Spread picks for every college football game in 2018’s Week 4

The Aggies have a decent chance to cover against Bama, Oregon can upset Stanford, and more.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Sep 20, 2018, 8:00am EDT

NCAA Football: Clemson at Texas A&M — Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher

Below are FBS picks and projections using the S&P+ projections, listed in full for all 130 FBS teams here. See the bottom of the post for more detail about these.

The spread (listed in parentheses) is shown next to S&P+’s pick for each game. The team in bold is projected to beat the spread. (At most books, there is no listed spread for FCS games.) When S&P+ predicts a tie or a push (a tie with Vegas, basically), I list the pick on the side S&P+ would pick if teams could score in decimals.

This document breaks games (and S&P+’s season performance to date) out into their decimal glory. This year, I am including and monitoring total (over/under) picks as well.

Thursday

NCAA Football: Temple at Maryland — Temple’s Ryquell Armstead

Temple (-7.5) 31, Tulsa 20 (Sep. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Will the real Temple stand up? Are you the team that couldn’t close the deal against Villanova, or are you the team that laid waste to Maryland?

Friday

NCAA Football: South Carolina State at Central Florida — UCF’s Darriel Mack Jr.

No. 16 UCF (-13.5) 43, FAU 24 (Sep. 21, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 10 Penn State (-28) 45, Illinois 14 (Sep. 21, 9 p.m. ET, FS1)
USC 25, Washington State (+3.5) 25 (Sep. 21, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) (actual projected score: USC 25.0, Wazzu 24.9)

FAU has taken a few steps backward since the end of last season, and the Owls’ trip to UCF has lost a little luster because of it. But they didn’t flip the switch until a few games into 2017, either. Might they start a rebound in Orlando?

Ranked vs. ranked

NCAA Football: San Jose State at Oregon — Oregon’s Mario Cristobal

No. 1 Alabama 41, No. 22 Texas A&M (+27) 23 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 20 Oregon (+3) 26, No. 7 Stanford 25 (Sep. 22, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)

It’s the first big game of the Mario Cristobal era at UO. S&P+ doesn’t like Stanford as much as the polls — the primary culprit: offensive inefficiency — but can the Ducks pull the (slight) upset as projected?

Other ranked teams in action

NCAA Football: Vanderbilt at Notre Dame — Notre Dame’s Brandon Wimbush

No. 2 Georgia (-14.5) 43, Missouri 27 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 3 Clemson (-17) 41, Georgia Tech 21 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 4 Ohio State (-37.5) 50, Tulane 12 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
No. 5 Oklahoma (-32) 54, Army 19 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, PPV)
No. 6 LSU 38, Louisiana Tech (+21.5) 20 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
No. 8 Notre Dame (-7.5) 31, Wake Forest 20 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 9 Auburn 37, Arkansas (+29.5) 16 (Sep. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
No. 10 Washington (-17) 36, Arizona State 14 (Sep. 22, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 12 West Virginia (-16.5) 45, Kansas State 21 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
No. 13 Virginia Tech 37, Old Dominion (+28) 17 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
No. 14 Mississippi State (-10) 35, Kentucky 24 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 15 Oklahoma State (-13.5) 45, Texas Tech 22 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, FS1)
No. 17 TCU 30, Texas (+4) 27 (Sep. 22, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 18 Wisconsin (-3) 25, Iowa 19 (Sep. 22, 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 19 Michigan 35, Nebraska (+19) 19 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, FS1)
No. 21 Miami 43, Florida International (+26.5) 22 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
No. 23 Boston College (-7) 40, Purdue 29 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Indiana (+5) 27, No. 24 Michigan State 26 (Sep. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
No. 25 BYU 28, McNeese State 1 (Sep. 22, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN3) (OK, maybe 27-0 is more likely)

Notre Dame, winning a game by more than a touchdown in 2018? Is that actually legal?

Power 5 vs. Power 5

Arizona 33, Oregon State (+6.5) 32 (Sep. 22, 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12)
Baylor (-7.5) 31, Kansas 23 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Florida 28, Tennessee (+4.5) 28 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN) (Actual projected score: Florida 28.49, Tennessee 28.21)
Minnesota (+3) 26, Maryland 18 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. PM ET, BTN)
Pittsburgh (-3.5) 28, North Carolina 22 (Sep. 22, 12:20 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Vanderbilt (+2.5) 28, South Carolina 27 (Sep. 22, 4 p.m. ET, SECN)
Virginia (-4.5) 35, Louisville 24 (Sep. 22, 12:30 PM ET, ACCN)

Vandy nearly got the job done at Notre Dame last week. Now the Commodores get a second chance at an upset.

FBS vs. FBS

NCAA Football: Florida State at Syracuse — FSU’s Deondre Francois

Arkansas State 34, UNLV (+7.5) 31 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Ball State 25, Western Kentucky (+2.5) 23 (Sep. 22, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Buffalo (-6) 33, Rutgers 19 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, BTN)
Cincinnati (-8.5) 45, Ohio 20 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Florida State 18, Northern Illinois (+10) 11 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Iowa State 32, Akron (+18.5) 16 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, FSN)
Massachusetts 36, Charlotte (+9.5) 27 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ELVN)
Memphis (-31) 49, South Alabama 16 (Sep. 22, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Miami (Ohio) (-7) 40, Bowling Green 23 (Sep. 22, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Navy (-7) 44, SMU 32 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNN)
NC State 29, Marshall (+5) 26 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
New Mexico State (-3.5) 30, UTEP 22 (Sep. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
North Texas 36, Liberty (+13.5) 24 (Sep. 22, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Ole Miss 52, Kent State (+29) 27 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, SECN)
San Diego State 36, Eastern Michigan (+11) 28 (Sep. 22, 10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Southern Miss (-14) 40, Rice 16 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Syracuse (-27.5) 52, Connecticut 18 (Sep. 22, 4 p.m. ET, ESPNN)
Toledo (-10) 44, Nevada 26 (Sep. 22, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Troy 32, UL-Monroe (+6) 29 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
UL-Lafayette (-3.5) 42, Coastal Carolina 36 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
USF (-22) 41, East Carolina 15 (Sep. 22, 8 p.m. ET, ESPNN)
Utah State (-10.5) 35, Air Force 18 (Sep. 22, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
UTSA 26, Texas State (+7.5) 25 (Sep. 22, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Western Michigan (-7.5) 37, Georgia State 25 (Sep. 22, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

FSU can’t block anyone and now must deal with one of the best attacking linemen in the country in NIU’s Sutton Smith. The Noles’ defense shouldn’t have much trouble, but this might not be the week the offense gets back on track.

FBS vs. FCS

NCAA Football: Hawaii at Army — Hawaii’s Cole McDonald

Appalachian State 52, Gardner-Webb 0 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Central Michigan 11, Maine 5 (Sep. 22, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Colorado State 17, Illinois State 17 (Sep. 22, 3 p.m. ET, MWC Video) (actual projected score: CSU 17.0, ISU 16.8)
Duke 49, NC Central 0 (Sep. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Hawaii 32, Duquesne 12 (Sep. 22, 11:59 p.m. ET, Stadium App)
Houston 57, Texas Southern 0 (Sep. 22, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Hawaii nearly returned from a cross-country trip with a win over Army but couldn’t get the job done. The recovery begins this week.

Each year, I post weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.

S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own.

And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)