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Clemson Tigers (13-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0)
January 9, 2017 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Alabama -6.5
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (28.9 - 20.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Alabama | Clemson | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 1 | 3 | ||
| Category | Alabama offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Alabama defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.21 (24) | 4.39 (4) | 6.13 (28) | 3.79 (1) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 454.4 (33) | 310.6 (8) | 508.9 (10) | 248.9 (1) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.10 (12) | 1.25 (4) | 2.91 (16) | 0.86 (1) |
| Category | Alabama offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Alabama defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39.4 (9) | 13.8 (6) | 39.8 (6) | 5.9 (1) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 134.0 (2) | 113.6 (26) | 113.0 (30) | 190.4 (1) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 115.8 (25) | 133.5 (4) | 133.0 (6) | 163.8 (2) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 122.0 (9) | 111.0 (27) | 124.7 (5) | 164.0 (1) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 132.2 (7) | 153.5 (3) | 122.5 (17) | 184.7 (1) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 127.4 (15) | 162.1 (2) | 131.8 (8) | 186.0 (1) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 122.8 (12) | 122.8 (15) | 133.0 (3) | 164.4 (1) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 130.5 (10) | 125.8 (8) | 119.4 (23) | 192.0 (1) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.8 (28) | 102.4 (56) | 118.4 (12) | 129.3 (5) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Alabama
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 1 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 27 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 10 defense vs. No. 47 offense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 30 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 32 defense)
Clemson
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 17 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 33 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 4 defense vs. No. 43 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 25 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 29 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Alabama offense | Clemson defense | Clemson offense | Alabama defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.31 (48) | 1.24 (58) | 1.20 (97) | 1.22 (41) |
| EFFICIENCY | 47.2% (16) | 35.2% (8) | 50.1% (6) | 27.9% (1) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.2 (33) | 27.9 (36) | 32.8 (16) | 27.1 (20) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.5 (68) | 3.5 (8) | 4.8 (35) | 3.0 (1) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Alabama 7.19 (14) Clemson 3.81 (36) |
ACTUAL Alabama 8 (17) Clemson 1 (54) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama offense | Clemson offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.2 (61) | 7.5 (13) |
| Plays per game | 73.2 (67) | 83.1 (9) |
| Possessions per game | 12.7 (82) | 13.6 (35) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.8% (57) | 51.4% (107) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.9% (16) | 25.4% (110) |
| % of solo tackles | 75.7% (47) | 72.5% (83) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama defense | Clemson defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.6% (98) | 53.1% (117) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 25.5% (124) | 29.1% (110) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 22.4% (3) | 22.1% (4) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 14.0% (4) | 13.9% (5) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.3% (13) | 8.1% (15) |
| PD to INC | 32.9% (65) | 36.2% (37) |
When Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Alabama Offense | Clemson Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.0 | 9 | 111.0 | 27 | Alabama |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.2 | 13 | 42.8 | 24 | Alabama |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 69 | 1.14 | 90 | Alabama |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.21 | 31 | 2.64 | 26 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 6.9% | 105 | 7.4% | 17 | Clemson big |
Passing Downs
| Alabama Offense | Clemson Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 132.2 | 7 | 153.5 | 3 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.0 | 41 | 21.7 | 4 | Clemson |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.10 | 6 | 1.41 | 15 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.40 | 53 | 2.27 | 6 | Clemson |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.5% | 29 | 13.1% | 8 | Clemson |
When Clemson has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Clemson Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 124.7 | 5 | 164.0 | 1 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.6 | 7 | 32.1 | 1 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.10 | 71 | 1.15 | 83 | Clemson |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.10 | 50 | 2.09 | 1 | Alabama |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.1% | 26 | 6.8% | 26 | |
Passing Downs
| Clemson Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 122.5 | 17 | 184.7 | 1 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.1 | 14 | 21.3 | 3 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.62 | 106 | 1.59 | 1 | Alabama big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.67 | 25 | 1.95 | 4 | Alabama |
| PD Sack Rate | 2.3% | 2 | 10.7% | 12 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics