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2011 Bowl Projections, Week 11: Ducks, Tigers And A Potential Mess

Remember a few weeks ago, when we were wondering how the BCS might shake out with a ton of undefeated teams? Good times. Now, we're looking at a different kind of bowl game chaos.

ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 03:  LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks runs the ball against the LSU Tigers at Cowboys Stadium on September 3, 2011 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 03: LaMichael James #21 of the Oregon Ducks runs the ball against the LSU Tigers at Cowboys Stadium on September 3, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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Using this week's momentum ratings as a guide once again, let's look at how the bowls might take shape if the hotter teams stay hot and the colder teams stay cold. As you'll see below, we have a situation. The Momentum Rankings lead us to the following turn of events:

  • Oregon beats Stanford by one in Palo Alto, then beats Arizona State to win the Pac-12.
  • Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State by two in Stillwater to win the Big 12. (And no, there is no "They don't have Ryan Broyles anymore" penalty. Broyles is almost certainly worth two points, but we won't worry about that just yet.)
  • LSU beats a chilly Arkansas team and holds off Georgia, Alabama wins out, Boise State and Houston win out.

Think about what that means for a moment. You've, then, got LSU in the national title game versus ... who, exactly?

An 11-1 Alabama squad that just lost at home to LSU and didn't win their own conference?

A 12-1 Oregon that lost to LSU in Dallas in September?

Oklahoma, a preseason favorite who hasn't lost to LSU ... but lost at home to a Texas Tech team that basically called it a season on the bus out of Norman, a la the Camp Northstar basketball team against Camp Mohawk?

An undefeated Boise State team that isn't as strong as previous iterations but might have better timing?

An undefeated Houston squad? Okay, no, not this one. But 11-1 Stanford? Maybe 12-1 Virginia Tech?

We may be getting the chaos scenario playoff opponents were aiming for, but with only a couple of undefeated teams involved.

For the scenario below, I say Oregon makes the national title game, but it really could be a tossup, not only because of how the computers will react to the above chain of events, but also because of how the humans will manipulate their votes, as we know they will do. We could see a three-way logjam between the Tide, Ducks and Broyles-less Sooners. Have fun with that.

(And no, I am not going to comment on anything regarding Penn State here. They are now projected to hold off Wisconsin to win their division and Michigan State to win the conference, but they've got bigger, more disgusting, more depressing issues on their plate right now.)

Date Bowl Team Team
17-Dec Gildan New Mexico Wyoming (7-5) Ball State (6-6)
17-Dec Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Toledo (8-4) Utah State (7-5)
17-Dec R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl SMU (8-4) Arkansas State (10-2)
20-Dec Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Rutgers (7-5) Southern Miss (11-2)
21-Dec SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl San Diego State (8-4) Nevada (8-4)
22-Dec Maaco Bowl Las Vegas TCU (9-3) California (6-6)
24-Dec Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl Hawaii (8-5) Marshall (6-6)
26-Dec Advocare Independence Bowl Air Force (8-4) Wake Forest (7-5)
27-Dec Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Iowa (6-6) Ohio (9-4)
27-Dec Belk Bowl North Carolina (7-5) South Florida (8-4)
28-Dec Military Bowl Miami (6-6) Northwestern (6-6)
28-Dec Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl Missouri (7-5) Utah (8-4)
29-Dec Champs Sports Bowl Florida State (9-3) Notre Dame (8-4)
29-Dec Valero Alamo Bowl Texas A&M (8-4) Arizona State (9-4)
30-Dec Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl BYU (8-4) Central Florida (6-6)
30-Dec New Era Pinstripe Bowl Temple (8-4) West Virginia (7-5)
30-Dec Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Virginia (7-5) Mississippi State (6-6)
30-Dec Insight Bowl Baylor (7-5) Nebraska (8-4)
31-Dec Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Texas (7-5) Ohio State (7-5)
31-Dec Hyundai Sun Bowl Georgia Tech (8-4) Washington (8-4)
31-Dec AutoZone Liberty Bowl Houston (13-0) Purdue (6-6)
31-Dec Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl N.C. State (6-6) UCLA (6-6)
31-Dec Chick-fil-A Bowl Auburn (7-5) Clemson (10-3)
2-Jan TicketCity Bowl Illinois (7-5) Tulsa (8-4)
2-Jan Outback Bowl Michigan State (10-3) Georgia (10-3)
2-Jan Capital One Bowl Wisconsin (10-2) South Carolina (10-2)
2-Jan Progressive Gator Bowl Michigan (10-2) Florida (6-6)
6-Jan AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic Kansas State (8-4) Arkansas (10-2)
7-Jan BBVA Compass Bowl Louisville (7-5) Vanderbilt (6-6)
8-Jan Bowl Northern Illinois (10-3) UL-Lafayette (8-4)
2-Jan Rose Bowl Penn State (11-2) Stanford (11-1)
2-Jan Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (11-1) Cincinnati (11-1)
3-Jan Allstate Sugar Bowl Alabama (11-1) Boise State (12-0)
4-Jan Discover Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (12-1) Oklahoma State (11-1)
9-Jan Allstate BCS National Championship Game LSU (13-0) Oregon (12-1)