Fantasy Football 2012 - Week 4 Wide Receiver Rankings

We have moved from the NFL draft to preseason games to opening day and now we land on the beginning of another important stage of fantasy football, the bye weeks! Is your team ready?

"Depth" is an important word these weeks as teams start to take time off, leaving our fantasy rosters thin. Who can you trust? Who is getting the ball? Who should you pick up on waivers? Who has the best matchup? These are all important questions as we make the tough lineup Start/Sit decisions.

This week I will be introducing a new format to the wide receiver rankings. I feel we are far enough into the season to start posting matchup information. Also, targets are becoming more and more important as we evaluate which wide receivers are the favorites for their respective QBs. And, of course, a general notes section will highlight some important points for the week. Let's start right there:

NOTES:

• Welcome to the 2012 NFL season, Larry Fitzgerald. For those of us who drafted him in the second or third rounds, frustration levels were reaching "Benching Levels" after his one-catch performance in Week 2. Hopefully, you fought that urge and cashed in on his matchup with the Eagles.
• Who was this receiver wearing Santonio Holmes' jersey in Week 3? He had his first 100-yard receiving day in his last 25-plus starts. Whoa. Are you convinced? I'm not sure that I am, as my No. 33 ranking (see below) has him as a low-end WR3 in a 12-team league.
• Please don't be fooled by Golden Tate's two-touchdown performance against the Packers. If you are breathing, I'm sure you saw his second catch in replay after replay after replay on Tuesday. Or should I say his non-catch? I don't think he should be a starter for you, and I don't trust his QB Russell Wilson, yet.
• I'm not sure if it is just data or a real trend, but I'm starting to get concerned about wide receiver performances for those teams playing on Thursday Night Football. Sure, Eli Manning and the boys finished with great numbers in Week 3, but that was after three INTs in the first half. Carolina, Green Bay and Chicago (remember the pathetic week from Brandon Marshall) all were quite underwhelming. Just a half a word of caution for Torrey Smith owners on Thursday. We know he played in an emotional game late into Sunday night, so there could be a significant letdown. No one is their right mind is starting a Cleveland Browns wide receiver, so no warning needed in that case.
• Jerome Simpson is back from his three-game suspension this week. Couple that with Christian Ponder really looking nice .... he could be a good waiver-wire move for your team.
• Hold judgment on Brandon Lloyd. Yes, I know he has been a slight disappointment thus far. But, his targets are up and I think he could be a buy-low candidate as we move forward.
• As mentioned above, the bye weeks start this week, so be sure to bench all Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers for Week 4.
• Besides the guys on bye, keep an eye on these injured wideouts: Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin, Marques Colston, Kenny Britt and Leonard Hankerson.

TARGETS:

Fantasy wide receiver scoring can be fluky (see Golden Tate). But, one thing that you can't argue with is targets. See the chart below showing the Year-To-Date and Week 3 target leaders:

FANTASY POINTS ALLOWED (FPA):

FPA is a great judge of the strength of a future matchup. The number next to the teams' names represents how many fantasy points that team is giving up to the entire receiving corps on an average weekly basis. This data wouldn't force you to start Mike Williams (TB) as your WR1 just because they are playing the Redskins. But, it might help you break the tie between Vincent Jackson and Roddy White. Obviously, you want your guy to play against a team that is allowing a LOT of points to WRs:

Week 4 Rankings