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If EA Sports had released ‘NCAA Football 19,’ team ratings would’ve looked something like this

Which of these teams would you have started a dynasty with?

By Jason Kirk
This particular group would’ve been all 99s, of course
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There is no new college football video game released this July, but we won’t let that stop us from torturing ourselves with what might’ve been.

Every year since NCAA Football left us, I try and guesstimate how EA might’ve chosen to rate each team’s quality, if it’d released a new edition. (Also, yes, you can just download player-created 2018 rosters for NCAA 14, if you still have an older system.)

Before you yell at lil ole me for underrating your team, as if I matter in any way, here’s the rough process:

  • The baseline: Bill Connelly’s projected S&P+ ratings for overall, offense, and defense.
  • I cram that into a 60-to-99 scale, fitting EA’s traditional range for FBS teams.
  • I make a few adjustments based on big transfers (Shea Patterson pulls a few team offense rating points from Ole Miss to Michigan, for example) and general public sentiment (for example, Bill’s numbers are not excited by West Virginia, but most humans are, so I gave WVU a bump on offense to reflect the game people would want to see).
  • Though the game has a whole other metric for incorporating coach impact, I still make some tweaks there. For example, Scott Frost to Nebraska bumps up the Huskers’ offense, and new UCF HC Josh Heupel mitigates the Knights’ losses there, but Mizzou replacing Heupel with the dreaded Derek Dooley demanded a nerf.
  • And a check of the many early top 25s and top 130s made by humans, just to see if all this sort of lines up with what the public expects.

That gives us this:

What NCAA 19 team ratings might’ve looked like

Team Overall Offense Defense
Team Overall Offense Defense
Alabama 95 91 96
Ohio State 95 95 91
Clemson 94 88 98
Washington 93 89 94
Auburn 92 88 93
Georgia 92 91 91
Notre Dame 91 88 92
Penn State 91 90 89
Oklahoma 90 94 82
Michigan 90 84 95
Michigan State 90 81 96
Wisconsin 89 88 91
Miami 89 87 89
Mississippi State 88 84 91
LSU 87 83 90
USC 87 87 86
UCF 86 92 79
Florida State 85 86 86
Stanford 85 90 81
TCU 85 82 89
Oklahoma State 85 91 79
Virginia Tech 85 81 90
Oregon 84 89 83
Texas A&M 84 85 85
Ole Miss 84 91 76
Texas 84 82 88
Boise State 84 81 88
Utah 83 82 86
Missouri 83 90 78
Louisville 83 89 76
Florida 84 83 87
FAU 83 86 82
Arizona 82 90 76
South Carolina 81 83 84
Wake Forest 81 86 80
Iowa 81 79 88
NC State 81 89 78
Northwestern 81 80 86
West Virginia 84 92 78
UCLA 80 87 76
Memphis 80 89 73
Duke 80 76 86
Washington State 80 79 82
Pittsburgh 80 81 81
Fresno State 79 78 83
Iowa State 79 76 85
Texas Tech 80 84 77
Boston College 79 77 85
Toledo 79 81 80
Baylor 79 82 76
North Carolina 79 82 80
Arkansas 79 84 77
San Diego State 78 79 81
USF 78 77 81
Georgia Tech 78 81 78
Purdue 78 82 76
Nebraska 78 84 76
Houston 79 80 84
Kansas State 81 85 80
Indiana 77 76 81
Marshall 77 75 83
Appalachian State 77 76 81
Kentucky 77 76 80
California 77 78 79
Arkansas State 77 81 73
Arizona State 77 81 74
Minnesota 76 72 81
Ohio 76 79 75
NIU 76 74 81
Louisiana Tech 75 77 76
Syracuse 75 81 73
Wyoming 76 70 85
Virginia 75 70 82
SMU 75 83 69
Vanderbilt 75 75 75
BYU 75 68 84
Troy 76 76 79
Utah State 75 74 78
Maryland 76 79 76
Tennessee 77 76 82
Temple 74 73 78
Miami (Ohio) 74 73 78
Navy 77 82 76
Middle Tennessee 74 73 76
Rutgers 73 67 82
North Texas 73 81 69
Western Michigan 73 74 73
Colorado 72 75 68
Cincinnati 72 72 71
Western Kentucky 72 71 72
UAB 72 71 73
Army 71 72 72
Buffalo 71 75 68
Colorado State 71 76 67
Southern Miss 71 70 72
Eastern Michigan 71 65 78
Bowling Green 71 75 67
Tulane 70 80 63
Illinois 70 66 73
Nevada 70 74 67
New Mexico State 70 68 73
UMass 70 73 68
Kansas 69 65 72
UNLV 69 73 66
UTSA 69 63 78
Georgia Southern 69 65 75
ULM 69 80 60
Oregon State 70 73 67
Tulsa 68 76 61
South Alabama 68 67 70
Air Force 69 75 64
New Mexico 68 67 68
Georgia State 67 65 69
Old Dominion 67 62 71
Central Michigan 66 61 70
Ball State 66 65 68
Akron 66 60 72
FIU 66 68 63
Coastal Carolina 66 65 68
UL-Lafayette 65 74 60
Hawaii 65 67 63
Texas State 64 61 66
UConn 64 71 60
East Carolina 64 74 60
Charlotte 64 60 67
Kent State 64 60 68
Rice 63 64 61
San Jose State 61 64 60
Liberty 60 61 62
UTEP 61 60 64

And then a few more adjustments:

Of course, then you’d need to give 10-point boosts to popular teams like Notre Dame, Texas, and Michigan, as it often felt like EA did.

For the full EA effect, you’d also need to make the top three or four teams in each category a full 99, even though a 99 should be reserved for a true, proven, all-time elite. Does anybody expect this year’s Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State to be one of the greatest teams ever? A modern game would be wise to start out the best teams lower than 99 and make them work their way up, via in-game updates later on.

Which team would you pick for dynasty mode?

Arizona would’ve been a crazy popular pick for every mode, thanks to dual-threat QB Khalil Tate. Trick plays would’ve made Purdue’s playbook a frequent choice.

But for dynasty mode, you want to start at the bottom, albeit with one fun piece to build around. You want a school in an oddball location and no real history of winning, so you can tell your friends you turned [Random School] into a power.

UNLV would’ve checked every box, coming off its 15th losing season this century but boasting Armani Rogers, a big and speedy QB with three years of eligibility still to go, and access to Cali recruiting. And maybe you could’ve downloaded the new Raiders stadium for his senior year.

Anyway, what do you think? Sorry for reminding you there’s no game this year.

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