The 11 college football offenses that improved (or declined) most in 2016

It’s exceedingly rare for a college football team to go from an outcast to a championship contender in a year (or even a few years), but teams can make huge leaps or huge declines in short order. The trick is improving both your offense and defense at once, then sustaining it. A few teams got started on offense in 2016.

At the bottom of this post is a list showing how each team’s offense fared in comparison to the year prior.

First, a collection of teams whose offenses jumped a long way from the season before. It’s based on offensive S&P+, an opponent-adjusted statistic by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly that seeks to accurately measure a team’s overall level of efficiency.

• Missouri fielded an awful offense in 2015, when Barry Odom replaced Gary Pinkel as interim head coach and later had that tag removed. For 2016, the Tigers hired away Utah State offensive coordinator Josh Heupel, who worked wonders. Mizzou went from 4.4 yards per play to 6.3 and 14 points per game to 31. The bad news? Missouri’s defense had the largest S&P+ decline in the country, making the offense’s gains mostly moot.
• Wyoming was a really fun team, and the offense was the primary reason. It went from 19 to 36 points, on average, and had one of the best offenses outside the Power 5. Sophomore quarterback Josh Allen threw 15 picks, but he also had 28 touchdowns and went over 3,000 yards.
• Northwestern improved more than 50 spots in Offensive S&P+ ranking, but that only got the Wildcats from 20 to 26 points per game, a 27-spot jump. Tough breaks.
• Penn State and USF went from mediocre to elite. The Nittany Lions figured out an offensive line for the first time in James Franklin’s three years, and quarterback Trace McSorley was a revelation. (It didn’t hurt that he had a few dominant receivers, most notably the large Chris Godwin.) USF’s spread, run-pass option offense was a nightmare for defenses, with quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack each looking close to unstoppable; Flowers returns for Charlie Strong.

• Bowling Green’s up-tempo spread under Dino Babers, called #FalconFast, was devastating in 2015. But it wasn’t just Babers. Quarterback Matt Johnson was prolific, and receivers Roger Lewis and Gehrig Dieter had excellent years. Bowling Green lost most of their key skill players, and Babers left for the job at Syracuse, labeling his scheme #OrangeIsTheNewFast. BGSU never had a chance.
• UCLA attempted a more pro-style direction on offense, but the bigger factor was losing QB Josh Rosen for half the season to injury.
• The Bearcats lost well-regarded coordinator Eddie Gran to Kentucky, and former Miami Dolphins interim OC Zac Taylor couldn’t replicate his results. UC lost its top five receivers, and while its rotating cast of quarterbacks had talent, the offense couldn’t move the ball.
• Indiana lost some key pieces. But even without 2015’s quarterback, Nate Sudfeld, and top receiver, Simmie Cobbs Jr., the passing game was perfectly decent. It was the running game that cratered without Jordan Howard. The loss of four-year starting left tackle Jason Spriggs was quite unhelpful.

Want to see how your team changed from 2015 to 2016? Here’s the all-FBS list: