All signs still point to restricted free agent Tristan Thompson remaining with the Cavaliers. What kind of contract he ends up signing with them is the interesting part.
Thompson is looking for a maximum deal, which would come out to five years and about $94 million, according to ESPN's Brian Windhorst. However, the Cavaliers are offering Thompson "significantly less" than that and that there's been "no real progress" made between the two sides since the second week of July, according to the report.
This negotiation is a complicated one for myriad reasons. The Cavaliers are looking to save some money on a large luxury-tax bill. As Windhorst points out, Cleveland has recently signed five players (LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert and Anderson Varejao) to big contracts and is currently $4 million over the tax line.
"If they were to sign Thompson to a deal that started at $15 million, it would add more than $35 million to their tax bill this season alone, not including Thompson's salary," writes Windhorst.
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One option to limit that is to get Thompson to sign a one-year qualifying offer of about $7 million. That would lower the team's tax hit, and the Cavaliers could then sign Thompson a large extension next summer. Next year's large salary cap jump will cause that luxury tax line to rise, meaning the Cavaliers' bill will be significantly less than it is this year.
The problem with that thinking is it ignores the long view. If Thompson were to sign his qualifying offer, he'd become an unrestricted free agent next season and will likely have multiple teams offering him a max deal. Under the new cap, that will be for much more than $94 million.
"The 2016 free agent class isn't very deep and it's generally older," one NBA general manager told Windhorst. "It's rare to see an unrestricted free agent that's 25 or younger, especially a big. If [Thompson] were to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and he's healthy, he probably would be one of the top free agents available."
Because of that, Thompson, who is just 24 and coming off a season in which he averaged nine points and eight rebounds per game, would be better off himself accepting that one-year qualifying offer and hitting free agency next season. The Cavaliers may believe they have the leverage because Thompson is restricted this summer and nobody seems interested in handing him an offer sheet. However, the threat of a qualifying offer is leverage for Thompson because he would then either leave or become more expensive to retain in the summer of 2016. Hence, the stalemate.
There's also the fact that Thompson is represented by Rich Paul, LeBron James' agent and friend. There's no question that James wants Thompson back in Cleveland and that he wants him to get paid in full. How the Cavaliers balance that factor along with everything else is going to be fascinating to watch.