clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile
SBNation.com homepage

Filed under:

130-team college football S&P+ rankings: The more things change ...

Alabama resumes its post atop the S&P+ rankings, though Georgia isn’t that far behind.

By Bill Connelly
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: JAN 01 Sugar Bowl - CFP Semifinal - Alabama v Clemson Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Here are Alabama’s year-end S&P+ rankings since 2009, Nick Saban’s first national title campaign in Tuscaloosa.

  • 2009: second
  • 2010: fourth
  • 2011: second
  • 2012: first
  • 2013: second
  • 2014: second
  • 2015: first
  • 2016: first
  • 2017, with one more game to play: first

Alabama’s offense is more limited than in recent years, and its defense has shown hints of mortality as the injury bug has bitten. And yet, with Monday’s 24-6 win over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, the Tide hit the doorstep of another national title and resumed their post atop the S&P+ rankings.

Below are my S&P+ ratings, updated after bowl season.

A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking. Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly.

(You can find full unit rankings, plus a yearly archive, at Football Outsiders. Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)

Post-bowl S&P+ rankings

Team Rec. S&P+ Rk Last Wk Change
Team Rec. S&P+ Rk Last Wk Change
Alabama 12-1 20.8 1 2 1
Ohio State 12-2 20.8 2 1 -1
Georgia 13-1 18.6 3 3 0
Penn State 11-2 17.2 4 5 1
Washington 10-3 16.7 5 4 -1
Wisconsin 13-1 16.6 6 6 0
Central Florida 13-0 15.4 7 9 2
Clemson 12-2 15.3 8 7 -1
Oklahoma 12-2 15.0 9 8 -1
Auburn 10-4 14.2 10 10 0
Florida Atlantic 11-3 13.4 11 12 1
Oklahoma State 10-3 13.1 12 11 -1
Notre Dame 10-3 11.2 13 14 1
TCU 11-3 11.0 14 13 -1
South Florida 10-2 10.4 15 15 0
Louisville 8-5 9.3 16 17 1
Miami-FL 10-3 9.2 17 19 2
Appalachian State 9-4 9.1 18 35 17
Michigan State 10-3 9.1 19 27 8
Memphis 10-3 9.1 20 18 -2
LSU 9-4 9.1 21 20 -1
Ohio 9-4 8.8 22 33 11
Boise State 11-3 8.1 23 28 5
Fresno State 10-4 8.1 24 25 1
Arkansas State 7-5 8.1 25 23 -2
USC 11-3 8.1 26 22 -4
Michigan 8-5 7.8 27 21 -6
Mississippi State 9-4 7.8 28 26 -2
Virginia Tech 9-4 7.6 29 24 -5
Toledo 11-3 7.5 30 16 -14
Troy 11-2 7.4 31 37 6
Stanford 9-5 7.1 32 30 -2
Utah 7-6 6.9 33 39 6
San Diego State 10-3 6.6 34 38 4
Missouri 7-6 6.4 35 32 -3
Houston 7-5 6.4 36 29 -7
Wake Forest 8-5 6.0 37 36 -1
NC State 9-4 5.9 38 45 7
Washington State 9-4 5.4 39 31 -8
Southern Miss 8-5 5.2 40 34 -6
Purdue 7-6 5.1 41 41 0
Ole Miss 6-6 5.0 42 46 4
Florida State 7-6 4.9 43 51 8
Iowa State 8-5 4.8 44 44 0
Colorado State 7-6 4.7 45 42 -3
Northwestern 10-3 4.7 46 43 -3
Oregon 7-6 4.7 47 40 -7
Arizona 7-6 4.1 48 49 1
Iowa 8-5 3.8 49 47 -2
Texas 7-6 3.7 50 54 4
Indiana 5-7 3.5 51 50 -1
Marshall 8-5 3.5 52 58 6
Wyoming 8-5 3.4 53 61 8
Northern Illinois 8-5 3.3 54 48 -6
UTSA 6-5 3.3 55 52 -3
Miami-OH 5-7 3.2 56 53 -3
Utah State 6-7 2.8 57 55 -2
Texas Tech 6-7 2.8 58 57 -1
Army 10-3 2.1 59 59 0
South Carolina 9-4 2.0 60 66 6
Texas A&M 7-6 2.0 61 64 3
North Texas 9-5 1.9 62 56 -6
West Virginia 7-6 1.6 63 62 -1
Kansas State 8-5 1.3 64 65 1
Duke 7-6 1.2 65 70 5
Boston College 7-6 1.0 66 67 1
SMU 7-6 0.9 67 60 -7
Middle Tennessee 7-6 0.9 68 71 3
Navy 7-6 0.9 69 78 9
Eastern Michigan 5-7 0.9 70 68 -2
Louisiana Tech 7-6 0.8 71 80 9
New Mexico State 7-6 0.6 72 69 -3
Georgia Tech 5-6 0.5 73 72 -1
Western Michigan 6-6 0.2 74 74 0
Buffalo 6-6 0.2 75 76 1
UAB 8-5 0.1 76 63 -13
UCLA 6-7 0.1 77 75 -2
Temple 7-6 -0.2 78 86 8
Central Michigan 8-5 -0.7 79 73 -6
Vanderbilt 5-7 -1.2 80 81 1
Arizona State 7-6 -1.4 81 79 -2
Pittsburgh 5-7 -1.5 82 82 0
Western Kentucky 6-7 -1.8 83 84 1
Massachusetts 4-8 -1.8 84 85 1
Virginia 6-7 -1.9 85 77 -8
Florida 4-7 -2.2 86 87 1
California 5-7 -2.5 87 88 1
Syracuse 4-8 -2.7 88 89 1
Tulane 5-7 -2.8 89 90 1
Kentucky 7-6 -3.1 90 94 4
Arkansas 4-8 -3.2 91 92 1
Florida International 8-5 -3.2 92 83 -9
Colorado 5-7 -3.2 93 91 -2
North Carolina 3-9 -3.6 94 93 -1
UNLV 5-7 -4.4 95 95 0
Georgia State 7-5 -4.7 96 101 5
Minnesota 5-7 -4.8 97 96 -1
South Alabama 4-8 -4.9 98 97 -1
Idaho 4-8 -5.2 99 98 -1
Air Force 5-7 -5.4 100 100 0
BYU 4-9 -5.4 101 99 -2
Cincinnati 4-8 -5.8 102 103 1
Nebraska 4-8 -5.9 103 102 -1
New Mexico 3-9 -6.1 104 104 0
UL-Monroe 4-8 -6.4 105 105 0
Baylor 1-11 -6.5 106 106 0
Tennessee 4-8 -6.9 107 107 0
Nevada 3-9 -7.2 108 108 0
Bowling Green 2-10 -7.2 109 109 0
Rutgers 4-8 -7.4 110 111 1
Coastal Carolina 3-9 -8.0 111 112 1
Akron 7-7 -8.5 112 110 -2
UL-Lafayette 5-7 -8.6 113 113 0
Maryland 4-8 -8.8 114 114 0
Old Dominion 5-7 -9.7 115 115 0
Tulsa 2-10 -9.9 116 116 0
Texas State 2-10 -10.1 117 117 0
Illinois 2-10 -11.0 118 118 0
Connecticut 3-9 -11.4 119 119 0
Georgia Southern 2-10 -11.6 120 120 0
Hawaii 3-9 -11.8 121 121 0
Ball State 2-10 -13.3 122 122 0
East Carolina 3-9 -13.9 123 123 0
Charlotte 1-11 -14.6 124 124 0
Kansas 1-11 -14.7 125 125 0
Kent State 2-10 -14.9 126 127 1
Oregon State 1-11 -14.9 127 126 -1
Rice 1-11 -15.0 128 128 0
San Jose State 2-11 -16.2 129 129 0
UTEP 0-12 -18.5 130 130 0

Bowl season’s top movers (good)

  1. Appalachian State (up 17 spots, from 35th to 18th)
  2. Ohio (up 11 spots, from 33rd to 22nd)
  3. Navy (up nine spots, from 78th to 69th)
  4. Louisiana Tech (up nine spots, from 80th to 71st)
  5. Michigan State (up eight spots, from 27th to 19th)
  6. Florida State (up eight spots, from 51st to 43rd)
  7. Wyoming (up eight spots, from 61st to 53rd)
  8. Temple (up eight spots, from 86th to 78th)
  9. NC State (up seven spots, from 45th to 38th)

With each passing year, we grow more isolated. Power conferences, for instance, are moving to nine-game slate with “must play another P5 team in non-conference play” scheduling requirements. That constricts connectivity among conferences.

Bowl season is no different. Barely any P5 teams played before Christmas, leaving almost entirely G5 vs. G5 matchups. After Christmas, nearly every game was P5 vs. P5. That hurts computer ratings. I will be revisiting how best to make opponent adjustments once the season is officially over.

That said, most of the bowl season movers were pretty predictable. Appalachian State moved up 17 spots for destroying Toledo, while Toledo moved down 14 spots. Ohio moved up 11 spots for destroying UAB, while UAB moved down 13 spots. Et cetera.

At the top of the rankings, we did have some noteworthy moves. Alabama jumped slightly ahead of Ohio State with its win over Clemson, and Penn State jumped Washington after beating the Huskies by a touchdown in the Fiesta Bowl. UCF moved up to seventh after beating Auburn, a team that beat both of the national title game participants. The Knights crept ahead of both semifinal losers, Clemson and Oklahoma. I think that’s justifiable.

Bowl season’s top movers (bad)

  1. Toledo (down 14 spots, from 16th to 30th)
  2. UAB (down 13 spots, from 63rd to 76th)
  3. FIU (down nine spots, from 83rd to 92nd)
  4. Washington State (down eight spots, from 31st to 39th)
  5. Virginia (down eight spots, from 77th to 85th)
  6. Houston (down seven spots, from 29th to 36th)
  7. Oregon (down seven spots, from 40th to 47th)
  8. SMU (down seven spots, from 60th to 67th)

The biggest surprise here: Virginia only moved down eight spots after laying the biggest egg of bowl season (Toledo aside), an outright debacle against Navy.

SEC! SEC! SEC! SEC!

FBS conferences, ranked by average S&P+ rating:

  1. SEC (plus-5.0, up 0.2)
  2. ACC (plus-3.7, up 0.0)
  3. Big Ten (plus-3.6, down 0.1)
  4. Big 12 (plus-3.2, down 0.1)
  5. Pac-12 (plus-2.6, down 0.3)
  6. AAC (minus-0.2, down 0.1)
  7. Mountain West (minus-1.4, up 0.3)
  8. MAC (minus-1.7, down 0.2)
  9. Conference USA (minus-2.4, down 0.1)
  10. Sun Belt (minus-2.9, up 0.4)

The Big Ten made waves by nearly going unbeaten in bowl play, finishing 7-1. Only, seven Big Ten teams were favored; in the end, one (Purdue) pulled a slight upset, and one (Michigan) got upset. So in terms of S&P+ averages, the conference basically stayed where it was — third place, slightly behind the ACC and a point and a half behind the SEC.

The SEC was not nearly as high-quality as it has been in other recent seasons, but in a year with minimal dominance, impressive January 1 results (Bama over Clemson, Georgia over Oklahoma, South Carolina over Michigan) assured that the league would once again finish No. 1 in S&P+.

Next Up In College Football