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Projecting Yankees To Miss Playoffs

Baseball Prospectus has released their first Postseason Odds report for 2011, and even with the caveats it's always compelling stuff. One obvious caveat: It's early, and the rosters are going to look quite a bit different in August than April. Shoot, at this point in the process we don't know precisely who's going to be on the rosters in April. Then again, it's mostly the every-day players and regular starters who make the real differences, and we do know the great majority of them.

After the jump, the eight projected playoff teams ...

Here you go:

AL East: Red Sox (average 93 wins)
AL Central: Twins (86 wins)
AL West: Rangers (86 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Rays (85 wins)

NL East: Phillies (87 wins)
NL Central: Brewers (86 wins)
NL West: Rockies (87 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Dodgers (85 wins)

Gee, that doesn't seem like much fun, does it? Only one team with more than 87 wins? Granted, you might enjoy the absence of the Yankees from that run; PECOTA's got them finishing 83-79.

These things are nice little February diversions and PECOTA's made some great calls before -- most famously, predicting a nice season for Tampa Bay in 2008 -- but at this point there are just too many roster decisions that haven't been made, injuries that haven't befallen, etc. And if the Yankees really win fewer than 85 games this season, I'll eat these electrons.

(Big tip o' the cap to BTF's Newsstand for this one.)

Update: I've been informed by someone at Baseball Prospectus that the above projections were erroneously posted, and are not accurate. It's still fun to think about the Yankees winning 83 games!