All wagers are at -110 odds and for one unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached.
Overall Season record: +$2471 | ROI: 5.4%
Against the spread: 196-160-9 | 55.1% ATS (+$1981) | ROI: 5.1%
Futures: +$490 | ROI 7.0%
Beat closing line: Yes 73% | Even 10% | No 17%
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week, so most of my plays are made early in the week. The lines listed below are subject to change during the week.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250 to 500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.
All season win totals wagers are for regular season games only (no conference title games, no bowls).
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made. As the season goes on, you’ll be able to find older picks at the bottom of this page.
Rationale for the picks is provided in my weekly Sunday Twitch show, a replay of which will also be available here or below.
Bowl Games
My strategy of wagering early to capture value does not pair well with betting bowl games because the circumstances change leading up to the bowl with players electing to sit out, coaches changing jobs, etc. I do play the bowls in live and halftime wagering options, so follow Twitter.com/BudElliott3 to stay up to date.
2019 futures picks
+$490 | ROI 7.0%
- Win total matchup: Louisville +3.5 v. Kentucky (-125)
- Texas U9.5 wins (-145)
- Troy O6.5 (-210)
- Win total matchup: Ole Miss +3.5 v. Mississippi State (-125)
- USF O6.5 wins (+102)
- UCF U10 wins (-120)
- Texas at Iowa State +1
- Navy +20 at Notre Dame
- Texas at Baylor +1.5
- Georgia to win SEC East (-200)
- North Carolina U4.5 wins (+145)
- UTEP U3 wins (+100)
- Win total matchup: Stanford -0.5 v. Cal (-130)
- Win total matchup: Minnesota +1 v. Wisconsin
- Penn State to win the Big Ten (+2500)
- Win total matchup: Alabama -4.5 wins v. Tennessee (+110)
- Florida U9 wins (-130)
- Notre Dame U9.5 wins (-130)
- Kentucky U6.5 wins (+135)
- Ohio State to win the Big Ten (-375): To win 6 units (hedging PSU +2500 for B10)
- Blue-Chip Ratio teams (except USC) to win the national title (-2000): A brief explanation here. BetOnline put up odds on one of the Blue Chip Ratio teams (except USC, for an unknown reason) winning the national title, as it has done several times in the past. -2000 is obviously a huge outlay, but I think the true price should be closer to -5000, so it’s a value.
- Clemson to make CFB Playoff -(400)
Pool Picks
Many have asked for my picks for their college pick’em pools. I am basing these on Office Football Pools, which was the most requested site by readers. I am only showing my picks on games in which my numbers show value against the provided spread. If I don’t list a game, it is safe to say I do not have an opinion on it, so flip a coin. This record will not be tracked and these are not games I am actually wagering. These are intended to help those in a pinch who need to fill out their pools and don’t have much time to do so in a given week.
CHARLOTTE 49ERS (7-5) +6.5
KENT STATE (6-6) +7.5
SAN DIEGO ST. (9-3) -3.5
Liberty (7-5) +4.5
FLORIDA ATL. (10-3) +3.5
FIU (6-6) +2.5
#18 Boise St. (12-1) +3.5
#20 Appalachian State (12-1) -16.5
UCF (9-3) -17.5
BYU (7-5) -1.5
Louisiana Tech (9-3) +6.5
EASTERN MICH (6-6) +11.5
North Carolina (6-6) -4.5
WAKE FOREST (8-4) +4.5
TEXAS A&M (7-5) -6.5
#22 USC (8-4) +2.5
#24 Air Force (10-2) -2.5
IOWA ST. (7-5) +3.5
#13 PENN ST. (10-2) -6.5
#1 LSU (13-0) -13.5
#2 OHIO ST. (13-0) +2.5
WESTERN MICH (7-5) +3.5
Mississippi St. (6-6) -3.5
CALIFORNIA (7-5) -6.5
#6 FLORIDA (10-2) -14.5
Virginia Tech (8-4) -2.5
ARIZONA ST. (7-5) -3.5
#21 Navy (10-2) -2.5
GEORGIA ST. (7-5) +7.5
TEXAS (7-5) +7.5
#17 Michigan (9-3) +7.5
#16 Minnesota (10-2) +7.5
#11 WISCONSIN (10-3) -2.5
#8 BAYLOR (11-2) +7.5
#23 CINCINNATI (10-3) -6.5
TENNESSEE (7-5) -1.5
Ohio (6-6) -7.5
Southern Miss (7-5) +7.5
UL Lafayette (10-3) -13.5
Previously
Bud’s 2019 picks
Wager | W | L | P | Beat Close? |
---|---|---|
Wager | W | L | P | Beat Close? |
Florida v. Miami U50.5 | W | Yes |
Arizona v. Hawaii O70 | W | Even |
Arizona at Hawaii +11 | W | Yes |
Utah -5 at BYU | W | Even |
Duke v. Alabama U60.5 | W | Yes |
Oregon v. Auburn U58.5 | W | Yes |
Virginia Tech -2 at BC (-120) | L | Yes |
East Carolina +18 at NC State | L | Yes |
Colorado v. Colorado State U65 | L | Yes |
Oregon v. Auburn -3 | W | Yes |
Texas State +33.5 at Texas A&M | L | No |
Louisiana Tech +21 at Texas | L | Yes |
FIU +3 at Tulane | L | Even |
Tulsa at Michigan State -22.5 | L | Yes |
Clemson -23.5 1H (-107) | W | Yes |
Houston at Oklahoma U82.5 | W | Yes |
Texas A&M at Clemson -20 | L | No |
LSU -3.5 at Texas | W | Yes |
UAB at Akron +11 | P | Yes |
Old Dominion at VT -26 | L | Yes |
Vanderbilt +9 at Purdue | L | Yes |
West Virginia at Missouri -10.5 | W | Yes |
Bowling Green +24 at Kansas State | L | No |
Nebraska -7 (+100) at Colorado | L | No |
Charlotte at App State -20.5 | L | Yes |
Wyoming at Texas State +8.5 | L | Yes |
BYU at Tennessee -2 | L | Yes |
Coastal Carolina +10.5 at Kansas | W | Yes |
Buffalo at Penn State -21 | W | Yes |
UTEP at Texas Tech -33 | W | Yes |
Cal at Washington -11 | L | Yes |
Tulane at Auburn -18.5 | L | No |
La Monroe at FSU -21 | L | Yes |
Nevada +24.5 at Oregon | L | Yes |
Arkansas at Ole Miss -6 | W | No |
Air Force at Colorado -1.5 | L | Yes |
Alabama at South Carolina +26 | W | Even |
Arkansas State +31.5 at Georgia | L | No |
Buffalo at Liberty +6.5 | W | Yes |
Charlotte Over 43 points (team total) | W | Even |
Colorado State +13.5 at Arkansas | L | Yes |
Duke at Middle Tennessee +7 (-115) | L | Yes |
East Carolina +9 at Navy | L | Yes |
Eastern Michigan at Illinois Over 55 | W | Yes |
EMU +11.5 at Illinois | W | Yes |
Florida State at Virginia -7 | P | Even |
Georgia State +12 at Western Michigan | L | Yes |
Hawaii +23 at Washington | L | Yes |
Iowa +1 at Iowa State | W | Yes |
Kansas at Boston College -17 | L | Yes |
LA Tech -7 at Bowling green | W | Yes |
Marshall Under 27 points (team total) | L | Yes |
Miami (Ohio) +16.5 at Cincinnati | L | No |
Mississippi State Over 29 points (team total) | L | Even |
NC State -6.5 at West Virginia | L | Yes |
New Mexico State Under 17.5 points (team total) | W | Yes |
NIU +14 at Nebraska | L | Even |
Northwestern Under 35 points (team total) | W | Even |
Oklahoma -17 at UCLA | W | Yes |
Oklahoma at UCLA +24 | L | Yes |
Oklahoma State -12 at Tulsa | W | Yes |
Oklahoma State Over 39 points (team total) | W | Even |
Pitt at Penn State -16.5 | L | Yes |
Southern Miss +4 at Troy | W | Yes |
Stanford at UCF -7 | W | Yes |
TCU +1.5 at Purdue | W | Yes |
Texas Tech -3 at Arizona | L | No |
UNC at Wake Forest -3.5 (-105) | W | No |
UNC at Wake Forest Over 64 | L | Yes |
USC -2 at BYU | L | Yes |
WKU vs. Louisville -7.5 (neutral site) | W | Yes |
Houston at Tulane -1 | W | Yes |
UL Lafayette +6.5 at Ohio | W | Yes |
WMU +4 at Syracuse | L | Yes |
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 | W | Yes |
Toledo -5.5 at Colorado State | W | Even |
New Mexico State at New Mexico -3 | P | Yes |
Cal PK at Ole Miss | W | No |
Georgia State at Texas State +1 | W | Yes |
LSU -19 at Vanderbilt | W | Yes |
Appalachian State +3 at UNC | W | Yes |
WVU at Kansas +7 | W | Yes |
Oregon -10 at Stanford | W | Yes |
UCF/Pitt U59.5 | L | No |
UConn/Indiana U58 | W | Yes |
Temple/Buffalo U57.5 | L | Yes |
Michigan State/Northwestern U40 | L | Yes |
Troy/Akron O52.5 | L | Yes |
Michigan/Wisconsin U51.5 | W | Yes |
Cal Ole Miss U43.5 | L | Yes |
AppSt/UNC O56.5 | W | Yes |
S.Ala/UAB U49.5 | W | Yes |
Michigan State -5.5 at Northwestern | W | Yes |
Washington -6 at BYU | W | Yes |
Auburn +4 at Texas A&M | W | Yes |
Oklahoma State +7.5 (-115) at Texas | W | Yes |
South Alabama +13 at UAB | L | Yes |
Baylor -24.5 at Rice | L | Yes |
Oregon at Stanford Under 58.5 | W | Yes |
San Jose State at Arkansas Under 61.5 | W | Even |
Arizona State +5 (-115) at Cal | W | Yes |
Arkansas State/Troy O60.5 | W | No |
Arkansas/Texas A&M U55 | L | No |
Buffalo +5 at Miami (Ohio) | L | Yes |
Cincinnati at Marshall +4 (-111) | L | Even |
Coastal Carolina +17.5 (-115) at Appalachian State | L | Yes |
Duke +6.5 at Virginia Tech | W | Yes |
FAU +2.5 at Charlotte | W | Yes |
Florida State Over 33 (team total) | L | Yes |
Fresno -17 (-105) at New Mexico State | L | Yes |
Georgia Tech/Temple U53 | W | Yes |
Hawaii +2.5 at Nevada | W | Yes |
Houston at North Texas +3 | L | Yes |
Iowa State +3.5 at Baylor | W | Yes |
Kansas State +7.5 at Oklahoma State | L | Yes |
Middle Tennessee/Iowa O49.5 | W | Yes |
Minnesota -1 at Purdue | W | Yes |
New Mexico at Liberty -9 | L | No |
Northwestern at Wisconsin -22 | L | Yes |
Ohio State -15 at Nebraska | W | Yes |
Ole Miss +35 at Alabama | W | No |
Penn State -6.5 (-115) at Maryland | W | Even |
San Jose State +24 at Air Force | W | Yes |
SMU -6.5 at South Florida | W | Yes |
Stanford at Oregon State +5.5 | W | Yes |
Texas Tech/Oklahoma U70.5 | L | Yes |
UAB +4.5 at WKU | L | Yes |
UAB/WKU U49.5 | W | Yes |
UCLA/Arizona O69 | L | No |
UL-Lafayette -3.5 at Georgia Southern | W | No |
UNLV at Wyoming -7 | W | Yes |
Wake Forest -3 at Boston College | P | Yes |
Arizona +4.5 at Colorado | W | Yes |
Arkansas State -5 at Georgia State | L | Yes |
Ball State +9 at NIU | W | Yes |
Baylor +5.5 (-115) at Kansas State | W | Yes |
Baylor/Kansas State U54 | W | Yes |
Cal at Oregon -14 | L | Yes |
Cal/Oregon U47 | W | Yes |
Illinois +14.5 at Minnesota | L | Yes |
Illinois/Minnesota O55.5 | W | Yes |
Iowa +7 at Michigan | P | Yes |
Liberty -4.5 at New Mexico State | W | No |
Liberty/NMSU U63 | W | No |
Marshall at MTSU +8.5 | W | Yes |
Marshall/Middle Tennessee O56.5 | L | No |
Memphis -14.5 at ULM | W | Yes |
Ohio at Buffalo +4 | W | Yes |
Oklahoma State/Texas Tech U68 | L | Yes |
Purdue at Penn State -17 | W | Yes |
Purdue/Penn State O58.5 | L | No |
San Diego State -6 (-105) at Colorado State | W | Even |
Tulane +1 at Army | W | Yes |
Tulane/Army O45.5 | W | No |
USF at UConn +14.5 | L | Yes |
Utah State +28 at LSU | L | Yes |
Virginia Tech at Miami -8.5 | L | Yes |
Washington -13 (-115) at Stanford | L | No |
Western Kentucky PK at Old Dominion | W | Yes |
WMU +4.5 at Toledo | L | Yes |
San Jose State +7.5 at Nevada | W | Yes |
Charlotte at FIU -2 | W | Yes |
Middle Tennessee at FAU -9 (-115) | W | Yes |
Iowa State -7.5 at West Virginia | W | Yes |
BYU at USF +6.5 | W | Yes |
Colorado State at New Mexico +7 | L | Yes |
Louisville +9 at Wake Forest | W | Yes |
Maryland -2 at Purdue | L | Yes |
North Texas +5 at Southern Miss | L | Yes |
Nebraska at Minnesota -6.5 | W | Yes |
Penn State -2.5 at Iowa | W | Yes |
Alabama at Texas A&M +18 | L | Yes |
Oklahoma -10 v. Texas | L | Yes |
Florida +14 at LSU | P | Even |
Cincinnati at Houston +7.5 | L | No |
ULM at Texas State -1 | L | No |
Colorado State/New Mexico U70 | W | No |
BYU/USF U53.5 | W | No |
FSu at Clemson -16 (1H) | W | No |
Memphis/Temple U52.5 | L | No |
Texas Tech/Baylor U58 | L | No |
Army/WKU O41.5 | L | No |
Ohio State at Northwestern Team Total U6 (-129) 1H | W | Yes |
Auburn at Arkansas Team Total Under 7.5 (-105) 1H | W | Yes |
Duke Team Total Under 10 (-115) 1H at Virginia | W | Even |
East Carolina/UCF Under 62 | L | No |
Indiana at Maryland Under 57.5 | L | No |
Tennessee/Alabama Under 61.5 | W | No |
NC State at Boston College Over 53.5 | W | No |
Army at Georgia State Over 56 | L | No |
Florida State at Wake Forest Over 67.5 | L | Yes |
NIU at Miami (OH) Over 47.5 | W | Yes |
Old Dominion/UAB Under 43 | L | Yes |
Purdue/Iowa Over 47 | L | Yes |
Pitt/Syracuse Under 54 | W | Yes |
WVU/Oklahoma Under 65 | L | Yes |
Middle Tennessee State at North Texas Over 57.5 | W | Yes |
Nevada/Utah State Under 63 | W | Yes |
UNC/VT Over 54.5 | W | Yes |
Oregon/Washington Under 56 | L | Yes |
FSU +4 at Wake Forest | W | Yes |
Boise State -2.5 at BYU | L | Yes |
Missouri -17.5 (-120) at Vanderbilt | L | Yes |
Indiana -2.5 at Maryland | W | Yes |
Air Force -1 at Hawaii | W | Yes |
San Diego State -6.5 (-115) at San Jose State | W | Yes |
Buffalo at Akron +18 | L | Yes |
UTEP at FIU -20.5 | L | Yes |
Northern Illinois at Miami (Ohio) +3 (-105) | W | Yes |
Oregon at Washington +3 (-115) | L | Even |
Oregon State +10.5 (-115) at Cal | W | Even |
Coastal Carolina +6.5 at Georgia Southern | W | No |
UNC at Virginia Tech +3.5 (-105) | W | No |
Georgia Tech at Miami -19.5 | L | No |
Baylor +4 at Oklahoma State | W | No |
SMU at Houston +14 (-105) | W | Yes |
Oklahoma at Kansas State +24 | W | Yes |
Iowa -8.5 at Northwestern | W | Yes |
App State -24 (-115) at South Alabama | W | Even |
USC at Colorado Over 59.5 | W | Yes |
Miami +3 at Pitt | W | No |
Miami at Pitt Under 46 | W | Yes |
Ohio +2.5 at Ball State | W | Even |
Indiana -2 at Nebraska | W | No |
Tulane at Navy -2.5 (-115) | W | Yes |
Auburn +12.5 at LSU | W | Yes |
Arizona State at UCLA +3 (+105) | W | Yes |
Arkansas at Alabama Under 60 | W | Yes |
Utah State at Air Force -2.5 | W | Yes |
Washington State +15.5 at Oregon | W | Yes |
Eastern Michigan +3 (-115) at Toledo | P | Yes |
San Jose State at Army -9 | L | Yes |
Illinois at Purdue Over 57.5 | L | No |
Liberty -4 at Rutgers | L | Yes |
South Carolina at Tennessee Under 21 Team Total (-115) | L | Even |
Central Michigan +4.5 at Buffalo | L | Yes |
Syracuse +10.5 at Florida State | L | Even |
Akron +25.5 at NIU | L | Yes |
Uconn at UMass +10.5 | L | Yes |
FIU -2.5 at Middle Tennessee State | L | No |
Penn State at Michigan State Over 43 | L | No |
Oklahoma State at Iowa State -7 | L | Yes |
Texas Tech -4 (-105) at Kansas | L | Yes |
UCF at Temple Under 62.5 | L | Yes |
Notre Dame +4 at Michigan | L | Yes |
Texas State +13 at Arkansas State | L | Yes |
Memphis -8.5 at Tulsa | L | Yes |
San Diego State -10 (-115) at UNLV | L | Yes |
Middle Tennessee at Charlotte Over 60 | L | Yes |
BYU +8 (-125) at Utah State | W | Yes |
Michigan -16.5 at Maryland | W | Yes |
Ole Miss at Auburn -16 | L | Yes |
Buffalo at EMU Over 47.5 | W | Yes |
Miami +6.5 at Florida State | W | Yes |
Pitt at Georgia Tech Under 47 | W | No |
SMU at Memphis -3 | W | Yes |
Utah -1 at Washington | W | Yes |
Arkansas State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe | W | No |
Army at Air Force Over 45 | L | Even |
Boston College +4 at Syracuse | W | Yes |
Marshall -10 at Rice | W | Yes |
Virginia +3 (-115) at North Carolina | W | Yes |
Northwestern at Indiana -12.5 | W | Yes |
KSU at Kansas Over 56 | L | No |
SMU/Memphis Under 68.5 | L | Yes |
Florida State at BC +2 (-115) | L | Yes |
UCF -12.5 at Tulsa | L | Yes |
Utah State at Fresno State -2 | L | Yes |
Liberty +20.5 at BYU | W | Yes |
East Carolina +24.5 at SMU | W | Yes |
Tennessee +3.5 at Kentucky | W | Yes |
FSU at BC Over 63 | W | Yes |
Wake Forest -1 at Virginia Tech | L | Yes |
Georgia State -1.5 at Louisiana Monroe | L | Yes |
Baylor -1 at TCU | W | Yes |
Texas Tech -2 at West Virginia | W | Yes |
UAB +8.5 at Southern Miss | L | Yes |
UTSA at Old Dominion -2.5 (-105) | L | Yes |
Louisville at Miami -6 (-105) | W | Yes |
Washington State -8.5 at Cal | L | Yes |
Penn State -6.5 at Minnesota | L | Even |
South Alabama at Texas State -7.5 | L | No |
Kansas State +6 at Texas | W | No |
Buffalo at kent State +3 | W | No |
UNC +4.5 at Pitt | L | Yes |
UMass +40 at Northwestern | W | Yes |
UTEP +20.5 (-115) at UAB | L | Yes |
Wisconsin -13 at Nebraska | W | Yes |
Kansas at Oklahoma State -17 | W | Yes |
Michigan State at Michigan -12 | W | Yes |
Memphis -9 at Houston | W | Yes |
Stanford at Washington State -10 | W | Yes |
Virginia Tech -5.5 at Georgia Tech | W | Yes |
West Virginia at Kansas State -12 | L | Yes |
Wyoming at Utah State -3 | W | Yes |
UL-Lafayette -24 at South Alabama | L | Yes |
Air Force -10 at Colorado | W | Yes |
Appalachian State -11 at Georgia State | W | Yes |
Cincinnati -9.5 at USF | L | Yes |
Louisville at NC State +4 | L | Even |
USC -4 at Cal | W | Even |
Minnesota -7 at Northwestern | W | Yes |
Oklahoma State at West Virginia Under 61 (-114) | W | Yes |
Duke/Wake Forest Under 54.5 | L | Yes |
UCLA at USC -10 | W | Yes |
Eastern Michigan +7 at NIU | W | Yes |
Illinois at Iowa -12 | L | Yes |
Penn State/Ohio State Over 55 (-118) | L | Yes |
Kansas at Iowa State -23 | L | Yes |
Colorado State +7.5 at Wyoming | L | Yes |
Temple/Cincinnati Under 48 | W | Yes |
FAU -18.5 at UTSA | W | Yes |
SDSU +3 at Hawaii | P | Yes |
Texas A&M +15.5 at Georgia | W | Yes |
UCF -4.5 at Tulane | L | Yes |
Miami -18.5 v. FIU (neutral site) | L | Yes |
Troy +15 at UL Lafayette | L | Yes |
Syracuse +10 at Louisville | L | Yes |
NC State PK at Georgia Tech | L | Yes |
Pitt at Virginia Tech -2 | W | Yes |
North Texas -5 at Rice | L | Yes |
Ball State -2 at Kent State | L | Yes |
Washington -13.5 at Colorado | L | Yes |
Memphis -14 (-115) at USF | W | Yes |
Coastal Carolina +6 at ULM | W | Even |
SJSU at UNLV +7 | W | Even |
Penn State +19 at Ohio State | W | No |
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State -2 | W | No |
ECU at UConn +14.5 | W | No |
Cal at Stanford -1.5 | L | No |
Boise State/Utah State Under 52 | L | No |
Houston +4.5 at Tulsa | W | No |
North Carolina -6.5 at NC State | W | Yes |
Miami -4.5 at Duke | L | Yes |
Western Michigan -6 at NIU | L | Yes |
Notre Dame -14.5 at Stanford | W | Yes |
New Mexico State at Liberty -13 | W | Yes |
Indiana -5 at Purdue | L | Yes |
UTSA at Louisiana Tech -20 | L | Yes |
West Virginia at TCU -12.5 | L | Yes |
Tulane +4.5 at SMU | L | Yes |
Iowa -3 at Nebraska | P | Yes |
Army +3 at Hawaii | L | Yes |
Miami (Ohio) at Ball State -3 (-105) | W | Yes |
Boston College +8.5 at Pitt | W | Even |
Baylor -14 at Kansas | W | Even |
Alabama at Auburn +3.5 | W | Even |
Wisconsin at Minnesota +3.5 | L | Even |
Arizona at Arizona State -12.5 | L | Even |
USF at UCF -24.5 | W | No |
Wake Forest at Syracuse +6 | W | No |
Fresno State +2 at San Jose State | W | No |
Arkansas State -11 at South Alabama | L | No |
Florida State at Florida -18 | W | No |
Virginia Tech at Virginia PK | W | No |
Ole Miss at Mississippi State PK | W | No |
Texas Tech at Texas -10.5 | W | No |
Georgia at LSU Under 28 (-115) 1H | W | Even |
LSU -3.5 (-105) v. Georgia | W | Yes |
Miami (Ohio) at Central Michigan -2.5 | L | Yes |
Baylor +10 v. Oklahoma | W | Yes |
UL Lafayette +6.5 at Appalachian State | L | Yes |
Cincinnati at Memphis -10.5 | L | No |
Utah -3 (-115) v. Oregon | L | Yes |
UAB at FAU -6.5 | W | Yes |