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Predicting the winner of every game in a huge Week 11 of CFB, from Auburn-Georgia to UMass-Maine

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Picks and projections for the college football season’s biggest FBS week yet.

NCAA Football: Auburn at Georgia Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11’s college football slate is absolutely loaded.

  • We’ve got three battles between top-10 teams — Georgia at Auburn, Notre Dame at Miami, and TCU at Oklahoma.
  • We’ve got four other ranked vs. ranked battles — Alabama at Mississippi State, Iowa at Wisconsin, Michigan State at Ohio State, and Oklahoma State at Iowa State.
  • The rivalry battles are picking up, not only with Georgia-Auburn, but also Clemson-FSU, Washington-Stanford, Texas Tech-Baylor, Boise State-Colorado State, and, of course, UConn-UCF.

The stakes are high from start to finish. Let’s lay out some expectations.

Below are picks and projections using the S&P+ projections you can find in full in the Football Study Hall stat profiles. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I’m listing the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. After some up-and-down weeks, S&P+ had a lovely week 10. Here’s to a lovely week 11 as well.

Ranked vs. ranked

NCAA Football: Mississippi State at Alabama
Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 1 Georgia 26, No. 10 Auburn (+2.5) 24 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS)
  • No. 2 Alabama 28, No. 16 Mississippi State (+14) 20 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
  • No. 7 Miami (+3.5) 30, No. 3 Notre Dame 29 (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, ABC)
  • No. 5 Oklahoma 32, No. 6 TCU (+6.5) 32* (Saturday, 8:00 PM ET, Fox)
  • No. 8 Wisconsin (-12.5) 31, No. 20 Iowa 18 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ABC)
  • No. 13 Ohio State 33, No. 12 Michigan State (+16) 19 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, Fox)
  • No. 15 Oklahoma State 32, No. 21 Iowa State (+6.5) 27 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)

Not only are there seven ranked vs. ranked matchups, but for the second straight week, the schedule is nicely balanced: two games in Saturday’s early session, two in the afternoon, and three in the evening. Perfect.

* Actual projection with decimals: OU 32.4, TCU 31.6

Other ranked teams in action

NCAA Football: Clemson at Florida State
Clemson’s Deon Cain
Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 4 Clemson (-15.5) 33, Florida State 15 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN)
  • No. 9 Washington (-6) 31, Stanford 22 (Friday, 10:30 PM ET, FS1)
  • No. 11 USC 35, Colorado (+13.5) 26 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, Fox)
  • No. 14 Penn State 35, Rutgers (+31) 16 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)
  • No. 17 Virginia Tech (-3) 26, Georgia Tech 22 (Saturday, 12:20 PM ET, ACCN)
  • No. 18 UCF 51, Connecticut (+38.5) 19 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • No. 19 Washington State (-1) 27, Utah 25 (Saturday, 5:30 PM ET, Pac-12)
  • No. 23 NC State (-3) 30, Boston College 25 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN2)
  • No. 24 LSU 35, Arkansas (+17) 22 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN)
  • Purdue (+4.5) 27, No. 25 Northwestern 25 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)

S&P+ has been lukewarm on Clemson this year, as the Tigers have settled into doing the bare minimum to build a healthy advantage before throwing it in cruise control. That should work just fine against FSU, unless the Noles find an extra spark.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

NCAA Football: South Carolina at Tennessee
South Carolina’s Will Muschamp
Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
  • Arizona 42, Oregon State (+22.5) 23 (Saturday, 10:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • Indiana 28, Illinois (+9.5) 20 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, BTN)
  • Louisville 33, Virginia (+11) 28 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Michigan 31, Maryland (+17) 21 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, BTN)
  • Minnesota 26, Nebraska (+2.5) 24 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, FS1)
  • Missouri 34, Tennessee (+10.5) 24 (Saturday, 7:30 PM ET, SECN)
  • Pittsburgh 29, North Carolina (+9.5) 26 (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN)
  • South Carolina (-6.5) 30, Florida 22 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, CBS)
  • Texas 34, Kansas (+34) 16 (Saturday, 6:00 PM ET, LHN)
  • Texas Tech (-7.5) 38, Baylor 27 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, FSN affiliates)
  • UCLA (-3) 36, Arizona State 31 (Saturday, 9:30 PM ET, Pac-12)
  • Vanderbilt (-2.5) 30, Kentucky 25 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, SECN)
  • Wake Forest (+1) 29, Syracuse 26 (Saturday, 3:00 PM ET, ACCN)
  • West Virginia (+2.5) 33, Kansas State 31 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

The Florida-South Carolina Muschamp Bowl is on CBS. That’s ... unfortunate.

FBS vs. FBS

NCAA Football: Army at Air Force
Army’s Ahmad Bradshaw
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

With emojis for games that happened before Thursday. Thumbs up = S&P+ was right.

  • Appalachian State (-17.5) 39, Georgia Southern 15 (Thursday, 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Arkansas State 32, South Alabama (+11.5) 23 (Saturday, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Army (+3) 32, Duke 24 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Boise State 29, Colorado State (+6) 29 (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Buffalo (-7) 33, Bowling Green 25 (Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET) —
  • Eastern Michigan (-1) 26, Central Michigan 23 (Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET) —
  • Florida Atlantic (-6) 35, Louisiana Tech 27 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Stadium)
  • Florida International (-9) 31, Old Dominion 18 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, $CUSA Video)
  • Fresno State (-10) 37, Hawaii 22 (Saturday, 11:00 PM ET, MWC App)
  • Marshall 30, Western Kentucky (+13) 21 (Saturday, 6:30 PM ET, beIN)
  • Miami (Ohio) (-1) 31, Akron 21 (Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET) —
  • Middle Tennessee 29, Charlotte (+12.5) 19 (Saturday, 2:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Nevada 34, San Jose State (+18.5) 26 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • North Texas (-22.5) 41, UTEP 17 (Saturday, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Northern Illinois 34, Ball State (+32) 14 (Thursday, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Ohio (+3) 30, Toledo 30* (Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET) —
  • Ole Miss 39, UL-Lafayette (+19.5) 29 (Saturday, 12:00 PM ET, SECN)
  • SMU (+4.5) 35, Navy 33 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • Southern Miss (-10.5) 36, Rice 16 (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, Facebook)
  • Temple 26, Cincinnati (+3) 25 (Friday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • Texas A&M 29, New Mexico (+18) 24 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU)
  • Texas State (+5.5) 25, Georgia State 25** (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Troy 34, Coastal Carolina (+17) 21 (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN3)
  • Tulane (-5.5) 38, East Carolina 29 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN)
  • UNLV (-4.5) 30, BYU 23 (Friday, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2)
  • UTSA 29, UAB (+8) 24 (Saturday, 7:00 PM ET, $CUSA Video)
  • Western Michigan (-20) 36, Kent State 14 (Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET) —
  • Wyoming (+3) 28, Air Force 24 (Saturday, 10:15 PM ET, ESPNU)

Army has a chance at 10 wins and the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. The Black Knights also have a chance to avenge a seven-point loss to Duke last year.

* Actual projection: Ohio 30.1, Toledo 29.9
** Actual projection: Texas State 24.830, Georgia State 24.826

FBS vs. FCS

  • Massachusetts 40, Maine 18 (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ELVN)

Football in Fenway Park!


Each year at Football Study Hall, I have posted weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own. And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)

This year, I am posting the weekly S&P+ picks at SB Nation instead of FSH.


Auburn should probably have another win in its rivalry against Georgia