Each year, Las Vegas posts prop bets for college football teams’ over/under regular season win totals, excluding conference title games and bowls. Vegas is quite good, so those wagers often come down to the final games of the season.

Checking results against the Vegas expectation is a good lens of perspective through which to view the season’s results to date.

The biggest winners

Six teams exceeded their Vegas win total wagers by 3.5 or more games.

• Buffalo had an over/under of 6.5 and won 10 games. Despite losing the MAC Championship, this was still a great year.
• Georgia Southern not only got back to a bowl, but its nine wins were well over the 5.5 number Vegas hung for the Eagles in the preseason.
• Kentucky had a great year with nine wins. Vegas wasn’t even sure the Wildcats would make a bowl, making their preseason number 5.5.
• Syracuse was Kentucky’s equal, exceeding its 5.5 preseason line by winning nine.

But two teams went truly above and beyond.

• From the Power 5, Washington State’s 10 wins are an incredible four wins better than its preseason line of six.
• And from the Group of 5, give it up for Cincinnati! The Bearcats doubled their preseason number of 5 by throwing up a 10 in the win column.

The worst losers

Six teams won 3.5 or fewer games than their season win totals.

• Central Michigan won just one game. Vegas had them pegged for 4.5.
• FAU won just five games. Lane Kiffin’s team was a preseason darling, with a number of 8.5.
• And USC, which decided to keep Clay Helton, missed a bowl game, going 5-7 with a preseason number of 8.5.

But three teams were extra disappointing.

• From the Group of 5, Navy has just three wins. The preseason number for the Midshipmen was seven! (Note: Navy can still beat Army this weekend. The year would still be a huge disappointment for certain gamblers, if much less so for Navy fans.)
• And Arkansas had a preseason number of six. Oops. The Razorbacks won just twice.
• But the champion for the most disappointing of all, is Louisville. Louisville’s number was seven, and it finished with just two wins!

Canceled

Due to nasty weather and public safety concerns, games are sometimes cancelled. While rules vary from casino to casino on what happens next, the odds I am using are from 5Dimes, whose house rules state that 12 games must be played, or otherwise the bet is canceled.

This year, Akron, Appalachian State, Central Florida, North Carolina, Southern Miss, and West Virginia are cancellations by 5 Dimes’ rules.

Below are the numbers for all FBS teams

Odds are from 5Dimes Casino as of late August.