All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 23-37 (38 percent)
How bad had I been this year? A losing Week 3 actually raised my season winning percentage from 34 percent to 38. That is still awful, though, and you couldn’t pick that poorly if you tried. Let’s try to get it fixed.
1. Clemson at Georgia Tech +10.5: Some believe Clemson is just fine and is holding back on using Deshaun Watson’s legs. Georgia Tech seems to have turned things around after a 3-9 2015 season. I’ll take double digits with the home dog.
2. Florida at Tennessee -6.5: I am taking a shot here against the very trendy Florida pick because the line has dropped from 10 to under a touchdown. The three teams Tennessee has played are way better than what Florida has faced.
3. Pitt at North Carolina -6.5: UNC seems to have found the ability to hand the ball off and QB Mitch Trubisky looked much better in the last few weeks. Pitt is off back-to-back emotional slugfests.
4. Louisville at Marshall +27.5: I bet against Marshall last week and won. Has Louisville’s stock ever been higher? Can Louisville possibly be up for this game with Clemson on deck? This is a play about soft factors, not talent.
5. Wisconsin +5.5 at Michigan State: Something is weird here. All of the chatter on social media suggests Michigan State should be favored big, and yet Vegas is practically begging people to take the Spartans at less than a TD. I’ll go against the trap.
6. LSU -3 at Auburn: The Bayou Bengals have Leonard Fournette back, and Auburn’s offensive tackles have been struggling against good rushers, like LSU’s Arden Key.
7. Arkansas v. Texas A&M -5.5 (Dallas): Arkansas could easily be 1-2 right now and is instead 3-0. Texas A&M played a solid game at Auburn, and its defense is playing great.
8. Georgia at Ole Miss -7: While Ole Miss’ emotional state coming off the loss to Alabama is in question, the Rebels have stopped the traditional run game well this year, and Georgia is lucky to be 3-0.
9. Central Michigan at Virginia +3.5: I’ve successfully backed Central Michigan and Virginia this year, but I’m not sure CMU’s stock can get any higher, so I am looking to fade.
10. UCF at FIU +7: UCF is coming off an emotional overtime loss against Maryland and could be in for a hangover.
11. East Carolina at Virginia Tech -11: Virginia Tech seems to be clicking on all cylinders after housing a good Boston College defense last week.
12. Army at Buffalo +14.5: Army is now 3-0 against the spread, and this line feels inflated.
13. Syracuse at Connecticut -4: Syracuse is a mess right now, and UConn plays disciplined defense.
14. Iowa at Rutgers +13.5: This is a wager on Las Vegas knowing something that the public does not. Why won’t any books budge and give bettors +14? Maybe Rutgers is better than I think or Iowa worse than it appears.
15. Nebraska at Northwestern +7.5: Nebraska, off a bit of a lucky win in a huge game against Oregon, now must go to play Northwestern in a big letdown spot.
16. Stanford at UCLA +3.5: The Bruins have the better quarterback, and while Stanford has owned the series, Rosen is the best QB the Bruins have had in quite a while.
17. Cal at Arizona State -4: The Sun Devils survived an obvious sandwich spot in San Antonio last week and now host a Cal team off a huge, draining win over Texas.
18. Wake Forest at Indiana -6.5: Indiana is simply too competent on offense for Wake to keep up here.
19. Mississippi State -21.5 at UMass: The key factors here include Mississippi State not having a big game next week, which eliminates the look-ahead factor and UMass being terrible.
20. BYU v. West Virginia -6.5 (Washington, D.C.): BYU just played a slugfest against UCLA and West Virginia is off on a bye. Add in some cross-country travel and the Mountaineers are the pick.
21. North Texas at Rice -7: Having watched full games of North Texas and Rice last week, it’s clear North Texas’ offense cannot get out of its own way, while Rice is almost competent.
22. Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky -7: Vanderbilt’s offense is incompetent, averaging 4.33 yards/play against South Carolina, Middle Tennessee State, and Vanderbilt.
23. Nevada at Purdue -5: The Boilermakers are off a bye and running back Markell Jones is listed as probable. If Purdue loses this it might not win an FBS game in 2016.
24. Bowling Green +17 at Memphis: Memphis is a good team but 17 points is a lot against a team in the Falcons that can score.
Notes on big games I did not bet that you’ll ask about
Despite betting lots of games each week to reach multiple fan bases, I don’t bet them all. Here are some thoughts on four big games I did not take this week, as I know they’ll be asked about.
Penn State +19 at Michigan: Michigan does seem overrated, especially after coming back in part due to Colorado’s QB getting hurt last week, but backing Penn State here with all of its defensive injuries is too tough for my taste without getting a full three touchdowns.
Colorado at Oregon (no line yet): I have no idea if Colorado will have Sefo Liufau.
Washington at Arizona (no line yet): Will Arizona have QB Anu Solomon or running back Nick Wilson?
Florida State at USF +5: If I could get USF plus a full touchdown, I’d be all over it, as FSU is pretty banged-up and reeling.