All wagers are at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Season record: 118-81 (59 percent) following a 11-7 Week 11; 37 games over .500 is a much better year than I expected. At the same time, I felt that I got lucky last week in a few spots.
This weekend looks really boring. But I often bet on boring or bad teams. The money spends the same.
1. UNLV +2 at New Mexico: New Mexico is officially on my "quit list." I am actively looking to fade the Lobos. Their offense has cratered. This line is rising, so by the time you see it, it might be +3. Update: UNLV won and covered, but I thought the Rebels would dominate and that this wouldn’t even be close. Young QB Armani Rogers, however, is going to be something special. I am making a mental note to take the Rebels Over their total for the season next year.
2. Michigan +8 at Wisconsin: Don Brown's Michigan defense does not give up methodical drives. Per Football Study Hall, the Wolverines are No. 1 nationally in efficiency. Wisconsin wants to go on methodical marches. Styles make fights, and Michigan will dare Wisconsin to make big plays. This bet says the Badgers won't make enough.
3. Air Force at Boise State -17: Boise State has been playing much better of late and should avenge three recent losses to the Falcons.
4. Arizona State at Oregon State +7.5: I don't really like this play. I looked for a reason to spike it, but I cannot find a good enough reason to. My system this year is 37 games over .500, so play it and hold your nose.
5. Army at North Texas -2.5: I like what coach Seth Littrell is doing in Denton. The Mean Green have posted win expectancies of 99, 94, and 100 percent in the last three weeks.
6. Cal +16 at Stanford: Calm off a bye, catching more than two touchdowns against an inconsistent Stanford? Yes, please.
7. Cincinnati -3 at East Carolina: This is the rare opportunity to play against East Carolina while laying just a field goal.
8. Georgia Tech at Duke +7: I had Georgia Tech last weekend and cashed, but Duke did play Army's offense quite well (a blocked punt for Army helped inflate the score.) This is back-to-back weeks against option teams for the Blue Devils.
9. Iowa State at Baylor +9.5: If you can wait and get 10, do so. Iowa State just played a draining game against Oklahoma State, and I have been nailing Baylor games, both for and against, of late.
10. Kentucky at Georgia -21: I went against Georgia successfully in the last two weeks, but it ends this week. Vandy put up 5.8 yards per play on Kentucky's defense last weekend.
11 . Marshall at UTSA +1: Perhaps my favorite bet of the week. Marshall was very lucky in Week 11 against Western Kentucky, having been outgained 6.0-4.3 on a per-play basis. UTSA, on the other hand, was somewhat unlucky.
12. Minnesota +7.5 at Northwestern: This is just a lot for a Northwestern team that does not score a lot of points.
13. Missouri at Vanderbilt +9: I have been riding the Missouri train successfully, but this does feel pretty inflated, perhaps due to the circumstances of Missouri's recent games against Tennessee and Florida teams that laid down in Columbia.
14. New Mexico State -4 at Lafayette: Lafayette’s defense is simply awful — 125th in the nation in S&P+. Ole Miss could have scored 75 last week if it had kept the pedal down. NMSU is off a bye.
15. Pitt +16 at Virginia Tech: Pitt played a much better game against North Carolina than the score indicated. Virginia Tech is off a very tough game against Georgia Tech.
16. Purdue +8 at Iowa: Iowa's offense looked terrible last week, which is more fitting with what it has been for much of the year, as opposed to the outlier game against Ohio State.
17. Texas A&M at Ole Miss -2.5: Ole Miss' offense is far and away the best unit in this game.
18. Texas State at Arkansas State -26: I rarely lay this many points, but Arkansas State had some incredibly bad turnover luck last week and can really score. Texas State's defense is not good, and its offense is terrible.
19. UAB +11 at Florida: Florida is laying double digits against a competent FBS opponent? The hell?
20. UCLA at USC -15.5: UCLA's run defense is one of the worst you will ever see at the Power 5 level. USC has Ronald Jones II and Stephen Carr, plus Sam Darnold throwing off play action.
21. ULM +37 at Auburn: This is just begging for a back-door cover. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has been all-in on keeping the pedal down since the LSU, game, but this is a major sandwich spot between Georgia and Alabama coming to town. ULM's offense is sneakily awesome.
22. Virginia +20 at Miami: Miami has played two awesome games in as many weeks, and it deserves credit for that high level of play. However, the other games are also still on the resume, and this is a big letdown spot.
23. Arizona at Oregon PK: Arizona is not a great road team, and its run defense is rather poor. With quarterback Justin Herbert back, I expect the Ducks to simply outscore the Wildcats.