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Predicting the winner of every game in a huge Week 10 of CFB, from Bedlam to ODU-Charlotte

November starts with a bang.

Oklahoma State v Oklahoma Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images

November is when the college football season begins, and wow, does the first weekend of November feature a loaded slate. We’ve got seven games pitting two teams ranked in the top 25, easily the most this season. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State is a national title eliminator. You could sort of say the same about Virginia Tech at Miami. Clemson at NC State is for the ACC Atlantic lead. Arizona at USC is for the Pac-12 South lead.

Lots going on. Let’s set some expectations.

Below are picks and projections using the S&P+ projections you can find in full in the Football Study Hall stat profiles. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I’m listing the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. Thus far, performance has been the direct opposite of last year, which began with a slow start and an October charge. This season saw an incredible September and ... less than incredible October. S&P+: the Virginia of projection systems.

Ranked vs. ranked

Miami v Virginia Tech Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images
  • No. 11 Oklahoma State (-2.5) 38, No. 5 Oklahoma 33 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, FS1)
  • No. 2 Alabama 34, No. 19 LSU (+21.5) 16 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, CBS)
  • No. 10 Miami (+2.5) 27, No. 13 Virginia Tech 24 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)
  • No. 4 Clemson 30, No. 20 NC State (+8) 24 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)
  • No. 7 Penn State 26, No. 24 Michigan State (+8.5) 22 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, Fox)
  • No. 17 USC 35, No. 22 Arizona (+7) 31 (Saturday, 10:45 PM ET, ESPN)
  • No. 25 Washington State 29, No. 21 Stanford (+2) 27 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Fox)

The best thing about this part of the slate? Things are evenly spread out! One game in the early-Saturday session, three in the afternoon, two in the evening, and one for #Pac12AfterDark.

Other ranked teams in action

Georgia v South Carolina Photo by Todd Bennett/GettyImages
  • No. 1 Georgia 37, South Carolina (+24) 16 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)
  • No. 3 Notre Dame 33, Wake Forest (+14) 22 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, NBC)
  • No. 6 Ohio State 34, Iowa (+18) 18 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)
  • No. 8 TCU (-6.5) 31, Texas 17 (Saturday, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN)
  • No. 9 Wisconsin 29, Indiana (+12.5) 18 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC)
  • No. 12 Washington 35, Oregon (+17.5) 19 (Saturday, 10:00 PM ET, FS1)
  • No. 14 Auburn 32, Texas A&M (+15) 19 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)
  • West Virginia 30, No. 15 Iowa State (+2) 29 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • No. 16 Mississippi State 35, Massachusetts (+28) 17 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, SECN)
  • No. 18 Central Florida 40, SMU (+14.5) 31 (Saturday, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • No. 23 Memphis (-12.5) 42, Tulsa 29 (Friday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

Georgia wrapped up October by romping over a former Steve Spurrier team. Now the Dawgs get a chance to begin November the same way.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Nebraska v Northwestern Photo by David Banks/Getty Images
  • Baylor 29, Kansas (+8) 29 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, FSN affiliates)
  • California (-7.5) 33, Oregon State 25 (Saturday, 5:00 PM ET, Pac-12)
  • Colorado (+4) 30, Arizona State 30 (Saturday, 9:00 PM ET, Pac-12)
  • Florida State 26, Syracuse (+5) 25 (Saturday, 12:20 PM ET, ACCN)
  • Georgia Tech 26, Virginia (+10) 26 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ACCN)
  • Michigan 27, Minnesota (+15.5) 18 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, Fox)
  • Missouri (-3.5) 35, Florida 27 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • Nebraska (-1) 28, Northwestern 26 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)
  • Ole Miss (+3.5) 32, Kentucky 31 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, SECN)
  • Purdue (-14) 32, Illinois 18 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)
  • Rutgers (+3) 26, Maryland 26 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)
  • Texas Tech (-3) 34, Kansas State 30 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, FS1)
  • Utah 34, UCLA (+6.5) 29 (Friday, 9:30 PM ET, FS1)

Life hack: always watch Nebraska-Northwestern. Almost every game they play has a crazy finish.

FBS vs. FBS

South Carolina v Tennessee Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
  • Air Force 34, Army (+6.5) 33 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Appalachian State 35, UL-Monroe (+9.5) 28 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Arkansas 34, Coastal Carolina (+23.5) 26 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, SECN)
  • Boise State 38, Nevada (+22) 19 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Bowling Green (-1.5) 28, Kent State 25 (Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET) (BGSU covered)
  • Colorado State 28, Wyoming (+3) 26 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Eastern Michigan 33, Ball State (+24) 18 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Florida Atlantic 31, Marshall (+7.5) 25 (Friday, 6:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Fresno State (-14.5) 33, BYU 14 (Saturday, 10:45 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • Georgia State (-4) 31, Georgia Southern 20 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Houston 43, East Carolina (+24.5) 21 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Middle Tennessee 32, UTEP (+17.5) 18 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, beIN)
  • Navy 31, Temple (+8) 27 (Thursday, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
  • New Mexico 28, Utah State (+4) 26 (Saturday, 5:30 PM ET, MWC Video)
  • New Mexico State 29, Texas State (+9.5) 24 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • North Texas (+4) 34, Louisiana Tech 31 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Facebook)
  • Ohio (-7) 30, Miami-OH 22 (Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET) (Ohio covered)
  • Old Dominion 29, Charlotte (+8) 24 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • San Diego State 33, San Jose State (+24) 18 (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • South Alabama (-5.5) 33, UL-Lafayette 25 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • South Florida 40, UConn (+24) 19 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Southern Miss (+6.5) 29, Tennessee 19 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, SECN)
  • Toledo 29, Northern Illinois (+8) 23 (Thursday, 6:00 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Troy 32, Idaho (+18) 18 (Thursday, 9:15 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Tulane (-5.5) 33, Cincinnati 26 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • UAB (-10.5) 37, Rice 18 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, $CUSA Video)
  • UNLV (-7.5) 37, Hawaii 29 (Saturday, 6:00 PM ET, MWC Video)
  • UTSA (-4.5) 31, Florida International 24 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, Stadium)
  • Vanderbilt 28, Western Kentucky (+10) 26 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Western Michigan (-4) 31, Central Michigan 21 (Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET) (WMU did not cover)

Yep, S&P+ picks Southern Miss to beat Tennessee in Knoxville. Butch Jones is already basically fired anyway, at least.

The first game in the three-game Commander-in-Chief Trophy battle was a masterpiece. Will Army-Air Force be just as good?


Each year at Football Study Hall, I have posted weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own. And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)

This year, I am posting the weekly S&P+ picks at SB Nation instead of FSH.