The top three teams in the preseason AP poll were Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. After five weeks, they are No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4. Ohio State (preseason No. 5) is third. Oklahoma is still No. 7. Preseason No. 9 Auburn is No. 8.

Aside from LSU’s rise from 25th to fifth and Wisconsin’s upset loss to BYU, not a lot has changed near the top of the college football pecking order yet.

Can rivalry games begin to change that? LSU heads to Gainesville, where the Tigers are a three-point favorite over Florida (and, per S&P+, an underdog). Oklahoma is off to Dallas to face Tom Herman’s Texas — a team that is typically underwhelming as a favorite and dynamite as a dog. (And yeah, they’re eight-point dogs.)

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. (At most books, there is no listed spread for FCS games.) When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

First, from the weeknight games

S&P+ is 4-1 against the spread so far this week. This post was originally published on Thursday.

• Houston 38, Tulsa (+18) 22 (Win)
• Troy (-16) 41, Georgia State 24 (Win)
• Georgia Tech (-4.5) 32, Louisville 26 (Win)
• Marshall (-6) 33, Middle Tennessee 19 (Loss)
• Utah State (+2.5) 32, BYU 24 (Win)

Ranked vs. ranked

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

• No. 7 Oklahoma (-8) 37, No. 19 Texas 25 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, Fox)
• No. 22 Florida (+3) 27, No. 5 LSU 25 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
• No. 6 Notre Dame (-6.5) 32, No. 24 Virginia Tech 24 (Oct. 06, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)

The last four Florida-LSU games have all been decided by a touchdown or less. No reason to think this year will be any different.

Other ranked teams in action

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

• No. 1 Alabama 42, Arkansas (+35) 14 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 2 Georgia 43, Vanderbilt (+26.5) 17 (Oct. 06, 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
• No. 3 Ohio State 39, Indiana (+25.5) 18 (Oct. 06, 4 p.m. ET, Fox)
• No. 4 Clemson (-18) 42, Wake Forest 18 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 8 Auburn 23, Mississippi State (+3.5) 22 (Oct. 06, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
• No. 9 West Virginia 43, Kansas (+29) 16 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
• No. 10 Washington (-21) 38, UCLA 13 (Oct. 06, 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
• No. 12 UCF (-24) 45, SMU 17 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
• No. 13 Kentucky (+5.5) 26, Texas A&M 26 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN) (actual projected score: UK 26.1, A&M 26.05)
• No. 14 Stanford 26, Utah (+5) 21 (Oct. 06, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) (actual projected score: Stanford 25.6, Utah 20.7)
• No. 15 Michigan (-17) 36, Maryland 16 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
• No. 16 Wisconsin (-18.5) 41, Nebraska 22 (Oct. 06, 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
• No. 17 Miami (-14) 34, Florida State 17 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
• No. 20 Michigan State (-11) 32, Northwestern 18 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, FS1)
• No. 21 Colorado (-3) 33, Arizona State 27 (Oct. 06, 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12)
• No. 23 NC State (-5) 32, Boston College 24 (Oct. 06, 12:30 p.m. ET, ACCN)
• No. 25 Oklahoma State (-10) 35, Iowa State 22 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Kentucky kept South Carolina at arm’s length last Saturday night. Now comes a stiffer test in College Station.

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

• Arizona (+2.5) 26, California 25 (Oct. 06, 10 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Baylor (-4.5) 37, Kansas State 23 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Illinois 28, Rutgers (+5) 26 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, BTN)
• Iowa 22, Minnesota (+7) 17 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
• South Carolina (-1) 32, Missouri 31 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, SECN) (actual projected score: SC 31.9, Mizzou 30.8)
• Syracuse (-4) 34, Pittsburgh 27 (Oct. 06, 12:20 p.m. ET, ACCN)
• Washington State (-17) 42, Oregon State 24 (Oct. 06, 9 p.m. ET, Pac-12)

Yes, Illinois-Rutgers is technically a P5-vs-P5 game.

FBS vs. FBS

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

• Boise State 34, San Diego State (+14) 21 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
• Buffalo (-7.5) 29, Central Michigan 15 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
• Cincinnati (-7.5) 32, Tulane 23 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
• Colorado State 31, San Jose State (+2.5) 30 (Oct. 06, 10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
• Florida Atlantic 38, Old Dominion (+14) 27 (Oct. 06, 5 p.m. ET, Stadium)
• Fresno State (-12.5) 37, Nevada 22 (Oct. 06, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
• Georgia Southern 39, South Alabama (+13.5) 29 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
• Liberty (-4.5) 31, New Mexico State 26 (Oct. 06, 8 p.m. ET, AggieVision)
• Memphis (-35) 56, Connecticut 20 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
• Miami (Ohio) (+3.5) 26, Akron 23 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
• Navy (-3) 38, Air Force 28 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
• North Texas (-27) 42, UTEP 9 (Oct. 06, 7:30 p.m. ET, beIN)
• Northern Illinois 22, Ball State (+3) 21 (Oct. 06, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
• Ohio 42, Kent State (+13.5) 33 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
• Ole Miss (-22.5) 50, UL-Monroe 26 (Oct. 06, 4 p.m. ET, SECN)
• Temple (-11.5) 30, East Carolina 15 (Oct. 06, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNN)
• Toledo (-20.5) 53, Bowling Green 26 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
• UAB (+9.5) 31, Louisiana Tech 30 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, Stadium)
• UL-Lafayette 31, Texas State (+3.5) 29 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
• UNLV 37, New Mexico (+9.5) 31 (Oct. 06, 4 p.m. ET, MWC Video)
• USF (-14.5) 42, Massachusetts 24 (Oct. 06, 3:30 p.m. ET, ELVN)
• UTSA (+2.5) 30, Rice 29 (Oct. 06, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
• Western Michigan 33, Eastern Michigan (+4.5) 30 (Oct. 06, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
• Wyoming (+3) 34, Hawaii 32 (Oct. 06, 11:59 p.m. ET, Stadium)

The MWC’s most consistently high-quality programs kick off mid-day in Boise. BSU needs a win to keep pace with UCF and the other primary contenders for the Group of Five’s NY6 bowl bid.

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)