2012 Advanced NFL Power Rankings: Week 17

Here we are, the penultimate edition of the Power Rankings consensus post. It's been an interesting year, to say the least. We've seen the rise of the NFC as the powerhouse conference in the NFL. We've seen what were once strong teams falter this year. And we've seen the AFC West relegated to its rightful place as the "Laughing Stock" division.

Even though the Colts have actually become even more over-rated this week, I'm not going to harp on that. No, I'll leave the Colts alone this week (mostly). Instead I'd like to give the Seahawks some love.

Something baffles me about the subjective rankers. You'll see in a moment that they are almost unanimous in their agreement that the Seahawks are the fifth-best team in the NFL. In fact, some still believe that the 49ers are a better team than the Seahawks, even though Seattle completely embarrassed San Francisco and their vaunted defense.

What is it about Seattle that makes people not take them seriously? They've scored 150 points in the last three games alone. In fact, they've outscored their last three opponents -- two of which were division rivals, mind you -- by a margin of 150-30. That's just your standard five-times win margin.

Is it because of the contested game against the Packers? Will we ever know?

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	12.8194
NFC North	13.2083
NFC South	14.3056
AFC North	15.5833
NFC East	16.2639
AFC East	18.2222
AFC South	20.3472
AFC West	21.2500

The NFC East dropped quit a bit this week as a division, allowing the AFC North to jump ahead of them. No longer is the entire NFC stronger than the AFC. Awww, who am I kidding? Of course the NFC is better this year.

Stock Rising

Team	Week 16 Average	Week 17 Average	Difference
SDG	24.753	21.388	3.365
MIN	15.792	13.575	2.217
BAL	12.195	10.238	1.957
GB	6.195	4.300	1.895
STL	17.961	16.188	1.773

Hey sweet, the Chargers are at the top of this list! Wait, you mean this hurts their draft positioning? Crap.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 16 Average	Week 17 Average	Difference
NYG	9.409	12.650	-3.241
SF	2.123	4.975	-2.852
HOU	4.955	7.375	-2.420
TEN	25.234	27.013	-1.779
DAL	13.292	15.050	-1.758

40% of this list is from the NFC East.

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Broncos	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.100		0.446
Falcons	2	3	2	1	3	2	2	2	2	2		2.100		1.809
Patriots	5	2	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4		3.500		0.500
Packers	4	4	4	4	2	3	4	5	3	3		3.600		2.218
Seahawks	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5		5.200		1.800
49ers	3	6	6	6	6	7	7	4	6	6		5.700		-3.882
Texans	7	9	7	7	7	6	6	7	7	7		7.000		-3.091
Redskins	9	8	9	9	8	8	9	8	8	9		8.500		-0.409
Ravens	10	7	11	8	10	11	8	9	9	8		9.100		1.718
Bengals	11	11	8	10	12	10	10	10	12	11		10.500		1.409
Colts	8	12	10	11	9	13	12	11	10	10		10.600		0.127
Vikings	12	10	14	12	11	9	11	12	11	12		11.400		2.327
Bears	13	13	12	13	13	14	14	13	13	13		13.100		1.627
Cowboys	14	14	13	14	14	12	13	14	14	14		13.600		-1.873
Giants	15	17	15	16	15	15	15	15	15	15		15.300		-4.482
Saints	17	15	22	15	16	16	17	16	16	16		16.600		1.127
Steelers	18	16	16	17	18	17	16	17	19	17		17.100		-1.554
Rams	16	18	17	18	17	18	18	18	17	18		17.500		1.136
Dolphins	19	19	21	20	19	20	19	19	18	19		19.300		0.518
Panthers	20	20	18	19	20	19	20	20	20	20		19.600		0.673
Chargers	21	23	20	22	21	21	22	21	22	21		21.400		2.964
Buccaneers	22	22	19	21	22	24	21	23	21	22		21.700		-1.427
Browns	24	21	25	23	23	22	24	24	23	23		23.200		-0.654
Jets	23	27	24	24	25	26	23	22	26	24		24.400		-1.582
Bills	25	29	26	28	27	23	25	25	24	25		25.700		-0.427
Titans	27	26	23	25	24	25	27	29	27	26		25.900		-1.718
Cardinals	26	25	27	26	26	27	29	27	29	27		26.900		0.282
Lions	28	28	28	27	28	28	26	26	25	28		27.200		0.255
Eagles	29	24	29	29	29	29	28	28	28	29		28.200		0.346
Raiders	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30		30.000		-0.182
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		31.200		0.073
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.800		-0.073

Observations:

• Broncos are a near-unanimous pick for the top spot. Do they deserve it? I contend they do not. While a 10-game winning streak is certainly impressive, Denver has had the seventh-easiest schedule this year (according to Football Outsiders) and plays in the AFC West.
• CBS really has an axe to grind with the Saints.
• Outside of that ranking though, not too many "WTF?" moments, the board is generally in agreement with each other.
• Actually, I take that back: ESPN. Seattle just beat the 49ers handily and yet ESPN still has the 49ers as three spots higher than the Seahawks? WTF ESPN!?

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Raiders	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30	30		0.000		-0.575
Broncos	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.300		-0.482
Seahawks	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5		0.400		0.400
Jaguars	31	31	32	32	31	31	31	31	31	31		0.400		-0.045
Chiefs	32	32	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.400		-0.045
Redskins	9	8	9	9	8	8	9	8	8	9		0.500		0.212
Bears	13	13	12	13	13	14	14	13	13	13		0.539		-0.881
Falcons	2	3	2	1	3	2	2	2	2	2		0.539		-0.701
Giants	15	17	15	16	15	15	15	15	15	15		0.640		-1.258
Panthers	20	20	18	19	20	19	20	20	20	20		0.663		-1.200
Cowboys	14	14	13	14	14	12	13	14	14	14		0.663		-1.047
Rams	16	18	17	18	17	18	18	18	17	18		0.671		-0.210
Texans	7	9	7	7	7	6	6	7	7	7		0.775		-0.308
Dolphins	19	19	21	20	19	20	19	19	18	19		0.781		-1.117
Chargers	21	23	20	22	21	21	22	21	22	21		0.800		-0.498
Packers	4	4	4	4	2	3	4	5	3	3		0.800		0.225
Patriots	5	2	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	4		0.806		-0.047
Steelers	18	16	16	17	18	17	16	17	19	17		0.943		0.445
Browns	24	21	25	23	23	22	24	24	23	23		1.077		-0.799
Lions	28	28	28	27	28	28	26	26	25	28		1.077		-0.296
Bengals	11	11	8	10	12	10	10	10	12	11		1.118		-0.857
49ers	3	6	6	6	6	7	7	4	6	6		1.187		0.471
Cardinals	26	25	27	26	26	27	29	27	29	27		1.221		0.108
Buccaneers	22	22	19	21	22	24	21	23	21	22		1.269		-0.387
Vikings	12	10	14	12	11	9	11	12	11	12		1.281		-0.005
Ravens	10	7	11	8	10	11	8	9	9	8		1.300		-0.396
Colts	8	12	10	11	9	13	12	11	10	10		1.428		0.566
Eagles	29	24	29	29	29	29	28	28	28	29		1.470		0.688
Jets	23	27	24	24	25	26	23	22	26	24		1.497		-0.831
Titans	27	26	23	25	24	25	27	29	27	26		1.640		-0.840
Bills	25	29	26	28	27	23	25	25	24	25		1.735		0.079
Saints	17	15	22	15	16	16	17	16	16	16		1.908		0.198

Observations:

• Huh ... unanimous agreement with the Raiders as the third-worst team in the NFL.
• I told you the rankings were pretty consistent, right? Well, let's compare this week to Week 1:
  • Week 1: Lowest: 0.904; Highest: 3.182
  • Week 17: Lowest: 0.000; Highest: 1.908
• In fact, in Week 1, only 12 teams had a lower Standard Deviation than the team with the highest Standard Deviation in week 17. I call that "agreement"
• Interesting that the teams in the middle of the pack are actually more consistently-ranked than teams closer to the top- and bottom-10.

Objective Average

	Objective
Seahawks	1	3	2	2	5	2	1	1		2.125		1.589
Broncos	2	1	1	3	9	5	4	2		3.375		-0.232
Patriots	3	9	4	1	4	1	2	7		3.875		-0.304
49ers	5	2	5	4	3	7	3	5		4.250		-1.821
Packers	4	5	3	6	6	8	5	3		5.000		1.571
Falcons	11	6	6	5	1	4	7	4		5.500		0.643
Texans	13	7	9	8	7	3	9	6		7.750		-1.750
Bears	6	12	10	7	8	6	6	8		7.875		1.839
Redskins	8	8	8	12	11	12	11	10		10.000		-0.857
Giants	12	11	14	9	2	11	8	13		10.000		-2.000
Ravens	10	18	12	11	12	9	10	9		11.375		2.196
Bengals	7	15	13	13	17	10	14	11		12.500		0.214
Panthers	9	4	17	17	19	15	16	14		13.875		-0.446
Saints	18	16	11	14	14	13	13	17		14.500		-0.214
Rams	16	10	15	15	10	21	17	15		14.875		2.411
Vikings	19	23	7	10	18	19	12	18		15.750		2.107
Cowboys	15	17	16	16	13	20	15	20		16.500		-1.643
Steelers	17	14	21	18	23	14	19	12		17.250		-0.679
Dolphins	20	19	19	20	22	16	21	16		19.125	/td>	0.732
Buccaneers	23	20	23	19	15	17	18	24		19.875		-1.161
Lions	14	13	27	22	27	18	22	26		21.125		0.018
Chargers	21	24	20	21	20	24	20	21		21.375		3.768
Colts	26	27	18	24	16	23	26	27		23.375		-1.804
Jets	25	21	24	25	24	25	24	22		23.750		-1.607
Browns	22	25	22	26	29	22	25	23		24.250		-0.250
Cardinals	28	30	25	23	26	26	23	19		25.000		-0.286
Bills	24	22	28	27	25	31	27	25		26.125		-1.554
Eagles	27	26	29	28	28	27	28	30		27.875		0.268
Titans	31	29	26	29	21	29	29	31		28.125		-1.839
Raiders	30	28	30	30	30	28	30	28		29.250		0.464
Jaguars	29	32	31	31	31	30	31	29		30.500		0.643
Chiefs	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.875		-0.018

Observations:

• See? The Seahawks can't seem to get any respect. All but two objective rankings have them as second or better. Whereas not a single subjective site had them higher than fifth.
• 12 of the top 17 teams are in the NFC. That's 70.5% of the top 17 teams playing in the NFC.
• Colts only beat the Chiefs by one touchdown? Better drop their ranking. (Not that I disagree)
• Would you actually believe that statistically-speaking, the Chargers are a better team than the Colts?

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Chiefs	32	31	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.331		-0.019
Raiders	30	28	30	30	30	28	30	28		0.968		0.268
Jaguars	29	32	31	31	31	30	31	29		1.000		0.650
Eagles	27	26	29	28	28	27	28	30		1.166		0.041
Seahawks	1	3	2	2	5	2	1	1		1.269		-0.009
Jets	25	21	24	25	24	25	24	22		1.392		-0.708
49ers	5	2	5	4	3	7	3	5		1.479		0.751
Chargers	21	24	20	21	20	24	20	21		1.576		-0.898
Packers	4	5	3	6	6	8	5	3		1.581		-0.097
Redskins	8	8	8	12	11	12	11	10		1.658		0.825
Bears	6	12	10	7	8	6	6	8		2.027		-1.587
Dolphins	20	19	19	20	22	16	21	16		2.027		-0.823
Saints	18	16	11	14	14	13	13	17		2.179		1.149
Cowboys	15	17	16	16	13	20	15	20		2.291		-0.065
Browns	22	25	22	26	29	22	25	23		2.332		-0.446
Broncos	2	1	1	3	9	5	4	2		2.497		-0.145
Bills	24	22	28	27	25	31	27	25		2.571		0.581
Patriots	3	9	4	1	4	1	2	7		2.666		0.110
Texans	13	7	9	8	7	3	9	6		2.681		0.477
Falcons	11	6	6	5	1	4	7	4		2.693		-0.304
Ravens	10	18	12	11	12	9	10	9		2.736		-0.923
Bengals	7	15	13	13	17	10	14	11		2.916		-0.094
Buccaneers	23	20	23	19	15	17	18	24		3.018		0.768
Titans	31	29	26	29	21	29	29	31		3.059		-0.310
Cardinals	28	30	25	23	26	26	23	19		3.162		0.248
Rams	16	10	15	15	10	21	17	15		3.370		0.266
Steelers	17	14	21	18	23	14	19	12		3.527		-0.209
Giants	12	11	14	9	2	11	8	13		3.536		0.374
Colts	26	27	18	24	16	23	26	27		3.935		-2.133
Panthers	9	4	17	17	19	15	16	14		4.649		0.246
Vikings	19	23	7	10	18	19	12	18		5.093		-0.748
Lions	14	13	27	22	27	18	22	26		5.255		0.931

Observations:

• Team Rankings and BeatGraphs both dropped the Colts significantly this week, and all but one other site either kept the Colts ranking the same or dropped the Colts. So therefore, the Colts consistency actually improved this week.
• Pretty good consensus on the Seahawks being that good.
• The top three teams with the lowest deviation are in the AFC, top three teams with highest deviation are in the NFC.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Broncos	1.100	3.375		2.238		0.106
Seahawks	5.200	2.125		3.663		1.694
Patriots	3.500	3.875		3.688		0.098
Falcons	2.100	5.500		3.800		1.226
Packers	3.600	5.000		4.300		1.895
49ers	5.700	4.250		4.975		-2.852
Texans	7.000	7.750		7.375		-2.420
Redskins	8.500	10.000		9.250		-0.633
Ravens	9.100	11.375		10.238		1.957
Bears	13.100	7.875		10.488		1.733
Bengals	10.500	12.500		11.500		0.812
Giants	15.300	10.000		12.650		-3.241
Vikings	11.400	15.750		13.575		2.217
Cowboys	13.600	16.500		15.050		-1.758
Saints	16.600	14.500		15.550		0.457
Rams	17.500	14.875		16.188		1.773
Panthers	19.600	13.875		16.738		0.113
Colts	10.600	23.375		16.988		-0.839
Steelers	17.100	17.250		17.175		-1.117
Dolphins	19.300	19.125		19.213		0.625
Buccaneers	21.700	19.875		20.788		-1.294
Chargers	21.400	21.375		21.388		3.365
Browns	23.200	24.250		23.725		-0.452
Jets	24.400	23.750		24.075		-1.594
Lions	27.200	21.125		24.163		0.136
Bills	25.700	26.125		25.913		-0.991
Cardinals	26.900	25.000		25.950		-0.002
Titans	25.900	28.125		27.013		-1.779
Eagles	28.200	27.875		28.038		0.306
Raiders	30.000	29.250		29.625		0.141
Jaguars	31.200	30.500		30.850		0.358
Chiefs	31.800	31.875		31.838		-0.046

Observations:

• Overall, the Broncos retain the top spot.
• Seahawks are just barely ahead of the Patriots.
• Again, 12 of the top 17 teams are from the NFC. That only leaves four NFC teams in the remaining bottom 15 teams. I don't know that I've ever seen that much disparity.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Chiefs	31.800	31.875		0.373		-0.043
Raiders	30.000	29.250		0.745		0.116
Jaguars	31.200	30.500		0.809		0.393
Chargers	21.400	21.375		1.208		-0.678
Eagles	28.200	27.875		1.353		0.402
Redskins	8.500	10.000		1.384		0.620
Packers	3.600	5.000		1.397		0.200
Dolphins	19.300	19.125		1.474		-0.841
Jets	24.400	23.750		1.487		-0.779
49ers	5.700	4.250		1.508		0.728
Seahawks	5.200	2.125		1.772		-0.017
Browns	23.200	24.250		1.826		-0.552
Patriots	3.500	3.875		1.886		0.146
Texans	7.000	7.750		1.915		0.006
Broncos	1.100	3.375		2.025		0.103
Bills	25.700	26.125		2.157		0.331
Cowboys	13.600	16.500		2.157		-0.348
Saints	16.600	14.500		2.285		0.045
Bengals	10.500	12.500		2.337		-0.125
Ravens	9.100	11.375		2.354		-0.607
Buccaneers	21.700	19.875		2.401		0.346
Steelers	17.100	17.250		2.455		0.040
Cardinals	26.900	25.000		2.483		0.136
Falcons	2.100	5.500		2.498		0.128
Titans	25.900	28.125		2.622		-0.415
Rams	17.500	14.875		2.646		0.489
Bears	13.100	7.875		2.954		-0.551
Giants	15.300	10.000		3.566		0.741
Vikings	11.400	15.750		4.137		-0.145
Panthers	19.600	13.875		4.236		-0.324
Lions	27.200	21.125		4.693		0.463
Colts	10.600	23.375		6.951		0.415

Observations:

• Wow, overall, the Chiefs, Raiders, Jaguars and Chargers are very consistent in their rankings.
• The bottom five teams are significantly less consistent in their rankings than the rest of the league.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Colts	10.600	23.375		12.775		1.931
Vikings	11.400	15.750		4.350		0.220
Falcons	2.100	5.500		3.400		1.166
Cowboys	13.600	16.500		2.900		-0.230
Broncos	1.100	3.375		2.275		0.678
Ravens	9.100	11.375		2.275		-0.478
Titans	25.900	28.125		2.225		0.121
Bengals	10.500	12.500		2.000		1.195
Redskins	8.500	10.000		1.500		0.448
Packers	3.600	5.000		1.400		0.647
Browns	23.200	24.250		1.050		-0.405
Texans	7.000	7.750		0.750		-1.341
Bills	25.700	26.125		0.425		1.126
Patriots	3.500	3.875		0.375		0.804
Steelers	17.100	17.250		0.150		-0.876
Chiefs	31.800	31.875		0.075		-0.055
Chargers	21.400	21.375		-0.025		-0.804
Dolphins	19.300	19.125		-0.175		-0.214
Eagles	28.200	27.875		-0.325		0.078
Jets	24.400	23.750		-0.650		0.025
Jaguars	31.200	30.500		-0.700		-0.570
Raiders	30.000	29.250		-0.750		-0.646
49ers	5.700	4.250		-1.450		-2.060
Buccaneers	21.700	19.875		-1.825		-0.267
Cardinals	26.900	25.000		-1.900		0.568
Saints	16.600	14.500		-2.100		1.342
Rams	17.500	14.875		-2.625		-1.274
Seahawks	5.200	2.125		-3.075		0.211
Bears	13.100	7.875		-5.225		-0.212
Giants	15.300	10.000		-5.300		-2.482
Panthers	19.600	13.875		-5.725		1.119
Lions	27.200	21.125		-6.075		0.237

Observations:

• The Colts rose in the subjective rankings, and fell in the objective rankings. Therefore, their over-ranking got even worse.
• The Vikings, while being the second-most over-ranked team, still have a third of the disparity the Colts do.
• San Diego is very consistently not good. Their Subjective and Objective rankings are within 1/40th of a spot within each other.
• Crazy: the 10 most under-ranked teams are all NFC teams.
• The Seahawks are definitely under-ranked here, but it's not historically bad nor is it comparatively that bad. The Bears, Giants, Panthers and Lions are getting even less respect.

Best Match-ups for Week 17

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Carolina (16.738) at New Orleans (15.550)	Sun, Dec. 30 1:00 p.m. EST	1.188
Baltimore (10.238) at Cincinnati (11.500)	Sun, Dec. 30 1:00 p.m. EST	1.262
NY Jets (24.075) at Buffalo (25.913)	Sun, Dec. 30 1:00 p.m. EST	1.838

Worst Match-Ups for Week 17

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Kansas City (31.838) at Denver (2.238)	Sun, Dec. 30 4:25 p.m. EST	29.600
Arizona (25.950) at San Francisco (4.975)	Sun, Dec. 30 4:25 p.m. EST	20.975

Some definite clunkers this week, which naturally means we'll see two huge upsets (probably not).

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Aikman Efficiency
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts