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2012 Advanced NFL Power Rankings: Bears under the radar in Week 7

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The Atlanta Falcons have taken over the top spot in the Power Rankings from the Houston Texans. Do they deserve to be there?

By John Crean
/ new
Mike Ehrmann

This week, it's becoming obvious that the subjective rankers are relying too much on record more than anything else when evaluating a team's ranking. The Atlanta Falcons are your consensus number-1 team, using the subjective rankings as a guide. However, six of the eight Objective rankers have the Chicago Bears as the number 1 team. Seventy-five percent of the various stats-based rankings agree that the Chicago Bears are the best team in the NFL right now, whereas the subjective rankings find them to be about the 5th-best team. Flying under the radar a little bit?

Division Averages

Division Avg Ranking
NFC North 10.1447
NFC West 11.4079
NFC East 12.7500
AFC East 17.2763
AFC North 17.5395
NFC South 18.6184
AFC South 22.0526
AFC West 22.2105

Still not looking good for the AFC here. Though, the AFC North has climbed above the NFC South a little bit.

Stock Rising

Team Week 6 Average Week 7 Average Difference
SEA 15.546 8.364 7.182
GB 11.727 7.000 4.727
WAS 19.818 15.364 4.454
DEN 15.000 10.636 4.364
NYG 7.364 3.091 4.273


Stock Falling

Team Week 6 Average Week 7 Average Difference
IND 20.818 25.546 -4.728
STL 15.909 20.182 -4.273
ARI 9.546 13.818 -4.272
PIT 9.818 13.909 -4.091
CIN 14.909 18.727 -3.818


Subjective Average

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Average Change since last period
Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 1.091 Rising
Giants 3 5 5 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 2 3.091 4.273 Rising
Ravens 4 2 2 6 2 2 3 6 2 4 3 3.273 1.000 Rising
Texans 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 4 3.455 -2.455 Falling
Bears 6 4 3 7 6 4 5 4 5 6 6 5.091 0.818 Rising
49ers 5 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 5.546 -2.637 Falling
Packers 8 6 9 3 7 9 7 7 7 7 7 7.000 4.727 Rising
Patriots 7 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8.273 -3.273 Falling
Seahawks 9 8 7 10 8 7 9 8 8 9 9 8.364 7.182 Rising
Broncos 12 13 10 9 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10.636 4.364 Rising
Vikings 10 12 11 15 10 11 11 10 10 12 11 11.182 -2.546 Falling
Eagles 13 15 14 12 13 14 12 14 12 16 12 13.364 -2.182 Falling
Cardinals 11 16 12 21 12 12 13 15 15 11 14 13.818 -4.272 Falling
Steelers 14 14 13 13 15 13 14 13 16 13 15 13.909 -4.091 Falling
Redskins 15 11 20 18 16 16 16 17 13 14 13 15.364 4.454 Rising
Chargers 16 20 17 11 19 19 15 12 14 15 16 15.818 -1.818 Falling
Dolphins 17 21 15 26 14 20 20 16 19 20 17 18.636 2.819 Rising
Bengals 21 19 18 16 21 18 18 20 17 18 20 18.727 -3.818 Falling
Cowboys 18 10 19 17 23 25 17 22 22 17 19 19.000 -2.364 Falling
Lions 19 17 22 14 22 21 22 19 21 19 18 19.455 2.363 Rising
Jets 23 18 23 22 17 17 19 18 18 22 21 19.818 3.909 Rising
Rams 20 23 16 20 18 15 21 21 25 21 22 20.182 -4.273 Falling
Bills 25 25 21 24 20 27 23 24 20 24 24 23.364 2.545 Rising
Buccaneers 22 24 24 25 25 24 25 23 23 23 25 23.909 -0.091 Falling
Saints 24 22 25 19 26 23 24 25 27 26 23 24.000 -0.636 Falling
Colts 26 26 26 27 24 22 26 26 24 28 26 25.546 -4.728 Falling
Titans 27 28 27 23 27 26 27 27 26 27 27 26.546 3.090 Rising
Panthers 28 27 31 28 29 28 28 28 28 25 28 28.000 -1.182 Falling
Raiders 29 30 29 29 30 29 29 29 31 29 29 29.364 -0.818 Falling
Browns 30 29 28 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 29.546 2.090 Rising
Jaguars 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 29 32 32 31.364 -0.364 Falling
Chiefs 32 31 30 31 32 32 32 31 32 31 31 31.364 -3.182 Falling

Observations:

  • Last week, Houston was the consensus number-1 team. With the Texans losing their first game this week and the Falcons remaining undefeated, it was pretty much a guarantee that the Falcons would supplant the Texans atop the leader-board.
  • Interesting that the Patriots are still ranked above the Seahawks. Some rankers have them swapped, but on average, the Patriots are still ranked higher (albeit barely).
  • The Chargers only dropped about 1.8 spots on average this week in the subjective rankings. Was that enough? Probably not. I mean, did you see that game?
  • Denver climbed more in the rankings than San Diego fell.
  • What little hope there still was in Kansas City seems to have been dashed.
  • The Browns finally won a game, that means they're no longer in the cellar!

Subjective Standard Deviation

Subjective
ESPN Fox CBS USA Today Sports Illustrated ProFootballTalk NFL.com Pro Football Weekly SB Nation Reddit Associated Press Standard Deviation Change since last period
Falcons 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.000 -0.288 Falling
Patriots 7 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 0.617 0.191 Rising
Raiders 29 30 29 29 30 29 29 29 31 29 29 0.643 -0.433 Falling
Chiefs 32 31 30 31 32 32 32 31 32 31 31 0.643 -1.053 Falling
49ers 5 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 0.656 0.368 Rising
Browns 30 29 28 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 30 0.782 0.139 Rising
Jaguars 31 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 29 32 32 0.881 0.142 Rising
Seahawks 9 8 7 10 8 7 9 8 8 9 9 0.881 -0.107 Falling
Texans 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 4 0.891 0.891 Rising
Steelers 14 14 13 13 15 13 14 13 16 13 15 0.996 -0.117 Falling
Buccaneers 22 24 24 25 25 24 25 23 23 23 25 0.996 -0.589 Falling
Broncos 12 13 10 9 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 1.068 -1.526 Falling
Giants 3 5 5 2 3 3 2 2 4 3 2 1.083 -0.284 Falling
Bears 6 4 3 7 6 4 5 4 5 6 6 1.164 0.371 Rising
Titans 27 28 27 23 27 26 27 27 26 27 27 1.233 0.007 Rising
Eagles 13 15 14 12 13 14 12 14 12 16 12 1.298 0.106 Rising
Panthers 28 27 31 28 29 28 28 28 28 25 28 1.348 0.156 Rising
Vikings 10 12 11 15 10 11 11 10 10 12 11 1.403 -0.091 Falling
Ravens 4 2 2 6 2 2 3 6 2 4 3 1.483 0.866 Rising
Packers 8 6 9 3 7 9 7 7 7 7 7 1.537 -0.326 Falling
Bengals 21 19 18 16 21 18 18 20 17 18 20 1.543 -0.338 Falling
Colts 26 26 26 27 24 22 26 26 24 28 26 1.559 -0.649 Falling
Bills 25 25 21 24 20 27 23 24 20 24 24 2.101 -0.008 Falling
Saints 24 22 25 19 26 23 24 25 27 26 23 2.132 -0.054 Falling
Jets 23 18 23 22 17 17 19 18 18 22 21 2.289 0.579 Rising
Lions 19 17 22 14 22 21 22 19 21 19 18 2.388 0.692 Rising
Redskins 15 11 20 18 16 16 16 17 13 14 13 2.422 1.486 Rising
Chargers 16 20 17 11 19 19 15 12 14 15 16 2.724 1.129 Rising
Rams 20 23 16 20 18 15 21 21 25 21 22 2.790 -0.147 Falling
Cardinals 11 16 12 21 12 12 13 15 15 11 14 2.790 1.119 Rising
Dolphins 17 21 15 26 14 20 20 16 19 20 17 3.199 1.051 Rising
Cowboys 18 10 19 17 23 25 17 22 22 17 19 3.861 2.038 Rising

Observations:

  • It happened to the 49ers, then the Texans, are the Falcons the next to be knocked out of the top spot? Probably not this week, as you can't lose during your bye.
  • Brian Billick has the Cowboys at number 10. Someone send an ambulance to his house, stat! He needs to be checked out.
  • The Dolphins are difficult for people to figure out. Are they good? Are they bad? Do we not care about them and just stick them in some open spot?

Objective Average

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Average Change since last period
Bears 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.625 1.500 Rising
49ers 5 2 6 2 6 4 3 8 4.500 -1.625 Falling
Giants 2 5 3 3 14 5 2 2 4.500 7.750 Rising
Texans 9 3 4 4 10 2 6 4 5.250 -2.875 Falling
Packers 1 7 7 7 9 10 5 5 6.375 6.500 Rising
Falcons 7 10 2 8 8 6 9 3 6.625 -2.250 Falling
Patriots 4 18 8 5 12 3 4 15 8.625 -2.625 Falling
Seahawks 8 12 5 10 4 14 7 10 8.750 3.375 Rising
Ravens 10 17 9 6 7 8 10 7 9.250 -0.875 Falling
Broncos 6 1 13 9 19 17 8 6 9.875 1.500 Rising
Vikings 11 16 11 11 5 12 16 9 11.375 -4.000 Falling
Rams 22 11 10 24 3 19 11 13 14.125 0.500 Rising
Redskins 13 15 17 17 18 11 15 11 14.625 5.500 Rising
Dolphins 12 8 14 22 13 13 17 18 14.625 -2.250 Falling
Cowboys 18 9 15 15 11 22 12 19 15.125 1.625 Rising
Cardinals 23 25 12 16 2 15 14 14 15.125 -3.875 Falling
Buccaneers 14 22 24 19 25 7 13 12 17.000 7.000 Rising
Eagles 21 13 20 14 15 18 19 16 17.000 -3.000 Falling
Lions 17 14 19 21 27 9 18 21 18.250 -1.000 Falling
Jets 15 23 18 20 17 23 21 20 19.625 2.625 Rising
Steelers 16 21 23 12 30 16 23 17 19.750 -3.000 Falling
Bengals 24 20 21 23 16 26 24 22 22.000 -3.000 Falling
Chargers 25 26 27 13 22 20 22 26 22.625 -5.750 Falling
Panthers 20 6 28 29 29 25 20 24 22.625 1.375 Rising
Saints 19 30 31 18 32 21 25 23 24.875 -0.625 Falling
Bills 27 28 16 27 20 28 28 25 24.875 2.125 Rising
Browns 29 24 26 25 24 24 26 27 25.625 2.500 Rising
Colts 28 27 22 26 21 32 27 29 26.500 -5.125 Falling
Raiders 26 19 30 30 28 27 29 28 27.125 1.125 Rising
Titans 30 29 25 28 26 31 31 31 28.875 -0.250 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 29 31 23 29 30 30 29.375 -0.375 Falling
Chiefs 31 32 32 32 31 30 32 32 31.500 -2.500 Falling

Observations:

  • I mentioned it earlier, but see the Bears ranking? Top team in the NFL based on stats, and it's not even that close.
  • Yep, the Chiefs are that terrible.
  • Once again, the AFC shows its futility as they occupy the bottom 7 spots in the Objective rankings. Nearly half the conference is stuck at the bottom of the list.
  • Of the top 20 teams in the NFL ranked "objectively", the AFC occupies just 6 of those spots. It's really quite sad for the AFC. A lot of people like to point to "parity" in the NFL. Maybe there's parity within conferences, but not so much between the conferences.

Objective Standard Deviation

Objective
Football Outsiders Team Efficiency Team Rankings Sagarin BeatGraphs Aikman Efficiency Pro Football Reference Cold Hard Football Facts Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 31 32 32 32 31 30 32 32 0.707 -0.793 Falling
Bears 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.111 -0.341 Falling
Browns 29 24 26 25 24 24 26 27 1.654 -0.434 Falling
49ers 5 2 6 2 6 4 3 8 2.000 -0.522 Falling
Titans 30 29 25 28 26 31 31 31 2.204 -1.185 Falling
Redskins 13 15 17 17 18 11 15 11 2.546 -0.025 Falling
Packers 1 7 7 7 9 10 5 5 2.595 -3.049 Falling
Jaguars 32 31 29 31 23 29 30 30 2.595 -0.189 Falling
Falcons 7 10 2 8 8 6 9 3 2.643 1.532 Rising
Jets 15 23 18 20 17 23 21 20 2.643 -2.643 Falling
Texans 9 3 4 4 10 2 6 4 2.681 1.272 Rising
Eagles 21 13 20 14 15 18 19 16 2.739 -1.198 Falling
Bengals 24 20 21 23 16 26 24 22 2.872 -1.221 Falling
Seahawks 8 12 5 10 4 14 7 10 3.192 -0.759 Falling
Ravens 10 17 9 6 7 8 10 7 3.231 0.998 Rising
Raiders 26 19 30 30 28 27 29 28 3.333 0.606 Rising
Vikings 11 16 11 11 5 12 16 9 3.352 1.776 Rising
Colts 28 27 22 26 21 32 27 29 3.354 -0.549 Falling
Giants 2 5 3 3 14 5 2 2 3.775 -1.942 Falling
Dolphins 12 8 14 22 13 13 17 18 3.998 -0.062 Falling
Cowboys 18 9 15 15 11 22 12 19 4.106 0.615 Rising
Bills 27 28 16 27 20 28 28 25 4.196 2.538 Rising
Chargers 25 26 27 13 22 20 22 26 4.299 1.680 Rising
Lions 17 14 19 21 27 9 18 21 4.969 0.102 Rising
Saints 19 30 31 18 32 21 25 23 5.183 -0.311 Falling
Steelers 16 21 23 12 30 16 23 17 5.286 0.765 Rising
Patriots 4 18 8 5 12 3 4 15 5.337 1.663 Rising
Broncos 6 1 13 9 19 17 8 6 5.667 0.619 Rising
Buccaneers 14 22 24 19 25 7 13 12 6.042 0.190 Rising
Rams 22 11 10 24 3 19 11 13 6.566 -0.609 Falling
Cardinals 23 25 12 16 2 15 14 14 6.566 0.032 Rising
Panthers 20 6 28 29 29 25 20 24 7.140 0.875 Rising

Observations:

  • Yup, the Chiefs are consistently bad.
  • Bears: consistently good.
  • Browns: consistently mediocre.
  • If it weren't for Sagarin, the Chargers would be consistently ranked down in the 20's.
  • The guy(s) at Team Efficiency even admitted their rankings don't make much sense this week. Broncos 1st? Panthers 6th? Okay...

Overall Average

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Average Change since last period
Bears 5.091 1.625 3.358 1.159 Rising
Giants 3.091 4.500 3.795 6.012 Rising
Falcons 1.000 6.625 3.813 -0.580 Falling
Texans 3.455 5.250 4.352 -2.664 Falling
49ers 5.546 4.500 5.023 -2.131 Falling
Ravens 3.273 9.250 6.261 0.063 Rising
Packers 7.000 6.375 6.688 5.613 Rising
Patriots 8.273 8.625 8.449 -2.949 Falling
Seahawks 8.364 8.750 8.557 5.278 Rising
Broncos 10.636 9.875 10.256 2.932 Rising
Vikings 11.182 11.375 11.278 -3.272 Falling
Cardinals 13.818 15.125 14.472 -4.074 Falling
Redskins 15.364 14.625 14.994 4.978 Rising
Eagles 13.364 17.000 15.182 -2.591 Falling
Dolphins 18.636 14.625 16.631 0.284 Rising
Steelers 13.909 19.750 16.830 -3.546 Falling
Cowboys 19.000 15.125 17.063 -0.370 Falling
Rams 20.182 14.125 17.153 -1.886 Falling
Lions 19.455 18.250 18.852 0.682 Rising
Chargers 15.818 22.625 19.222 -3.784 Falling
Jets 19.818 19.625 19.722 3.267 Rising
Bengals 18.727 22.000 20.364 -3.409 Falling
Buccaneers 23.909 17.000 20.455 3.454 Rising
Bills 23.364 24.875 24.119 2.336 Rising
Saints 24.000 24.875 24.438 -0.631 Falling
Panthers 28.000 22.625 25.313 0.096 Rising
Colts 25.546 26.500 26.023 -4.926 Falling
Browns 29.546 25.625 27.585 2.296 Rising
Titans 26.546 28.875 27.710 1.421 Rising
Raiders 29.364 27.125 28.244 0.154 Rising
Jaguars 31.364 29.375 30.369 -0.369 Falling
Chiefs 31.364 31.500 31.432 -2.841 Falling

Observations

  • The Bears now jump to the top spot overall, just edging out the Giants and Falcons; it's close though.
  • Wow, looks like there are clear division leaders in the AFC: Texans, Ravens, Patriots and Broncos. Even though there's a 4-way tie in the AFC East, the Patriots' nearest rival (Miami) is nearly 8 spots away.
  • Much like last year, Philadelphia was hyped up and have underperformed as the Eagles continue to slide down the rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chiefs 31.364 31.500 0.674 -0.992 Falling
49ers 5.546 4.500 1.483 -0.168 Falling
Bears 5.091 1.625 2.057 0.285 Rising
Jaguars 31.364 29.375 2.061 -0.073 Falling
Titans 26.546 28.875 2.061 -0.379 Falling
Texans 3.455 5.250 2.067 0.928 Rising
Packers 7.000 6.375 2.073 -1.895 Falling
Seahawks 8.364 8.750 2.185 -0.976 Falling
Browns 29.546 25.625 2.292 0.038 Rising
Vikings 11.182 11.375 2.425 0.774 Rising
Jets 19.818 19.625 2.446 -1.294 Falling
Raiders 29.364 27.125 2.478 0.523 Rising
Redskins 15.364 14.625 2.502 0.682 Rising
Colts 25.546 26.500 2.523 -0.529 Falling
Giants 3.091 4.500 2.677 -1.869 Falling
Eagles 13.364 17.000 2.712 -0.335 Falling
Bengals 18.727 22.000 2.732 -0.898 Falling
Bills 23.364 24.875 3.244 1.238 Rising
Falcons 1.000 6.625 3.264 1.908 Rising
Patriots 8.273 8.625 3.499 1.043 Rising
Lions 19.455 18.250 3.748 -0.342 Falling
Saints 24.000 24.875 3.759 -0.199 Falling
Broncos 10.636 9.875 3.784 -0.438 Falling
Ravens 3.273 9.250 3.792 1.258 Rising
Dolphins 18.636 14.625 4.071 -1.379 Falling
Cowboys 19.000 15.125 4.404 1.747 Rising
Steelers 13.909 19.750 4.545 -0.042 Falling
Cardinals 13.818 15.125 4.804 0.298 Rising
Chargers 15.818 22.625 4.835 2.310 Rising
Buccaneers 23.909 17.000 5.252 1.267 Rising
Panthers 28.000 22.625 5.437 1.045 Rising
Rams 20.182 14.125 5.622 0.419 Rising

Observations:

  • Chiefs: still consistently bad. Even I didn't expect them to be that bad this year. In fact I expected them to be good.
  • 49ers and Bears are consistently good. Shocker. NFC Championship Game, anyone?

Difference in Averages

Subj vs Obj
Subjective Average Objective Average Standard Deviation Change since last period
Chargers 15.818 22.625 6.807 3.932 Rising
Ravens 3.273 9.250 5.977 1.875 Rising
Steelers 13.909 19.750 5.841 -1.091 Rising
Falcons 1.000 6.625 5.625 3.341 Rising
Eagles 13.364 17.000 3.636 0.818 Rising
Bengals 18.727 22.000 3.273 -0.818 Rising
Titans 26.546 28.875 2.330 3.341 Rising
Texans 3.455 5.250 1.796 0.421 Rising
Bills 23.364 24.875 1.511 0.420 Rising
Giants 3.091 4.500 1.409 -3.477 Rising
Cardinals 13.818 15.125 1.307 -0.398 Rising
Colts 25.546 26.500 0.955 0.398 Rising
Saints 24.000 24.875 0.875 -0.011 Rising
Seahawks 8.364 8.750 0.386 3.807 Rising
Patriots 8.273 8.625 0.352 -0.648 Rising
Vikings 11.182 11.375 0.193 1.454 Rising
Chiefs 31.364 31.500 0.136 -0.682 Rising
Jets 19.818 19.625 -0.193 1.284 Rising
Packers 7.000 6.375 -0.625 -1.773 Rising
Redskins 15.364 14.625 -0.739 -1.046 Rising
Broncos 10.636 9.875 -0.761 2.864 Rising
49ers 5.546 4.500 -1.046 -1.012 Rising
Lions 19.455 18.250 -1.205 3.363 Rising
Jaguars 31.364 29.375 -1.989 0.011 Rising
Raiders 29.364 27.125 -2.239 -1.943 Rising
Bears 5.091 1.625 -3.466 -0.682 Rising
Cowboys 19.000 15.125 -3.875 -3.989 Rising
Browns 29.546 25.625 -3.921 -0.410 Rising
Dolphins 18.636 14.625 -4.011 5.069 Rising
Panthers 28.000 22.625 -5.375 -2.557 Rising
Rams 20.182 14.125 -6.057 -4.773 Rising
Buccaneers 23.909 17.000 -6.909 -7.091 Rising

Observations:

  • Oh goody, Chargers are at the top of the "Most Overrated" list. By nearly a full spot ahead of the Ravens.
  • Wait, the Ravens are overrated? Already?
  • Steelers are still overrated a bit. They've come closer to their stats rankings, but they still have a bit more to go. Falcons too, it seems.
  • Well the Dolphins are no longer the most underrated team this week. Their difference in averages dropped by nearly 5 spots this week, by virtue of their Objective ranking falling by ~2.5 and their Subjective ranking climbing by ~2.5. Maybe they'll eventually meet in the middle.
  • Instead of the Dolphins, it's one of the other teams from Florida taking the "Most Underrated" crown: Tampa Bay.

Best Match-ups For Week 7

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference
Cleveland (27.585) at Indianapolis (26.023) Sun, Oct. 21 1:00PM EDT 1.562
Baltimore (6.261) at Houston (4.352) Sun, Oct. 21 1:00PM EDT 1.909
Jacksonville (30.369) at Oakland (28.244) Sun, Oct. 21 4:25PM EDT 2.125

Worst Match-Ups for Week 7

Opponents (Ranking) Game Time Ranking Difference
Detroit (18.852) at Chicago (3.358) Mon, Oct. 22 8:30PM EDT 15.494
NY Jets (19.722) at New England (8.449) Sun, Oct. 21 4:25PM EDT 11.273
Washington (14.994) at NY Giants (3.795) Sun, Oct. 21 1:00PM EDT 11.199


Sources

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