Spread picks for every game in 2018’s college football Week 8

This week’s spotlight team: Michigan. Elsewhere, we have tons of tight point spreads that could go either way.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Oct 18, 2018, 8:15am EDT

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

In last week’s picks post, I deemed Week 7 the week we would begin to learn about Georgia. Now comes the week we begin to learn about Michigan. The Wolverines have played like a top-five team since they left South Bend with a Week 1 loss, but Jim Harbaugh’s record against rivals has defined his simultaneously impressive and disappointing tenure. And here come the rivals.

While Harbaugh is technically 1-0 in East Lansing as Michigan head coach — both of his losses to the Spartans have come in Ann Arbor — the line for this game (hovering somewhere around Michigan -7.5) has to make you nervous, doesn’t it? Michigan State lives to cover against (and usually beat) its supposedly superior competition in the Big Ten East, and Michigan lives to disappoint against Michigan State.

Winning’s all that matters, but if Michigan indeed covers, that could be a sign that this UM team really, truly has things figured out and can throw a scare into Ohio State. Or, you know, it’s the same old, same old. We’ll see.

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here.

See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. (At most books, there is no listed spread for FCS games.) When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

Gotta say, this week’s lines are terrifying if you’re actually looking to make money. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many games with lines and projections so much in agreement. Wazzu (-3) by 3.1 over Oregon? Ohio (-16.5) by 16.51? Are you kidding me?

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

Weeknight games

Utah v Stanford — Stanford’s Cameron Scarlett

Arkansas State 36, Georgia State (+14) 23 (Oct. 18, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Boise State 40, Colorado State (+23.5) 19 (Oct. 19, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Stanford 31, Arizona State (+2.5) 29 (Oct. 18, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
UNLV (+10) 29, Air Force 29 (Oct. 19, 10 p.m. ET, CBSSN) (actual projected score: UNLV 28.7, Air Force 28.6)

Stanford is unranked and has lost two games in a row, but the Cardinal still have a tie-breaker edge over Oregon and get Washington and Washington State in the coming weeks. The Pac-12 North title still goes through Palo Alto ... unless the Cardinal lose to Herm Edwards and company.

Ranked vs. ranked

Oregon State v Washington State — Washington State fans

No. 3 Clemson 35, No. 16 NC State (+17) 21 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 5 LSU 26, No. 22 Mississippi State (+7) 24 (Oct. 20, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 6 Michigan (-7.5) 29, No. 24 Michigan State 20 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 25 Washington State (-3) 36, No. 12 Oregon 33 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox) (Actual projected score: Wazzu 35.8, Oregon 32.7)

With GameDay in town, it’s going to be a day-long party in Pullman. The game could be just as fun, and it almost has the spotlight to itself in the evening. Assuming Stanford doesn’t muck everything up, the Wazzu-Oregon winner could be your Pac-12 North favorite.

Other ranked teams in action

Missouri v Alabama — Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa

No. 1 Alabama 45, Tennessee (+29) 21 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 2 Ohio State 39, Purdue (+13.5) 29 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 9 Oklahoma (-8.5) 37, TCU 25 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 10 UCF (-21.5) 40, East Carolina 14 (Oct. 20, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 14 Kentucky (-11.5) 33, Vanderbilt 17 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
No. 15 Washington 35, Colorado (+15.5) 20 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 18 Penn State 35, Indiana (+15) 20 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) (Actual projected score: PSU 34.6, IU 20.2)
No. 19 Iowa (-9.5) 31, Maryland 21 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Temple 25, No. 20 Cincinnati (+3) 24 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
No. 21 USF (-34) 51, Connecticut 17 (Oct. 20, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN) (Actual projected score: USF 51.5, UConn 17.0)
No. 23 Wisconsin 46, Illinois (+25) 21 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, FS1) (Actual projected score: UW 45.8, Illinois 21.4)

Tua Tagovailoa has been upgraded to probable against Tennessee with his sprained knee. That probably means a lot more for betting purposes than it does for “Who will win?” purposes.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Nebraska v Northwestern — Nebraska’s Scott Frost

Auburn 31, Ole Miss (+4) 30 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
California (-7) 32, Oregon State 23 (Oct. 20, 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12)
Duke 29, Virginia (+7) 24 (Oct. 20, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Florida State 28, Wake Forest (+10.5) 23 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Minnesota (+3.5) 27, Nebraska 25 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Northwestern 31, Rutgers (+20) 18 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, BTN)
Syracuse 32, North Carolina (+9.5) 23 (Oct. 20, 12:20 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Texas Tech (-18.5) 40, Kansas 21 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
UCLA 31, Arizona (+8) 26 (Oct. 20, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Utah 27, USC (+7) 23 (Oct. 20, 8 p.m. ET, Pac-12)

Scott Frost’s Nebraska Cornhuskers have had to work pretty hard to remain winless. S&P+ looks at NU as basically a 3-3 team after statistically unlikely losses to Colorado, Troy, and especially Northwestern. They’ll get a win next week against Bethune-Cookman for sure, but they’re favored against visiting Minnesota as well. S&P+ is higher than you might think on NU ... but still has the Gophers winning this one.

FBS vs. FBS

NCAA Football: Texas El Paso at Alabama-Birmingham — UAB’s Andre Wilson

Akron 27, Kent State (+5) 27 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Appalachian State 47, UL-Lafayette (+25.5) 23 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Arkansas 31, Tulsa (+7) 25 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, SECN)
Army 30, Miami (Ohio) (+7.5) 29 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Buffalo (-1) 35, Toledo 30 (Oct. 20, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Eastern Michigan (-3) 32, Ball State 24 (Oct. 20, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Florida International 39, Rice (+24) 19 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Fresno State (-13) 36, New Mexico 21 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Georgia Southern (-11) 34, New Mexico State 23 (Oct. 20, 6 p.m. ET, AggieVision) (Actual projected score: GS 34.1, NMSU 22.9)
Hawaii 33, Nevada (+3) 33 (Oct. 20, 11:59 p.m. ET, Stadium) (Actual projected score: UH 33.1, UNR 32.9)
Houston (-12) 41, Navy 26 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Louisiana Tech 37, UTEP (+23.5) 17 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Marshall (+3) 31, Florida Atlantic 28 (Oct. 20, 2:30 p.m. ET, Facebook)
Massachusetts 39, Coastal Carolina (+3) 37 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ELVN)
Middle Tennessee 32, Charlotte (+16.5) 20 (Oct. 20, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Missouri 34, Memphis (+10) 34 (Oct. 20, 4 p.m. ET, SECN) (Actual projected score: Mizzou 34.3, Memphis 33.9)
North Texas (+1.5) 27, UAB 27 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, beIN) (Actual projected score: UNT 26.8, UAB 26.7)
Ohio (-16.5) 48, Bowling Green 32 (Oct. 20, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN3) (Actual projected score: Ohio 48.39, BGSU 31.88)
San Diego State 35, San Jose State (+28) 10 (Oct. 20, 10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Southern Miss (-17.5) 31, UTSA 13 (Oct. 20, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Tulane (-7) 32, SMU 23 (Oct. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
UL-Monroe 29, Texas State (+10.5) 27 (Oct. 20, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Utah State (-15.5) 37, Wyoming 20 (Oct. 20, 2:30 p.m. ET, MWC Video)
Western Kentucky 31, Old Dominion (+5) 28 (Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Western Michigan (-4) 30, Central Michigan 23 (Oct. 20, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

If you can find beIN on your cable listings, tune in to North Texas-UAB during Oregon-Wazzu or Ohio State-Purdue commercial breaks. It could be a doozy.

FBS vs. FCS

NCAA Football: Liberty at Army — Liberty’s B.J. Farrow

Liberty 25, Idaho State 9 (Oct. 20, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Following last week’s upset win over Troy, Liberty is 3-3, and the Flames’ odds of reaching bowl eligibility are up to 76 percent. Idaho State’s not quite a gimme, though — the Bengals are 4-2 and a solid 135th in the Sagarin rankings, just six spots behind Liberty.

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)