The College Football Playoff starts with two semifinals on New Year’s Eve: Notre Dame and Clemson in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama and Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
Vegas sees the games similarly and differently. While it expects one to be a relatively low-scoring slog between two great defenses and the other a high-scoring shootout between the two best offenses in the sport, it doesn’t think either game will be that close.
For your quick reference, here’s the betting landscape for these games.
The point spreads
- Orange Bowl: Alabama -14
- Cotton Bowl: Clemson -12.5
These spreads both vary slightly across sportsbooks. You can see a full array at Odds Shark, but those are the most common numbers for the two games.
What the computers say
- S&P+ projects a 7-point margin for Alabama and an 8-point margin for Clemson. But given how the teams have performed against expectations this year, S&P+ creator Bill Connelly sees that equating to “something in the neighborhood of Alabama by about 16 and Clemson by about 14.” S&P+ entered bowl season with a 53.2 percent win percentage against the spread this season.
- ESPN’s FPI projects a 10-point margin for Alabama and a 10-point margin for Clemson.
- Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System projects a 9-point margin for Alabama and a 5-point margin for Clemson.
The computers are consistently less bullish on the favorites than the humans. They think Oklahoma can get enough stops against Alabama to stay within two touchdowns, and they think Notre Dame can move the ball enough to do the same against Clemson.
Why the disparity? I can only speculate, but I suspect humans are more awed by Alabama’s greatness than machines are. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we like Notre Dame less than the computers do because of how bad the Irish’s schedule was perceived to be without a conference championship. In reality, Clemson had the country’s No. 76 schedule strength, per S&P+, and Notre Dame’s was No. 61, according to S&P+.
What the teams’ trends say
In the Orange Bowl:
- Alabama is 8-5 against the spread — impressive given the huge spreads Bama faced each week. The Tide covered maybe the wildest spread in history in November, when they visited then-No. 3 LSU as a 14.5-point favorite. In reality, Bama won 29-0 and could’ve won by more than that.
- Oklahoma is a paltry 5-7-1 against the spread. If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic, the Sooners are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against SEC teams, though now we’re going back to previous rosters and coaching staffs.
In the Cotton:
- Clemson is 7-6 ATS — 1-2 in its last three but 6-2 in its last eight.
- Notre Dame is 7-4-1 ATS, but 6-2-1 since Week 4.
The straight moneylines
If you don’t like spread betting, you can get these odds at BetOnline:
Orange:
- Alabama -555 (risk $555 to win $100 on a straight-up Tide win)
- Oklahoma +450 (risk $100 to win $450)
Cotton:
- Clemson -440
- Notre Dame +370
The totals
What human oddsmakers say
- Orange Bowl: 77.5
- Cotton Bowl: 55
The Orange Bowl over/under is the highest ever for a Playoff game, eclipsing the 74 for the Oregon-Florida State Rose Bowl after 2014. You could be forgiven for having sticker shock, but these are the two best offenses in college football, led by the two best quarterbacks. They could easily sling it around enough to clear 77.5 in the third quarter.
What the computers say
In the Orange, against the 77.5 total:
- S&P+ projects 73 total points.
- The Odds Shark computer projects 90 total points.
In the Cotton, against the 55 total:
- S&P+ projects 52.
- Odds Shark projects 77.
I don’t think Clemson-Notre Dame will sniff the 70s, but that’s only me.
The odds for each team to win the whole Playoff and props on the eventual Championship matchup
To win it all, via BetOnline:
- Alabama -200
- Clemson +300
- Notre Dame +800
- Oklahoma +1000
The Irish get a slightly better shot than the Sooners, mostly because of playing Not Alabama in the semifinal. If ND and OU played in the National Championship, S&P+ would have the Sooners winning by 1 or 2 points, before post-bowl adjustments.
These odds on the specific title-game matchup are via Bovada:
- Alabama over Clemson: 5/7
- Clemson over Alabama: 7/2
- Alabama over Notre Dame: 9/2
- Clemson over Oklahoma: 13/2
- Oklahoma over Clemson: 16/1
- Notre Dame over Alabama; 18/1
- Oklahoma over Notre Dame: 22/1
- Notre Dame over Oklahoma: 28/1
How some SB Nation staffers are picking the Playoff semifinals
Picker | Orange | Cotton |
---|---|---|
Picker | Orange | Cotton |
Alex Kirshner | Alabama, 49-42 | Clemson, 28-10 |
Bill Connelly | Alabama, 49-31 | Clemson, 24-9 |
Jason Kirk | Alabama, 51-38 | Clemson, 27-20 |
Richard Johnson | Alabama, 40-32 | Clemson, 31-24 |
Steven Godfrey | Alabama, 38-28 | Clemson, 34-31 |