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NBA mock draft 2018: How far will Luka Doncic fall?

This consensus mock draft shows that Doncic could slide out of the top-three.

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Luka Doncic has appeared as the No. 1 pick in every single mock draft SB Nation has published over the last 11 months. That’s because Doncic is the most decorated and accomplished player in this class, while also showcasing the type of skill set that fits seamlessly into the modern NBA.

We believe in Doncic’s star power, but that doesn’t mean it’s a consensus opinion among NBA teams. The latest buzz is that Arizona center Deandre Ayton is the frontrunner to go No. 1 overall to the Phoenix Suns, and that Doncic could drop out of the top-three entirely.

It’s within this context that we present our first consensus mock draft. It features mock drafts from ESPN (published 5/30), Bleacher Report (5/31), SI (5/21), Tankathon (5/30) and our own most recent mock, which was published on May 29.

We’ll have analysis on some emerging trends after this table:

2018 NBA consensus mock draft

Team ESPN SB Nation B/R SI Tankathon
Team ESPN SB Nation B/R SI Tankathon
1. Phoenix Suns Deandre Ayton Luka Doncic Deandre Ayton Deandre Ayton Deandre Ayton
2. Sacramento Kings Marvin Bagley III Deandre Ayton Marvin Bagley III Luka Doncic Luka Doncic
3. Atlanta Hawks Jaren Jackson Jr. Jaren Jackson Jr. Mohamed Bamba Jaren Jackson Jr. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Memphis Grizzlies Luka Doncic Marvin Bagley III Luka Doncic Marvin Bagley III Marvin Bagley III
5. Dallas Mavericks Mohamed Bamba Mohamed Bamba Jaren Jackson Jr. Mohamed Bamba Mohamed Bamba
6. Orlando Magic Trae Young Trae Young Trae Young Wendell Carter Trae Young
7. Chicago Bulls Wendell Carter Michael Porter Jr. Wendell Carter Michael Porter Jr. Michael Porter Jr.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers Michael Porter Jr. Miles Bridges Michael Porter Jr. Trae Young Wendell Carter
9. New York Knicks Collin Sexton Wendell Carter Mikal Bridges Mikal Bridges Mikal Bridges
10. Philadelphia 76ers Mikal Bridges Mikal Bridges Lonnie Walker Miles Bridges Miles Bridges
11. Charlotte Hornets Miles Bridges Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Miles Bridges Collin Sexton Collin Sexton
12. Los Angeles Clippers Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Collin Sexton Collin Sexton Kevin Knox Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
13. Los Angeles Clippers Lonnie Walker Kevin Knox Robert Williams Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Lonnie Walker
14. Denver Nuggets Robert Williams Lonnie Walker Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Robert Williams Robert Williams
15. Washington Wizards Kevin Knox Robert Williams Kevin Knox Lonnie Walker Kevin Knox
16. Phoenix Suns Zhaire Smith Troy Brown Donte DiVincenzo Aaron Holiday Zhaire Smith
17. Milwaukee Bucks Aaron Holiday Zhaire Smith Zhaire Smith Zhaire Smith Anfernee Simons
18. San Antonio Spurs Troy Brown Elie Okobo Elie Okobo Kevin Huerter Dzanan Musa
19. Atlanta Hawks Kevin Huerter Anfernee Simons Jerome Robinson Anfernee Simons Troy Brown
20. Minnesota Timberwolves Keita Bates-Diop Keita Bates-Diop Kevin Huerter Donte DiVincenzo Jacob Evans
21. Utah Jazz Elie Okobo Dzanan Musa Keita Bates-Diop Troy Brown Shake Milton
22. Chicago Bulls Dzanan Musa Chandler Hutchison Chandler Hutchison Chandler Hutchison Mitchell Robinson
23. Indiana Pacers Chandler Hutchison Landry Shamet Aaron Holiday Jontay Porter* Aaron Holiday
24. Portland Trail Blazers Khyri Thomas Jacob Evans Troy Brown Dzanan Musa Chandler Hutchison
25. Los Angeles Lakers De'Anthony Melton Mitchell Robinson De'Anthony Melton Mitchell Robinson Keita Bates-Diop
26. Philadelphia 76ers Jacob Evans Kevin Huerter Melvin Frazier De'Anthony Melton Donte DiVincenzo
27. Boston Celtics Josh Okogie Donte DiVincenzo Jacob Evans Bruce Brown Kevin Huerter
28. Golden State Warriors Donte DiVincenzo Kevin Hervey Khyri Thomas Jalen Brunson Khyri Thomas
29. Brooklyn Nets Jerome Robinson Jalen Brunson Moritz Wagner Jerome Robinson Melvin Frazier
30. Atlanta Hawks Grayson Allen Josh Okogie Mitchell Robinson Melvin Frazier Isaac Bonga
  • Doncic’s range is anywhere from 1-4. There’s still reason to believe he could be the first overall pick — Phoenix did hire Igor Kokoskov as head coach this summer, who coached Doncic to a gold medal with Slovenia at EuroBasket a year ago. But if the Suns pass, Doncic’s slide could begin in earnest. The Kings, sitting at No. 2, reportedly aren’t high on him. The Hawks may be a fit at No. 3, but Jaren Jackson Jr. is also awfully tough to pass on. The Memphis Grizzlies would be ecstatic to see him last until No. 4.
  • It feels like the first four picks are going to be Ayton, Doncic, Jackson and Marvin Bagley III in some order. Things start getting interesting when Dallas comes on the clock with the fifth pick. Texas center Mohamed Bamba is the popular pick for the Mavs right now, but Mizzou combo forward Michael Porter Jr. and Duke center Wendell Carter will also be in play. Is Rick Carlisle patient enough to wait for Bamba’s frame and offense to develop? Is Porter worth the injury risk? Unless Bamba sneaks into the top-four (it’s possible), the Mavs are going to have a difficult decision on their hands.
  • The Bulls are another wildcard at No. 7. Bamba, Carter, Porter and Trae Young are all possibilities. The chief concern for Chicago: how many minutes can Lauri Markkanen play at center? If the Bulls believe he can handle spot time at the five, is it really worth it to take another center like Bamba or Carter? Young is also a tricky fit for a team that is likely about to resign Zach LaVine to a long-term deal in the backcourt. That’s a defensive disaster waiting to happen. Porter just feels like the pick if he’s on the board: he fits a positional need and more importantly appears to have the highest ceiling of any player in this group. Porter has his own red flags, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Chicago talk themselves into his upside.
  • The Knicks are going to have some good options at No. 9. It’s possible Carter slides due to the glut of bigs in this draft. An attacking point guard like Young or Collin Sexton could be a good fit next to the defensive minded Frank Ntilikina. Both of the Bridges would work, too: Villanova’s Mikal has a classic 3-and-D skill set, while Michigan State’s Miles is more athletic and offers better potential in transition and as a shot creator. This draft is deep enough for the Knicks to get another building block at No. 9.
  • Could the Clippers use picks No. 12 and No. 13 to trade up? If Porter is available at No. 7, the Bulls feel like a logical trading partner to move back and grab a pair of players.
  • Maryland’s Kevin Huerter might be the hottest name in the draft. He’s projected to go as high as No. 18 to the Spurs. You barely heard any buzz on Huerter as a potential first rounder before the combine, but he’s starting to feel like a lock due to his size (6’8), shooting and ability to make quick reads.
  • Jerome Robinson is a name NBA fans might not be familiar with because he played for a forgettable Boston College team, but he’s making a first round push as a 6’5 scoring guard who can fill it up from deep. His range is anywhere from the the top-20 to out of the first round.
  • Anfernee Simons is another major wildcard. The fifth-year high school guard who enters through the same loophole that Thon Maker once did. He’s an explosive athlete who has flashed shot-making ability, but he badly needs to add strength. Will a patient team roll the dice on his upside in round one? Two of the five mock drafts here have him going in the second round.
  • What a difference one game can make. Without his breakout performance in the national championship against Michigan, Donte DiVincenzo is likely going back to Villanova. Now he’s projected to go as high as No. 16 in one mock, and projects safely as a first rounder. DiVincenzo posted the highest vertical jump at the combine, has range on his jumper and plays with the two-way intensity teams covet.
  • Don’t know Elie Okobo yet? Get familiar. The 6’3 guard has been surging for his French pro team of late, and now feels like he’ll be the fourth point guard taken.

The draft goes down on June 21. We’ll be back with another original mock next week.