clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Which college football teams most exceeded (or missed) 2018 expectations?

New, comments

Did you bet on college football win totals? Check your status here.

Arizona v Washington State Photo by William Mancebo/Getty Images

Each year, Las Vegas posts prop bets for college football teams’ over/under regular season win totals, excluding conference title games and bowls. Vegas is quite good, so those wagers often come down to the final games of the season.

Checking results against the Vegas expectation is a good lens of perspective through which to view the season’s results to date.

The biggest winners

Six teams exceeded their Vegas win total wagers by 3.5 or more games.

  • Buffalo had an over/under of 6.5 and won 10 games. Despite losing the MAC Championship, this was still a great year.
  • Georgia Southern not only got back to a bowl, but its nine wins were well over the 5.5 number Vegas hung for the Eagles in the preseason.
  • Kentucky had a great year with nine wins. Vegas wasn’t even sure the Wildcats would make a bowl, making their preseason number 5.5.
  • Syracuse was Kentucky’s equal, exceeding its 5.5 preseason line by winning nine.

But two teams went truly above and beyond.

  • From the Power 5, Washington State’s 10 wins are an incredible four wins better than its preseason line of six.
  • And from the Group of 5, give it up for Cincinnati! The Bearcats doubled their preseason number of 5 by throwing up a 10 in the win column.

The worst losers

Six teams won 3.5 or fewer games than their season win totals.

  • Central Michigan won just one game. Vegas had them pegged for 4.5.
  • FAU won just five games. Lane Kiffin’s team was a preseason darling, with a number of 8.5.
  • And USC, which decided to keep Clay Helton, missed a bowl game, going 5-7 with a preseason number of 8.5.

But three teams were extra disappointing.

  • From the Group of 5, Navy has just three wins. The preseason number for the Midshipmen was seven! (Note: Navy can still beat Army this weekend. The year would still be a huge disappointment for certain gamblers, if much less so for Navy fans.)
  • And Arkansas had a preseason number of six. Oops. The Razorbacks won just twice.
  • But the champion for the most disappointing of all, is Louisville. Louisville’s number was seven, and it finished with just two wins!

Canceled

Due to nasty weather and public safety concerns, games are sometimes cancelled. While rules vary from casino to casino on what happens next, the odds I am using are from 5Dimes, whose house rules state that 12 games must be played, or otherwise the bet is canceled.

This year, Akron, Appalachian State, Central Florida, North Carolina, Southern Miss, and West Virginia are cancellations by 5 Dimes’ rules.

Below are the numbers for all FBS teams

Odds are from 5Dimes Casino as of late August.

2018 College Football Win Totals

Team & Wager Odds Wins Result
Team & Wager Odds Wins Result
Air Force 4.5 -140 5 Over
Akron 4.5 130 4 Canceled
Alabama 11 -115 12 Over
Appalachian State 8.5 -105 9 Canceled
Arizona 8 -111 5 Under
Arizona State 4.5 -145 7 Over
Arkansas 6 -107 2 Under
Arkansas State 8.5 -180 8 Under
Army 7 -155 9 Over
Auburn 9 -115 7 Under
Ball State 4 100 4 Push
Baylor 5.5 -180 6 Over
Boise State 10 105 10 Push
Boston College 6.5 -165 7 Over
Bowling Green 4.5 110 3 Under
Buffalo U 6.5 -175 10 Over
BYU 5.5 -140 6 Over
California 6.5 -105 7 Over
Central Florida 9.5 100 12 Cancelled
Central Michigan 4.5 110 1 Under
Charlotte 3.5 120 5 Over
Cincinnati 5 -155 10 Over
Clemson 10.5 -115 12 Over
Coastal Carolina 4 105 5 Over
Colorado 4.5 -150 5 Over
Colorado State 5.5 -115 3 Under
Connecticut 3 -135 1 Under
Duke 6.5 103 7 Over
East Carolina 3.5 110 3 Under
Eastern Michigan 5.5 -135 7 Over
Florida 8 -130 9 Over
Florida Atlantic 8.5 -120 5 Under
Florida Int 5 -125 8 Over
Florida State 8 -125 5 Under
Fresno State 8 -110 10 Over
Georgia 10.5 -120 11 Over
Georgia Southern 5.5 -205 9 Over
Georgia State 4.5 -105 2 Under
Georgia Tech 6 -120 7 Over
Hawaii 3.5 -130 8 Over
Houston 8 -105 8 Push
Illinois 4 140 4 Push
Indiana 5.5 -105 5 Under
Iowa 7.5 -120 8 Over
Iowa State 6.5 -120 8 Over
Kansas 3 155 3 Push
Kansas State 6.5 -125 5 Under
Kent State 2.5 120 2 Under
Kentucky 5.5 105 9 Over
Louisiana Tech 7 -120 7 Push
Louisville 7 100 2 Under
LSU 7 -101 9 Over
Marshall 8 -150 8 Push
Maryland 5 -140 5 Push
Massachusetts 5.5 -160 4 Under
Memphis 8.5 -135 8 Under
Miami Florida 9.5 -115 7 Under
Miami Ohio 6.5 -125 6 Under
Michigan 9 -115 10 Over
Michigan State 9 -105 7 Under
Middle Tennessee 7 -130 8 Over
Minnesota 6 105 6 Push
Mississippi 6 -125 5 Under
Mississippi State 8.5 -105 8 Under
Missouri 7 -125 8 Over
Navy 7 -170 3 Under
NC State 7.5 110 9 Over
Nebraska 6.5 -115 4 Under
Nevada 5.5 -160 7 Over
New Mexico 4 -115 3 Under
New Mexico State 6 110 3 Under
North Carolina 5.5 -150 2 Canceled
North Texas 8 110 9 Over
Northern Illinois 6.5 -120 7 Over
Northwestern 6 -125 8 Over
Notre Dame 9.5 100 12 Over
Ohio 8.5 -115 8 Under
Ohio State 10.5 -115 11 Over
Oklahoma 10 -130 11 Over
Oklahoma State 8 -115 6 Under
Old Dominion 5.5 -160 4 Under
Oregon 8.5 -140 8 Under
Oregon State 2.5 135 2 Under
Penn State 9.5 -105 9 Under
Pittsburgh U 5 -160 7 Over
Purdue 6 100 6 Push
Rice 3.5 -110 2 Under
Rutgers 3.5 -155 1 Under
San Diego State 8.5 -150 7 Under
San Jose State 2.5 -120 1 Under
SMU 5.5 125 5 Under
South Carolina 7.5 -109 7 Under
South Florida 8 -108 7 Under
Southern Miss 6.5 120 6 Canceled
Stanford 8.5 -115 8 Under
Syracuse 5.5 100 9 Over
TCU 7.5 -130 6 Under
Temple 6.5 -130 8 Over
Tennessee U 5.5 -125 5 Under
Texas 8.5 -135 9 Over
Texas A&M 7.5 100 8 Over
Texas State 3.5 -105 3 Under
Texas Tech 6 -155 5 Under
Toledo 8 -110 7 Under
Troy 7.5 -140 9 Over
Tulane 5.5 -125 6 Over
Tulsa 4.5 -105 3 Under
UAB 7.5 105 9 Over
UCLA 5.5 105 3 Under
UL Lafayette 4.5 105 7 Over
UL Monroe 5.5 -150 6 Over
UNLV 6 -130 4 Under
USC 8.5 -115 5 Under
Utah 7.5 107 9 Over
Utah State 7.5 -130 10 Over
UTEP 2.5 150 1 Under
UTSA 5 110 3 Under
Vanderbilt 4.5 100 6 Over
Virginia 5 110 5 Over
Virginia Tech 8 -130 6 Under
Wake Forest 6.5 100 6 Under
Washington State 6 105 10 Over
Washington U 10 -131 9 Under
West Virginia 7.5 -108 8 Canceled
Western Kentucky 5 -125 3 Under
Western Michigan 6.5 -110 7 Over
Wisconsin 10 -115 7 Under
Wyoming 6.5 -160 6 Under