Johnny Cueto could be a $130 million bargain

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Johnny Cueto should have been one of the $200 million pitchers. Instead, he felt a twinge in his elbow in May, and even though the scans came back clean, his second half was just inconsistent enough -- especially for a pitcher who has been consistently fantastic for years now -- that it put fear into teams who would have been willing to pay him that much. He rebounded a bit in the playoffs, helping to lead the Royals to the World Series, but the damage was done, and Cueto wasn't going to be paid $200 million.

How much he would get was still up for questioning, though, and while the Diamondbacks' initial offer of $120 million over six years seemed light, the right-hander would end up signing with the Giants for $130 million over six. Of course, he also got an opt out after just two years, and that's the only reason he agreed to less than $22 million per year, so it's a little tough to analyze the long-term value of the deal given that. However, there is a real shot for Cueto to be a bargain here at that price tag: if he's healthy and the Cueto he was prior to the second half of 2015, the Giants just signed one of the game's very best at a second-tier price tag.

Between 2011 and 2014, Cueto posted a 156 ERA+, second only to Clayton Kershaw in that stretch, minimum 600 innings. He missed time with injury in 2013, but then bounced back with 243 frames and a 163 ERA+ in 2014, and has racked up over 200 innings in three of the last four seasons. If the Giants get some version of that for two years -- and Cueto is only 30, so he certainly could still be in his peak -- then it won't be Madison Bumgarner playing the role of ace in San Francisco. Cueto has to stay healthy, of course, and prove that his second half was a blip. If not, then $130 million doesn't seem like so much of a bargain anymore.

• The Giants are taking a risk with Cueto as well as Jeff Samardzija, but if the two perform to the high levels they've managed in the past, that rotation is going to be ridiculous. We're heading into an even year, so you know what's going to happen.


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