The Phillies will eat $50 million to get rid of Ryan Howard. Like, they'll sit down at a table piled with $100 bills -- 500,000 of them -- and eat every single one, perhaps after dipping them in ranch, if you will take Howard off their hands. They would prefer to just pay most of his salary, though, and they're willing to do that, too. They will pay $50 million of his salary. He is owed $50 million in salary over the next two years. This would seem to make things easy.
Except there's a $10 million buyout of the option on Howard's contract, which means whatever team acquires him will essentially pay him $5 million a year for the next two seasons. Unless his new team exercises the option! Most likely, though, Howard would be a DH on the equivalent of a two-year, $10 million contract. Who would want him? Is there a team that would even consider it?
First, we need to look at what a $5 million per year DH should hit if he wants to be worth the money. FanGraphs had Billy Butler's 2011 season worth just under $6 million, and he hit .291, with a .361 on-base percentage, a .461 slugging percentage and 19 homers. So, if Howard could do that, he would be worth the money.
...
For two years. If he could do that for two years, he would be worth the money.
...
Wait! League-wide scoring was higher in 2011, so you have to adjust for that using my favorite Baseball-Reference.com toy. Okay, just plug in "2014" and select "American League" and "neutral park," and we find that Butler's .291/.361/.461 line from 2011 is the same as a .291/.361/.461 line today.
...
Everyone who thinks Ryan Howard is good for a sweet .361 on-base percentage and good health for the next two seasons, start the letter-writing campaign now. Everyone else, well, we'll assume teams will need to ask the Phillies to eat a little more money. Or pay a little more of the money owed to Howard.
Here, then, is a team-by-team look at the American League, and what every team might pay for an aging DH who has a chance to hit some dingers. I didn't do this for the National League, and I guess if Michael Cuddyer can still be an outfielder, Howard can still play first base. Let's assume that it's only the AL teams that might be interested for now.
(The Rockies would be pretty fun, though.)
Houston Astros
Current DH
Evan Gattis
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Chris Carter, Jon Singleton
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Los Angeles Angels
Current DH
C.J. Cron
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Albert Pujols, Matt Joyce, Collin Cowgill
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
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Oakland Athletics
Current DH
Billy Butler
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Ike Davis, Nate Freiman
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Seattle Mariners
Current DH
Nelson Cruz
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Rickie Weeks, Jesus Montero
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Texas Rangers
Current DH
Mitch Moreland
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Prince Fielder, Kyle Blanks,
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Chicago White Sox
Current DH
Adam LaRoche
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Jose Abreu
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Cleveland Indians
Current DH
Nick Swisher
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Brandon Moss, David Murphy
Need for Ryan Howard
Medium!
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Hey! Two years, $4 million? It depends on how Swisher's knees are feeling, but they ruined the unintentional joke by making a modicum of sense.
Detroit Tigers
Current DH
Victor Martinez
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Kansas City Royals
Current DH
Kendrys Morales
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Alex Rios, Matt Fields
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Minnesota Twins
Current DH
Kennys Vargas
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Joe Mauer
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Baltimore Orioles
Current DH
Steve Pearce
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Chris Davis, Delmon Young
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Boston Red Sox
Current DH
David Ortiz
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Daniel Nava, Allen Craig
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
New York Yankees
Current DH
Garrett Jones
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Alex Rodriguez
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Tampa Bay Rays
Current DH
John Jaso
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
David DeJesus, Brandon Guyer
Need for Ryan Howard
Low
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Two years, $2 million? Taking a chance on Howard as left-handed power off the bench might make sense here.
Toronto Blue Jays
Current DH
Dioner Navarro
Possible reserves, occasional DHs
Justin Smoak
Need for Ryan Howard
Medium!
What they might pay for two years of Ryan Howard
Hey! Two years, $4 million? They might even go two years, $6 million if they're feeling froggy.
Long list short: Maybe the Indians? Maybe the Blue Jays. Not at the price the Phillies are suggesting, and probably not that close. Oh, and Howard can block a trade to those two teams, and I know I'm not in the mood to pack up my crap and move to Canada, even if it seems delightful enough. He could want to play that contract out in comfortable, familiar ignominy.
The Phillies are open to paying Ryan Howard while he plays for someone else. That's great! They're not open to paying Ryan Howard as much as it would take to trade him. Unless someone wants him to be the world's most expensive pinch-hitter (at least the most expensive one acquired specifically for that role), a trade seems extremely unlikely at this point.