The top five in this week's BCS standings remains unchanged and the BCS National Championship Game race remains largely static since last week. That's not to say there's no drama: with the Big East and Big Ten looking to be headed to a BCS standings tiebreaker (and maybe even the Big 12 South), there are still races that will have compelling issues in this week's standings.
#1 Oregon Ducks
Oregon continues what looks to be a successful run at the BCS National Championship Game. The Ducks are two wins away from their first national title game berth.
#2 Auburn Tigers
Auburn is two games out, with next week's game against Alabama the toughest on paper. When was the last time the SEC Championship Game looked like a trap game? Win these games, and Auburn should have the top spot.
#3 TCU Horned Frogs
Apparently I overestimated the toll last week's results would have on TCU's place in the BCS standings. I still think Boise State passes the Horned Frogs with a win over Nevada this week. TCU has one game left, against a struggling 1-10 New Mexico team.
#4 Boise St. Broncos
It will be interesting to see how much impact a win over Nevada will provide Boise State. This is almost as interesting as a related conundrum: will a loss to Boise State would eliminated Nevada from the BCS rankings?
Without Nevada on the schedule, I would be expecting LSU to pass Boise State with a win over Arkansas. The Nevada game gives me pause. This race will be close. We will have a much better picture of the actual BCS alternate seeding next week.
#5 LSU Tigers
If LSU were playing Arkansas and the SEC Championship Game they could overtake Boise State and TCU. I don't think Arkansas alone will do the trick. I guess they will have to settle on the Sugar Bowl.
That is the BCS National Championship Game picture. I will finish out the top 15 before looking at some of the conference races that might come down to the BCS standings. I discussed some rankings spots that might be particularly close and where significant gaps are likely to exist in last night's predictions.
#6 Stanford Cardinal
#7 Ohio St. Buckeyes
#8 Wisconsin Badgers
#9 Oklahoma St. Cowboys
#10 Alabama Crimson Tide
#11 Arkansas Razorbacks
#12 Michigan St. Spartans
#13 Oklahoma Sooners
#14 Missouri Tigers
#15 Virginia Tech Hokies
Conference Races
Most of the conferences are fairly concisely determined. I have given a complete outline on all these races last night. Here is a summary of the races that might fall to the BCS standings.
Ohio State looks to be the winner of the Big Ten race, barring a loss to Michigan next week, after jumping Wisconsin this week. A Michigan State loss could change things as well, giving the Badgers the outright Big Ten championship without a BCS standings tiebreaker.
The Big 12 South looks to be decided by the Oklahoma State-Oklahoma winner, as Oklahoma should win the BCS tiebreaker if both the Sooners and Texas A&M win next week.
Pittsburgh, then Connecticut, then West Virginia are the leaders in the Big East race. Syracuse has not yet been mathematically eliminated.