When you put two elite grapplers in the cage together odds are you're about to see some questionable striking. If it must be poor, at least make it powerful. That advantage goes to Munoz. He absolutely crumpled CB Dollaway in his last fight, and thanks to CB and Nate Marquardt, we know there's a chance this fight could be over in one punch. I like Munoz' chances of landing a bomb more than I do of Maia managing a takedown.
I know Maia has markedly improved his striking over the last few years, but I'm just not overly impressed with his wins in the UFC, aside from maybe Chael Sonnen. His most recent wins come from Mario Miranda and Kendall Grove, one fighter already released by the UFC and the other likely to join him shortly. Barring some horrible decision making by Munoz, I think he takes this fight.
My pick: Munoz via DEC