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One of the Rockies or Brewers probably isn’t making the postseason

Wednesday’s Say Hey, Baseball looks at the race for the second NL wild card, a record-setting homer, and Chase Headley getting hit in the beans.

Milwaukee Brewers v Colorado Rockies Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

With each Cubs victory or Brewers loss, the chances of Milwaukee winning the NL Central dwindle. The Brewers are 3.5 back of the Cubs with 11 games left in their season, and they have a 3.6 percent probability of wresting the division from Chicago before they run out of season. That number is a little misleading as to their chances in a way, as the Brewers do have a four-game series against the Cubs left on the schedule, but they probably have to sweep to see a serious increase in their chances.

The Rockies' chances of winning the NL West died somewhere back in mid-summer, and they're still 14 games back of the Dodgers in the division despite Los Angeles' horrific September. They're also 4.5 games behind the D-Backs for the first wild card, so the Rockies are still very much in this postseason race, whereas their division mates are basically comfortable in the knowledge they'll be playing meaningful October baseball.

It's here in the third paragraph that the stories of these two teams converge, as the Brewers are just one game behind the Rockies for that second NL wild card. If you look at the probabilities, the Rockies are the clear favorites, as they have an 84 percent chance of holding on to that spot. However, much of that has to do with the remaining schedules: As stated before, the Brewers have four left against the Cubs and three against the Cardinals, while the Rockies get four against the lowly Padres and follow that up with a three-game Marlins series.

The Rockies finish the year against the Dodgers, who have obviously been great in 2017, but the past tense right there isn't a coincidence. The Brewers get one series you could consider a layup in the Reds, while the Rockies are at more like 2.5 out of the three remaining ones.

The thing is, if these probabilities are mostly coming down to remaining schedule, they're ... well, they aren't meaningless, but it's a good spot for the Brewers to go all Han Solo about odds. Much more unlikely occurrences than the Brewers playing well over 10 games while the Rockies play slightly less well, regardless of who the opponents are, occur all the time.

And it's all close enough that this could come down to a game 163. Another game 163 for the Rockies, 10 years after the last one? Let's get weird, baseball.