LB					13	9.0	1.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Deshaun Davis	WLB	5'11, 239	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8707	12	3.0	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Toney	SLB	6'1, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8747	1	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darrell Williams	WLB	6'2, 231	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9225
Montavious Atkinson	LB	6'1, 211	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9010
Richard McBryde	LB	6'1, 223	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9184
Tre' Threat	WLB	6'1, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8777

7. Wanted: Havoc

Lawson managed 7.5 tackles for loss and four sacks as a backup in 2013, then missed 2014 with an ACL tear. He managed just three TFLs in seven games last year but missed half the year with a hip injury.

Lawson's potential is obvious, and he's apparently giving his offensive linemen fits right now. A 2016 breakout isn't optional for him. If Auburn is going to improve, it needs far more disruption up front, and he's by far the Tigers' most important player.

The tackle position appears well-stocked with last year's top five returning (including Montravius Adams and Dontavius Russell) and getting joined by the latest five-star freshman, Derrick Brown. But ends produced only 20 tackles for loss last year (for a frame of reference, seven FBS players managed that by themselves), and if Lawson doesn't dominate, pressure will go to youngsters like sophomores Jeff Holland and Byron Cowart and freshman Marlon Davidson.

If the line delivers, the linebacking corps should be fine despite losing three of last year's top four. Tre' Williams is solid, and Illinois transfer T.J. Neal combines the "tackling machine" instincts of departed Kris Frost with a strong level of play-making. Assuming the tackle position is a strength, Neal should find space to make a lot of plays.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Johnathan Ford	NB	6'0, 204	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	13	93.0	12.8%	3	1	2	2	2	0
Blake Countess	S					13	57.5	7.9%	2.5	0	2	11	0	0
Jonathan Jones	CB					13	57.0	7.9%	1.5	0	1	13	1	0
Carlton Davis	CB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8904	13	47.0	6.5%	1.5	0.5	3	8	1	0
Joshua Holsey (2014)	S	5'11, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9342	12	38.5	5.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Tray Matthews	S	6'1, 207	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9632	10	36.0	5.0%	1.5	0	2	2	1	0
Marshall Taylor (Miami-OH)	CB	6'3, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	11	34.5	4.9%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Nick Ruffin	S	6'0, 203	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9432	10	21.0	2.9%	0.5	0	0	4	0	0
Stephen Roberts	S	5'11, 183	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9415	13	21.0	2.9%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Tim Irvin	NB					10	13.0	1.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Jeremiah Dinson	DB	6'0, 177	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8376	9	12.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Sherwood	CB	5'9, 175	Jr.	NR	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
T.J. Davis	S	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8789
Markell Boston	S	6'0, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8320
Javaris Davis	CB	5'10, 182	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8988
Jamel Dean	CB	6'2, 209	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8906
John Broussard Jr.	CB	5'11, 168	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9035
Marlon Character Jr.	S	6'0, 181	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8883
Daniel Thomas	DB	5'11, 192	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8233

8. Plenty of options in the back

There are two ways to look at Auburn's secondary. The pessimist's view notes that the Tigers have to replace their two best playmakers, corner Jonathan Jones and safety Blake Countess. The secondary had 10.5 tackles for loss and 59 passes defensed in 2015, and Jones and Countess combined for four and 24, respectively, nearly half of both totals.

The optimist's view: Countess and Jones are almost the only missing pieces, and Auburn now gets Josh Holsey (2014 starter) back from injury and adds Miami (Ohio) transfer Marshall Taylor for depth. Holsey should be a steadying presence in the back -- which is important, as big-pass prevention was Auburn's greatest strength last year -- and in nickel Johnathan Ford, corner Carlton Davis, and safeties Tray Matthews, Nick Ruffin, and Stephen Roberts, Auburn boasts a few other solid pieces.

The Tigers are much deeper at safety than cornerback, but it does appear they're pretty sturdy in the back. If the pass rush goes from horrible to at least mediocre, the pass defense as a whole should crack the top 20 in Passing S&P+.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kevin Phillips	6'0, 185	Sr.	55	41.0	5	24	16	72.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Daniel Carlson	6'4, 218	Jr.	69	64.0	49	3	71.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Daniel Carlson	6'4, 218	Jr.	40-40	15-17	88.2%	8-10	80.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2016 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Johnathan Ford	KR	6'0, 204	Sr.	15	28.7	0
Kerryon Johnson	KR	6'0, 211	So.	14	27.6	0
Marcus Davis	PR	5'9, 180	Sr.	15	11.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams S&P+	14
Field Goal Efficiency	13
Punt Return Success Rate	12
Kick Return Success Rate	2
Punt Success Rate	99
Kickoff Success Rate	29

9. Special teams are a weapon

Auburn should absolutely have special teams in its favor again. Daniel Carlson is tremendous in both place-kicking and kickoffs, the return team is awesome, and in theory, if the offense bounces back a bit, that will limit the effect of the Tigers' least efficient area (punting). AU ranked 14th in Special Teams S&P+ last year and returns everybody. Probably not a bad thing.

2016 Schedule & Projection Factors

2016 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk	Proj. Margin	Win Probability
3-Sep	Clemson	3	-8.2	32%
10-Sep	Arkansas State	89	19.6	87%
17-Sep	Texas A&M	25	3.5	58%
24-Sep	LSU	2	-8.4	31%
1-Oct	UL-Monroe	125	32.4	97%
8-Oct	at Mississippi State	21	-4.6	40%
22-Oct	Arkansas	17	0.8	52%
29-Oct	at Ole Miss	7	-9.9	28%
5-Nov	Vanderbilt	69	14.2	79%
12-Nov	at Georgia	15	-7.1	34%
19-Nov	Alabama A&M	NR	59.3	100%
26-Nov	at Alabama	1	-17.8	15%
Projected wins: 6.5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	19.8% (30)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	4 / 5
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 2.7
2015 TO Luck/Game	-0.3
Returning Production (Off. / Def.)	62% (64%, 61%)
2015 Second-order wins (difference)	6.7 (0.3)

10. This could go in so many different directions

The Tigers have a 79 percent win probability or higher in five games and are below 28 percent in just one (at Alabama).

That leaves four games between 28 and 34 percent and three between 40 and 58. If the Tigers are indeed the 24th-best team in the country, they will labor to find six wins.

But if the offense and defense both bounce back a bit, that could flip some of those 30s and 40s in AU's favor. (And if Auburn again goes 0-fer against top-30 teams, then the team might be home for the holidays.)

Only one game is probably unwinnable, but up to nine or so are losable. That could make for another wild ride, and it could create about three or four plot twists in the "Malzahn's Hot Seat" soap opera.