The ERAs that have never existed in baseball history

There were 26 pitchers who finished the 2017 season with a 0.00 ERA. Among them were Jon Jay and Mitch Moreland, three different Tylers, and at least four different players with George Lucas-ass names (David Goforth, Jason Gurka, Damien Magnifico, and Thyago Vieira). It’s not that hard to finish the season with a 0.00 ERA. Don’t allow any runs, stupid, and you’re on your way.

But a 0.01 ERA? Ah, there’s a tricky one. It would take a pitcher 900 innings to have a chance at a 0.01 ERA, and he would only be able to allow one earned run. This has never happened and never will, of course. This also goes for the 0.02 ERA, which would cut the required innings in half, but still be impossible to reach. When you get to the 0.03 ERA, you’re at least in the realm of a reasonable innings target (300!), but it’s still mostly impossible.

The lowest ERA in baseball history that isn’t a flat 0.00? That belongs to Joba Chamberlain, who posted a 0.38 ERA in 2007. It was effectively tied by Buck O’Brien in 1911, except Chamberlain’s ERA was rounded up from 0.375, and O’Brien’s was 0.378, which is just a midge higher. We’ve moved into the area of possible ERAs, now. These are the ERAs that could exist, in theory, but don’t.

My goal today is to find the ERAs that have never existed, the uncharted statistical territories that are without a flag. After the 0.38 ERAs of Chamberlain and O’Brien, we have the 0.39 ERA of Cliff Markle in 1915, and after that, we have the 0.40 ERA of Joel Johnston in 1991. After that, though, there’s a gap, and we have to go all the way to Craig Kimbrel’s 0.44 ERA in 2010 to find an ERA that’s existed in the wild.

Where are the 0.41, 0.42, and 0.43 ERAs? They’re statistically possible, certainly. A pitcher who throws 22 innings and allows an earned run would have the 0.41 ERA. It just hasn’t happened yet.

This brings us to my point: I’m a huge nerd, and I feel like it is my mission to discover the ERAs that haven’t yet been achieved.

Once you’re deep into the 1.00s, there are several of each. When you’re in the 2.00s, there are dozens of every ERA, give or take. There have been several 2.01 ERAs. There have been several 2.99 ERAs. As you get closer to the median, there are more and more examples. Grover Lowdermilk posted a pi-friendly 3.14 in 1916, and Craig Stammen did it last year. Once you’re into the 3.00s, you’ll notice that almost all of them were claimed before the first World War began.

All of the ERAs from 1.06 to 6.73 are taken. There will be no flags planted on these ERAs. With that written, with the help of Baseball-Reference’s indispensable Play Index, I would like to present the ERAs between 0.00 and 10.00 that have never existed.

0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.55
0.58
0.62
0.65
0.78 (Update: Blake Treinen, 2018)
0.80
0.85
0.88
0.91
0.97
0.99

1.05

6.74
6.76

7.72
7.73
7.95

8.01
8.09
8.23
8.30
8.32
8.37
8.43
8.72
8.73
8.93
8.94
8.96
8.97
8.98
8.99

9.01
9.02
9.03
9.04
9.05
9.07
9.11
9.21
9.34
9.40
9.44
9.46
9.47
9.51
9.52
9.54
9.59
9.61
9.62
9.63
9.65
9.70
9.73
9.77
9.78
9.79
9.80
9.81
9.83
9.84
9.86
9.89
9.91
9.93
9.94
9.96
9.97

Some of these are achievable. Give up just four runs in 34⅓ innings? You’ve landed on the moon, so to speak, and that 1.05 ERA bodes well for your future. Give up 125 earned runs in 167 innings? Well ... the important thing is that you tried, and at least your 6.74 ERA is one of a kind.

Once you get past 10.00, forget about it. Nobody has posted a 14.39 ERA, and no one ever will. The specific combination of earned runs and innings pitched is too outlandish, especially when you consider that the worse someone pitches, the less likely they are to continue pitching.

My hope when I started this research was that there would be one regular ol’ ERA in the middle that was a holy grail. After all this time, we would realize that nobody had ever had a 4.53 ERA — not even Jeff Suppan — and we would all have a good laugh about it. Except several people have had a 4.53 ERA, including Suppan. I did not know this before using him as an example for a typical 4.53 ERA, and now I’m scared. I absolutely swear on a stack of Willie Mays cards this is true.

Instead, it looks like the realistic holy grail is 1.05. It’s tough and demanding, and it would take a heckuva effort. But we’ve seen relief seasons like eight runs in 68⅔ innings. It’s nothing that unheard of for a closer. We just need it to happen again so that we can move on to 0.99.

The larger point is there needs to be a damned trade or a free agent signing because I’m losing my mind. We’re about a news-free week away from me texting, “THERE HAS NEVER BEEN AN 8.37 ERA” to my wife, which would be followed by a “THERE HAS NEVER BEEN AN 8.43 ERA” text minutes later. She knew what she was getting into, yes, but nobody deserves that. Make some moves, baseball teams.

In conclusion, Grover Lowdermilk. Thank you.

Immaculate innings are awesome, and they’re on the rise