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Which FBS teams will lose FCS games in 2018? It’s time to draft upsets.

Someone’s going to lose to a team that’s allowed 22 fewer scholarships. Who will it be?

West Virginia v Kansas Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

This college football season, FBS teams will play FCS teams 111 times. The FBS team will always be at home, paying the FCS team to make the road trip and then roll over.

But not every FCS team will play dead. Some FBS squads, with their 85-scholarship allowance and home-field advantage, will lose to their 63-scholarship visitors.

A few staffers had a draft to pick the most likely such upsets this year. Yes, the person with the first pick chose Kansas.

Included with each are the S&P+ projection and the betting point spread, via 5Dimes.

1. Nicholls State over Kansas, Week 1
Picked by Richard Johnson

If there’s a team that looks primed to lose to an FCS opponent, it’s gotta be the Jayhawks. They’ve already done it once in David Beaty’s tenure, and they host Nicholls in Week 1, which nearly beat Georgia in 2016. Nicholls is coming off its best season ever, with much of its team returning.

S&P+ projected margin: Kansas by 16
Spread: Kansas -9.5

2. North Carolina A&T over ECU, Week 1
Picked by Alex Kirshner

Yeah, give me the team coming off an undefeated season over the one that already purchased a one-way ticket to Three and Ninesville.

S&P+ projected margin: ECU by 7
Spread: ECU -9.5

3. UC Davis over San Jose State, Week 1
Picked by Matt Brown

UC Davis was just OK last season and didn’t put up too much of a fight against San Diego State, a team far better than SJSU. But the Aggies played very strong FCS teams close, and SJSU is still totally rebuilding under second-year coach Brent Brennan.

S&P+ projected margin: SJSU by 3
Spread: UC Davis -1.5

4. Eastern Washington over Washington State, Week 3
Picked by Brian Floyd

[Editor’s note: Brian Floyd is a Washington State alum.]

S&P+ projected margin: WSU by 27.5
Spread: N/A

5. Kennesaw State over Georgia State, Week 1
Picked by Spencer Hall

S&P+ projected margin: Georgia State by 6
Spread: Kennesaw State -1

6. Eastern Kentucky over Bowling Green, Week 3
Picked by Bill Connelly

S&P+ projected margin: BGSU by 25.9
Spread: N/A

7. Fordham over Charlotte, Week 1
Picked by Morgan Moriarty

S&P+ projected margin: Charlotte by 26.8
Spread: Charlotte -15.5

8. South Dakota State over Iowa State, Week 1
Picked by Ryan Nanni

I like the Jackrabbit as a mascot, and picking a South Dakota school allows me to clumsily reheat the profile I did on the Black Hills Brawl, one of college football’s longest rivalries in terms of games played. BLOG LAW REQUIRES THIS SHAMELESS SELF PROMOTION AT ALL TIMES.

S&P+ projected margin: Iowa State by 21.8
Spread: Iowa State -14

9. Southern Utah over Oregon State, Week 2
Picked by Bud Elliott

It was S&P+’s lowest predicted margin of victory for any remaining FBS v. FCS game. I can’t name a player on either team.

S&P+ projected margin: Oregon State by 7.4
Spread: not out yet

10. Incarnate Word over New Mexico, Week 1
Picked by Steven Godfrey

S&P+ projected margin: New Mexico by 35.7
Spread: New Mexico -35.5

11. James Madison over NC State, Week 1
Picked by Caroline Darney

NC State is no pushover, but JMU is the clear No. 2 team in FCS and the Wolfpack lost their entire starting defensive line to the NFL Draft. Ryan Finley is a great QB, but State will have to be on their game against a defense that held opponents to a FCS-best 11.1 points per game. JMU scored a big upset over Virginia Tech in 2010 and a nominal one against ECU last year.

S&P+ projected margin: NC State by 24.3
Spread: NC State -14.5

12. Northern Arizona over UTEP, Week 1
Picked by Jason Kirk

Despite having to pick last, I landed the game in which a 2017 FCS playoff team is a touchdown favorite over 2017’s only winless FBS team. Thank you to my co-workers for this gift.

S&P+ projected margin: UTEP by 1.8
Spread: Northern Arizona -8

What would your first pick be?

Your reward for a correct pick will be the same as ours: immense pride.

For your quick reference, here’s a table with every FCS vs. FBS game of the season.

2018 FBS vs. FCS games

FCS team FBS team
FCS team FBS team
Prairie View A&M Rice
Duquesne UMass
Central Connecticut Ball State
Kennesaw State Georgia State
Missouri State Oklahoma State
Savannah State UAB
Southeastern Louisiana ULM
Weber State Utah
Northwestern State Texas A&M
UC Davis San Jose State
Portland State Nevada
James Madison NC State
Southern TCU
Villanova Temple
Furman Clemson
Alcorn State Georgia Tech
Howard Ohio
Albany Pitt
Austin Peay Georgia
Eastern Illinois Arkansas
UT Martin Missouri
Delaware State Buffalo
Elon USF
Fordham Charlotte
North Carolina A&T ECU
Richmond Virginia
SC State Georgia Southern
Monmouth EMU
Central Arkansas Tulsa
Grambling Louisiana
Jackson State Southern Miss
Mercer Memphis
Nicholls Kansas
Southeast Missouri Arkansas State
VMI Toledo
South Dakota Kansas State
Charleston Southern Florida
Stephen F. Austin Mississippi State
Abilene Christian Baylor
South Dakota State Iowa State
Idaho Fresno State
Incarnate Word New Mexico
Stony Brook Air Force
Towson Wake Forest
Holy Cross Boston College
Portland State Oregon
William & Mary Virginia Tech
Wagner Syracuse
Howard Kent State
Morgan State Akron
Lamar Texas Tech
Southern Illinois Ole Miss
East Tennessee State Tennessee
North Dakota Washington
Youngstown State West Virginia
Savannah State Miami
SC State UCF
EKU Marshall
UT Martin Middle Tennessee
Southern Louisiana Tech
Indiana State Louisville
Southeastern Louisiana LSU
Texas Southern Texas State
Samford FSU
Western Illinois Illinois
Alabama State Auburn
Incarnate Word North Texas
Maine WKU
Nicholls Tulane
Southern Utah Oregon State
Sacramento State San Diego State
Tennessee Tech Utah State
Prairie View A&M UNLV
Bethune-Cookman FAU
Rhode Island UConn
Murray State Kentucky
UC Davis Stanford
Lehigh Navy
Wofford Wyoming
EKU Bowling Green
New Hampshire Colorado
Idaho State Cal
Norfolk State Liberty
Campbell Coastal Carolina
Alabama A&M Cincinnati
Delaware State Western Michigan
Northern Iowa Iowa
Eastern Washington Washington State
Southern Utah Arizona
North Carolina Central Duke
Maine Central Michigan
Gardner-Webb Appalachian State
Illinois State Colorado State
Duquesne Hawaii
McNeese BYU
Texas Southern Houston
Tennessee State Vanderbilt
Houston Baptist SMU
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Florida International
Alabama State South Alabama
Idaho State Liberty
Alcorn State New Mexico State
Lafayette Army
Western Carolina North Carolina
The Citadel Alabama
Idaho Florida
Chattanooga South Carolina
Colgate Army
VMI Old Dominion