All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 107-74 (59 percent) following a 12-8-1 Week 10; 33 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected.
What a fun weekend we have on tap.
1. Temple -2.5 at Cincinnati: Temple's defense is strong. I expect the Owls to shut down Cincinnati’s horrid offense. Update: This one was too easy. Cincinnati’s first six drives started as follows: punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt, missed field goal. That allowed Temple to build a two-touchdown lead. The Owls led by as much as 18, and at no point in the second half was the cover in real jeopardy.
2. Notre Dame -3 at Miami: Notre Dame hits home runs on the ground. Miami gives them up. This is a flyball pitcher in a bandbox situation.
3. Georgia at Auburn +3: Auburn is the best defensive front Georgia has faced. I believe the Tigers can make Georgia need to throw, as opposed to throwing when it wants to. Jake Fromm has thrown only 22 passes on third-and-7 or longer. That is incredible protection of a young QB, but it could end Saturday.
4. TCU at Oklahoma -6.5: I just do not think TCU can score with Oklahoma. I love Gary Patterson and TCU's defense, but do not trust Kenny Hill to keep up with Baker Mayfield.
5. Duke -2.5 at Army: Duke is off a bye, which is ideal for defending the option. Army is in a big letdown spot off its rivalry win against Air Force. Duke needs this game for a bowl.
6. Kentucky at Vanderbilt -2: Vanderbilt's offense seems to be a bit more on track, while Kentucky remains one of the luckiest teams in the nation. UK’s second-order wins are 3.2, yet they are 6-3 on the season. They have won games in which their win expectancies were 6 percent, 57 percent, 16 percent, and 35 percent. Their losses have been definitive.
7. New Mexico +19 at Texas A&M: Will A&M show up? Will they be looking ahead to Ole Miss?
8. Purdue +5 at Northwestern: Northwestern has played three consecutive games in overtime. Eventually, that can wear on a team.
9. Rutgers at Penn State -30: Rutgers was blown away by Ohio State and Michigan. Credit RU for playing tough against opponents of similar talent, but Penn State has too much firepower.
10. Texas Tech -7.5 vs. Baylor: I bet Baylor last week and won, but the Red Raiders need this one for a bowl game, and were quite unlucky against Kansas State last week.
11 and 12. UL-Lafayette at Ole Miss -19 AND Over 67: ULL's defense is atrocious. Ole Miss' defense is not great, and this is certainly a potential look-ahead spot, but the Rebels offense is humming.
13. Virgina Tech at Georgia Tech +3: Virginia Tech is coming off a crushing, emotional loss. Good luck regrouping to play the Yellow Jackets.
14. Virginia at Louisville -11: I do not trust UVA's defense against Lamar Jackson.
15. West Virginia +2.5 at Kansas State: I just do not trust Kansas State's offense. Yes, I'll sign the waiver acknowledging the danger in betting a road team at KSU.
16. Washington State at Utah +1: Wazzu on the road has been horrid. I have had a good read on Washington State all year.
17. Arizona State at UCLA -2: Josh Rosen should be playing, and I'll look to play against an overreaction to the blowout UCLA suffered at the hands of Utah last week.
18. Boise State -5 at Colorado State: Boise State has regrouped and is pounding opponents, following a poor start to the season.