NBA mock draft 2022: Newest projection for each pick’s best and most likely selection

Beauty is always in the eye of the beholder in the NBA Draft. It’s not just that different teams can have wildly different boards — it’s just as common for there to be significant disagreement within the same front office.

With that in mind, we did two mock drafts in one. The left column is the most likely pick based on the way the wind is blowing ahead of the draft. That is the more ‘official’ mock. The right column is what we would do with every pick.

We’ll be covering this draft until the picks are made on Thursday, June 23. Check out our comprehensive scouting reports on the top three players on our board: 1) Paolo Banchero, 2) Chet Holmgren, and 3) Jaden Ivey. Read our feature on the rise and fall of Patrick Baldwin Jr. as a top draft prospect.

You can find additional insight on every pick in both mock drafts below the table. Here’s our latest projection on what we think every team is going to do, and what they should do when they come on the clock.

1. Orlando Magic

Why Jabari Smith Jr. is the most likely pick on the board: Most of the reporting around Orlando’s thinking at No. 1 has Smith as a slight front-runner over Chet Holmgren. The Magic finished No. 28 in three-point percentage this season, and Smith is an elite shooter at 6’10. As long as Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, or Cole Anthony can set him up, Smith should be able to knock down shots at a high clip.

Why Paolo Banchero is the best pick on the board: Banchero is our No. 1 player in the class because of his shot creation ability — a combination of ball handling, live dribble passing, and versatile scoring — at 6’10, 250 pounds. Orlando has some nice young pieces on the roster, but they don’t have a primary initiator with star potential. Banchero is the best bet to turn into that in our estimation.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

Why Chet Holmgren is the most likely pick on the board: The Thunder are taking a long-term view of rebuilding that places a premium upside, length, and versatility — three boxes Holmgren checks. There’s an easy argument to make that he has the highest ceiling in the draft if everything comes together. He’d be an immediate building block in the front court for the Thunder, and could eventually become the face of the franchise.

Why Chet Holmgren is the best pick on the board: Holmgren is our No. 2 prospect in the class for his combination of physical tools, statistical production, and mentality. Holmgren is an excellent rim protection prospect with great length and incredible instincts as a shot blocker. He does a little bit of everything offensively, showing the ability to space the floor, make quick decisions as a passer, and finish relentlessly around the rim. Holmgren has been doubted for his thin frame since he first emerged as a top prospect, but he’s consistently met the moment with tremendous production at both ends of the floor.

3. Houston Rockets

Why Paolo Banchero is the most likely pick on the board: The Rockets have the easiest decision in the draft in a lot of ways. There are three big forwards viewed as the consensus top prospects in the draft, and the Rockets will select the one that’s still on the board when they’re on the clock at No. 3 overall. Banchero and last year’s No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green would form a fantastic offensive foundation. If it happens, Houston’s mission would quickly become finding players who can complement their two young stars.

Why Jabari Smith Jr. is the best pick on the board: With Banchero and Holmgren each off the board in this mock, Smith is the easy pick for his fantastic shooting projection and comfort defending out on the perimeter.

4. Sacramento Kings

Why Jaden Ivey is the most likely pick on the board: After the top three forwards, most believe there’s a significant gap between Ivey and the fifth best prospect in this draft. Ivey isn’t a perfect fit next to De’Aaron Fox due to shooting and processing concerns, but it’s likely the Kings can find a willing trade partner for this pick if they’d prefer move down a spot or two and grab someone else. If Sacramento stays put and still doesn’t want to take Ivey, the most likely picks feel like Shaedon Sharpe or Keegan Murray.

Why Jaden Ivey is the best pick on the board: Ivey is our No. 3 overall player in this draft for his absurd burst as a ball handler both in the half court and open floor. We are already on the record saying the Kings should draft him and figure out the fit with Fox later.

5. Detroit Pistons

Why Keegan Murray is the most likely pick on the board: Murray is reportedly a favorite among front offices, and has been projected as a lock for the top-6 since the lottery order was finalized. Teams appear to view the Iowa sophomore as a safer bet than some of the other choices on the board because of his versatile shooting and solid team defense at 6’8, 220 pounds. Everything with Detroit’s rebuild orbits around Cade Cunningham, and this would give last year’s No. 1 overall pick another potent shooter with the size to compete defensively.

Why Jalen Duren is the best pick on the board: Murray is going to have a good NBA career, but at least in my opinion he lacks the upside of a top-five pick. Duren is our No. 5 prospect because of his tremendous physicality as one of the youngest players in the draft. A 6’10, 250 pound big man with a 7’5 wingspan, Duren combines awesome power around the rim with quick enough feet on the perimeter to master multiple pick-and-roll coverages. I love the idea of pairing Cunningham with a monster athlete who can be a lob target and developing short roll playmaker on offense while captaining the defense.

6. Indiana Pacers

Why Shaedon Sharpe is the most likely pick on the board: The Pacers famously loathe the idea of tanking, and Sharpe feels like the type of prospect a team only gets by doing exactly that. Sharpe didn’t play a second at Kentucky after enrolling mid-season, but he has prototypical tools for a wing with a sky-high offensive ceiling. If the Pacers want to roll the dice on upside, Sharpe is a logical pick if he’s still on the board at No. 6.

Why Shaedon Sharpe is the best pick on the board: Sharpe’s offensive potential is too tempting to pass on after the top-five. He’s a ridiculously good vertical athlete around the rim and showed extremely impressive pull-up shot-making during his breakout summer on Nike’s EYBL circuit. Sharpe’s shot selection will likely be a work in progress and he could struggle badly on defense early in his career, but his skill set would be a great match with Tyrese Haliburton’s if he can fulfill his potential. This is a home run swing for the Pacers.

7. Portland Trail Blazers

Why Jalen Duren is the most likely pick on the board: Portland is rumored to be shopping this pick for veteran help for Damian Lillard. Duren shouldn’t drop much further than this whether the Blazers are keeping the pick or trading it. The Memphis freshman is the youngest American prospect in the draft, but already has the physicality to compete in the league with a strong frame, long arms, and quick feet. Centers who don’t shoot rarely feel like they’re worth a top-7 overall pick, but Duren is the exception because of his combination of quickness, power, and versatility in the pick-and-roll defensively.

Why AJ Griffin is the best pick on the board: Duren, Sharpe, and Griffin make up Tier 2 on our draft board because of their youth, physical tools, and upside. Griffin didn’t look as explosive as he did in high school after repeated knee injuries, but he still shot 45 percent from three-point range and has a pro-ready frame for a wing. If he can stay healthy and improve as a north-south driver, he’s going to provide a lot of value for whoever drafts him.

8. New Orleans Pelicans

Why Dyson Daniels is the most likely pick on the board: Daniels has been getting top-10 buzz after an impressive season with the G League Ignite since coming over from Australia. A 6’8 guard with a 6’11 wingspan, Daniels has the potential to be a lockdown defender who can smother smaller guards with his quick feet and agility. New Orleans could use another high-level defender in the lineup with Zion Williamson set to return, and Daniels showed enough offensive improvement in the second half of the season as a playmaker and spot-up shooter to warrant this pick.

Why Johnny Davis is the best pick on the board: Either Davis or Daniels would be a great pick for New Orleans, but we’ll give the edge to the Wisconsin sophomore here because he has more potential as a scorer. Davis carried a Wisconsin roster that lacked spacing and creation around him by developing into a tough shot-maker on pull-ups, postups, and finishes around the rim. We’re betting he’ll be a better three-point shooter when he isn’t asked to carry such a big offensive load. While Daniels gets the edge defensively, Davis is also really impressive at the point of attack and should be a plus defender in the league for a long time.

9. San Antonio Spurs

Why Bennedict Mathurin is the most likely pick on the board: Mathurin has been pegged as a likely top-10 pick all season after a breakout sophomore year at Arizona. The 6’4 guard is one of the best three-point shooters in this draft class, which would make him a nice fit next to Dejounte Murray in the backcourt. Mathurin shouldn’t be pegged as an on-ball creator early in his career, but he made strides as a playmaker late in the season and should provide additional off-ball value as a cutter. The Spurs came in No. 29 in three-point rate last season, and could use a shooter of Mathurin’s caliber.

Why Keegan Murray is the best pick on the board: Murray is unlikely to still be on the board at this point in the first round, but I’m slightly more skeptical about his upside than NBA teams seem to be. This feels like a more appropriate place in the draft for someone with his skill set. Murray is also an excellent outside shooter, and would give San Antonio some additional size up front. The Spurs would be thrilled if he was still available.

10. Washington Wizards

Why Johnny Davis is the most likely pick on the board: The Wizards need a guard, and Davis is the best one on the board. His toughness, scoring punch, and point of attack defense would give Washington a two-way guard who can complement Bradley Beal long-term or fit with plenty of different players in the future if Beal eventually moves on.

Why Dyson Daniels is the best pick on the board: We’re going with Daniels over Mathurin at this spot because the Australian’s edge in defense and playmaking makes up for Mathurin’s superior shooting. This feels like Daniels’ floor in the first round.

11. New York Knicks

Why AJ Griffin is the most likely pick on the board: Griffin appears to be a bit of a polarizing prospect in league circles, but he shouldn’t fall much further than this. He’d give the Knicks a big wing who can provide shooting immediately while learning the finer points of defense from head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Why Tari Eason is the best pick on the board: With Griffin, Daniels, and Davis all off the board, Eason feels like the best talent available for the Knicks. A 6’8 forward with long arms and huge hands, Eason has a sky-high ceiling as a switch defender who can guard out on the perimeter or wall up near the rim. His motor never stops running, and his quick hands let him turn defense into offense in a split second. The league seems to be a little lower on Eason in part because he isn’t a great shooter yet, but he brings so much else to the table that he should warrant consideration in this spot.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Why Ousmane Dieng is the most likely pick on the board: The Thunder want to select high upside players, and they’re not worried about competing any time soon as they prepare for the Victor Wembanyama derby at the top of the 2023 draft. That makes Dieng is a nice fit as a raw 6’9 wing with shot-making touch and intriguing defensive potential as his frame fills out.

Why Ousmane Dieng is the best pick on the board: Dieng isn’t quite this high on my own board, but the Thunder feel like the perfect spot for him. There will be no pressure to contribute early, and there isn’t really a player with his skill set already on the roster. After landing an immediate impact player in Holmgren at No. 2, Oklahoma City would likely be very happy to roll the dice on someone with Dieng’s talent on the wing.

13. Charlotte Hornets

Why Mark Williams is the most likely pick on the board: The Hornets desperately need help at center, and Williams should be a plug-and-play option at No. 13. His enormous 7’7 wingspan should make him a terrific lob threat for LaMelo Ball on offense, and helps make him impactful as a rim protector in drop coverage. The Hornets should be thrilled if he makes it to them, and bummed out if he doesn’t.

Why Jeremy Sochan is the best pick on the board: The Hornets had a top-10 offense last season, but finished only No. 23 in defense. Sochan is one of the best defensive prospects in this draft as a switchable defender who can cover a ton of ground on the perimeter. There’s enough shooting in Charlotte to cover for his spacing concerns, and Ball would be able to set him up for easy buckets until his shot develops.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers

Why Malaki Branham is the most likely pick on the board: Branham is an old school shooting guard who hit 40 percent of his threes and finished in the 95th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler. He would be a nice backcourt complement to Darius Garland’s creation ability, and a potential replacement for restricted free agent Collin Sexton.

Why Malaki Branham is the best pick on the board: For all the reasons listed above. Being a local product out of St. Vincent-St. Mary’s and Ohio State doesn’t hurt, either.

15. Charlotte Hornets

Why Jeremy Sochan is the most likely pick on the board: Sochan is considered a likely top-15 pick. Charlotte shouldn’t hesitate to pick him up if he’s still available here. He’s the type of high-feel defender who is a great match with Ball and can paper over some of the other shortcomings in the roster.

Why Mark Williams is the best pick on the board: Williams to Charlotte feels like one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft. His length, shot-blocking, and ability to slam lobs from LaMelo Ball would be a big boost for Charlotte’s front court.

16. Atlanta Hawks

Why TyTy Washington is the most likely pick on the board: It makes sense that Washington has been mocked to the Hawks over the last several months. Atlanta needs a secondary creator to spell Trae Young, and Washington was emerging into one of the better guards in this class before a midseason ankle injury limited his production. Washington has an excellent midrange scoring package, heady playmaking chops, and some feistiness at the point of attack defensively. Atlanta can really go in any direction with this pick, but Washington is a worthy selection.

Why Bennedict Mathurin is the best pick on the board: Mathurin will never last this long in the draft, but questions about his on-ball scoring juice and defensive versatility makes me slightly lower on him than some. His knockdown shooting and jolt of athleticism would be a great fit with a young Atlanta core if they could get him.

17. Houston Rockets

Why Ochai Agbaji is the most likely pick on the board: Agbaji has been projected from the late lottery to the late teens since emerging as the top senior in the class during his run to the national championship with Kansas. Agbaji has always been an impressive athlete, but he finally made the shooting strides (41 percent from three) the league was waiting for this past season. Houston needs some 3-and-D wings around Jalen Green and Paolo Banchero (assuming he’s the pick at No. 3), and Agbaji feels like a relatively safe projection to fill that role long-term.

Why Dalen Terry is the best pick on the board: Terry is exactly the type of player Houston would need around a Green-Banchero core. The 6’7 wing is a long and rangey defender who thrives bringing well-timed help and getting into the gaps for steals in the passing lanes. Terry is a low-usage option offensively, but he’s a good playmaker for his size and showed enough shooting potential (36.4 percent on 77 attempts) to make him a threat on open spot-ups. This is earlier in the draft than Terry is typically being projected, but he offers the right role player traits to complement the Rockets’ supercharged offensive duo.

18. Chicago Bulls

Why Tari Eason is the most likely pick on the board: Keeping in mind it’s smokescreen season, there have been rumors that NBA execs aren’t as high on Eason as originally suspected. If he does fall in the draft, this should be his floor. The LSU sophomore isn’t just the best available player on the board, he’s also a good fit for a Bulls team that could use some additional size and athleticism in the front court. At 6’8, 217 pounds with a 7’2 wingspan, Eason is going to be a highly-effective switch defender in the league who can quickly turn defense into offense by ripping the ball away from his opponents. His three-point shot needs to be sped up and he must develop his off-hand, but Eason’s combination of size, athleticism, and motor is too good to pass on at this point in the first round.

Why EJ Liddell is the best pick on the board: If Eason is off the board, the Bulls could try to replicate their success with last year’s second round pick Ayo Dosunmu by going with Liddell, another Big Ten star who has the potential to be a solid role player in the NBA. Liddell is a burly 6’7, 240 pound forward who made serious strides as a three-point shooter in his junior year (37 percent from deep) while continuing to provide dependable inside scoring punch. Defensively, Liddell is a good shot-blocker and rebounder to help Chicago fortify the paint.

19. Minnesota Timberwolves

Why Blake Wesley is the most likely pick on the board: Minnesota has a potent 1-2 punch with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, but their D’Angelo Russell experiment hasn’t been as successful as they hoped. In a draft class that lacks shot creators with burst, Wesley emerged as an unlikely one-and-done as the offensive engine of Notre Dame. Wesley can usually get anywhere he wants on the court with a killer first step, but his finishing needs improvement. So does his three-point shot. Regardless, this is a solid upside swing for the Wolves at a position of need.

Why Blake Wesley is the best pick on the board: Wesley is one of the best in this class at putting the defense into rotation. If he can learn how to finish, he’d provide great value at this point in the first round.

20. San Antonio Spurs

Why Jalen Williams is the most likely pick on the board: Williams has been sky-rocketing up draft boards after the season because of his 7’2 wingspan, smooth three-point stroke, and pick-and-roll playmaking chops. The Spurs could use a shooter after finishing No. 29 in the league in three-point rate last season, and Williams brings that and more to the wing. The question is if he’s quick enough to hang defensively and leverage his playmaking in the league, but he’s a worthy bet at No. 20.

Why Patrick Baldwin Jr. is the best pick on the board: Baldwin was considered a top-five overall recruit entering college because of his size (6’10) and knockdown shooting ability. He chose to play for his father at Milwaukee instead of taking an offer from Duke, and had a disastrous freshman year thanks to a lingering ankle injury and poor team context around him. Baldwin still has the size and shooting projection to be a natural fit in the league if he can stay healthy. He’s certainly a risky pick given his lack of durability and underwhelming production in a mid-major conference, but a team like San Antonio with four top-38 picks is in a perfect spot to roll the dice on him.

21. Denver Nuggets

Why EJ Liddell is the most likely pick on the board: The Nuggets could use a rookie ready for rotation minutes right away on a team that could challenge for an NBA Finals appearance with a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Liddell should be ready to step into a role after a standout three-year career at Ohio State that saw him improve significantly as a three-point shooter in his junior year. Liddell’s interior defense would be a nice complement to Nikola Jokic on the inside, and Jokic’s passing would help unlock Liddell’s offensive game.

Why Christian Braun is the best pick on the board: Braun is another college veteran who feels ready for spot minutes in the NBA after three years at Kansas. The wing measured at 6’7 in shoes at the combine after making nearly 38 percent of his threes across his career with the Jayhawks. Braun is also a feisty on-ball defender who plays with an emotional edge. Every team in the league needs wing depth that can stretch the floor and compete defensively, and Braun feels like one of the better bets in the late first to do just that.

22. Memphis Grizzlies

Why Patrick Baldwin Jr. is the most likely pick on the board: The Grizzlies traded up to select a tall wing with outside shooting ability last year with Ziaire Williams. Baldwin is even taller with a better shooting projection. Baldwin’s rough freshman year makes him a better bet for a team with multiple first round picks, which Memphis has. It isn’t often you can get someone who was supposed to be a top-10 pick at the start of the year this late in the draft.

Why Jalen Williams is the best pick on the board: Williams brings a ridiculous 7’2 wingspan, a 40 percent three-point stroke, and playmaking chops in the pick-and-roll to the wing. There are real questions about his lack of quickness, but Memphis has enough athletes already on the roster to protect his shortcomings.

23. Philadelphia 76ers

Why Nikola Jovic is the most likely pick on the board: There have been rumors Philly could shop this pick as a sweetener in a deal for veteran help, which makes sense. If they do keep the selection, adding an offensive talent like Jovic would be a great addition for the front court long-term. Jovic is a 6’11 Serbian forward comfortable playing out on the perimeter with a deep bag of scoring tricks. His defense will be an eyesore for the early part of his career, but the shot-making and ball handling at that size should translate.

Why Ochai Agbaji is the best pick on the board: Agbaji will likely be long gone by this pick, but his 3-and-D skill set could be a nice replacement for Danny Green after he tore his ACL.

24. Milwaukee Bucks

Why Walker Kessler is the most likely pick on the board: The Bucks know they still need to add help inside after their midseason trade for Serge Ibaka failed to yield it. Kessler would fit right in as a Brook Lopez protege for his huge frame and excellent shot blocking ability after his 19.1 percent block rate led college basketball last year. The shooting will be more difficult to develop, but Kessler did go 10-of-50 from deep last year, so there’s at least something to work with in regards to the shot.

Why Jaden Hardy is the best pick on the board: The Warriors once found the young scoring guard they needed to keep their dynasty alive late in the first round when they drafted Jordan Poole. Could Milwaukee get a similar injection of offense by taking Hardy? A former top-five recruit, Hardy was underwhelming with the G League Ignite before closing the season strong. His shot-making off the bounce is his calling card. The Bucks can always use someone capable of getting a tough halfcourt bucket.

25. San Antonio Spurs

Why MarJon Beauchamp is the most likely pick on the board: Beauchamp impressed on the G League Ignite this season to play himself into the first round with his physicality and motor. He has a long and strong frame for a wing at 6’6 with a 7-foot wingspan, and made a big impact defensively by leveraging his strength and athleticism. His jump shot will need to develop, but the defensive intensity will fit right in with San Antonio’s culture.

Why MarJon Beauchamp is the best pick on the board: Most of the picks we’ve given the Spurs in this draft have been offense-first prospects. Beauchamp represents a chance at a defensive stopper.

26. Dallas Mavericks

Why Kennedy Chandler is the most likely pick on the board: Chandler has played bigger than his size — 6-foot, 172 pounds — since he first emerged as an elite high school guard out of Tennessee. He knows how to control the tempo of a game as a floor general, hit 38 percent of his threes as a freshman with the Volunteers, and can be feisty defensively at the point of attack. Dallas could use someone to run offense when Luka Doncic needs a breather, and Chandler is one of the better lead guards in this class.

Why TyTy Washington is the best pick on the board: Washington is falling a bit on this side of the mock, and Dallas should be thrilled to pick him up if that actually happens on draft night. Washington has more size and better 1-on-1 scoring instincts than Chandler, and showed flashes of impressive facilitating skills when he was healthy. Jalen Brunson has thrived as a combo guard next to Doncic, and Washington could be effective in a similar role.

27. Miami Heat

Why Jaden Hardy is the most likely pick on the board: There’s a reason Hardy was a consensus top-five high school recruit. He has a sharp handle and solid footwork to leverage his shot-making touch that extends to NBA range. Hardy isn’t an explosive athlete going to the basket, but the Miami conditioning program has a way of getting players to hit their peak physical levels. He’d be a potential halfcourt scorer for a halfcourt offense that struggled this season.

Why Nikola Jovic is the best pick on the board: Jovic’s perimeter scoring package at 6’11 is super impressive when he’s feeling it. He needs to add strength and athleticism to his frame, and there’s no better place to do that than Miami.

28. Golden State Warriors

Why Jake LaRavia is the most likely pick on the board: LaRavia emerged as one of the better forwards in the ACC after transferring from Indiana State to Wake Forest this past season. He has good size at 6’8, 227 pounds and proved to be a capable shooter by knocking down 38 percent of his threes. LaRavia is also a good passer, and showed active hands on the defensive end. Every team needs wing depth, and he’ll be one of the prime candidates to provide it at this point in the first round.

Why Jake LaRavia is the best pick on the board: LaRavia gets branded as a shooter, but his game is much more complete than that. If anything he needs to prove he can still make shots at a high clip when he ups the volume from three after attempting only 73 triples all year.

29. Memphis Grizzlies

Why Max Christie is the most likely pick on the board: Christie had some growing pains as a freshman at Michigan State, but his skill set should transition seamlessly to an off-ball role in the NBA if he can get the shot to fall more consistently. Christie had a reputation as a big-time shooter coming out of suburban Chicago, but only hit 31 percent of his threes as a freshman with the Spartans. He shouldn’t be asked to create with the ball in his hands, but there’s a potential spot-up shooter and wing defender here as his frame fills out.

Why Max Christie is the best pick on the board: The Grizzlies could use all of the wings to complement their Ja Morant-Jaren Jackson Jr.-Desmond Bane core. Memphis hit on Bane with the No. 30 overall pick a few years back, so don’t discount their ability to find another borderline star this late again.

30. Denver Nuggets

Why Bryce McGowens is the most likely pick on the board: McGowens is a big guard who can create his own look off the bounce and has more shooting potential than his 27 percent mark from deep would suggest. Denver was way too small on the perimeter last year, and this is a flier on wing depth with some upside late in the draft.

Why Kendall Brown is the best pick on the board: Brown was getting top-10 hype mid-season as one of the very best athletes in this draft class. He’s a great leaper with tremendous open floor speed who is still learning how to leverage his physical tools. Brown’s outside shot will be his biggest swing skill, but his flashes as a passer are what makes him enticing beyond the athleticism. This is another shot at wing depth down the road.