NFL Power Rankings Consensus, Week 7: The West is the best

After years of East Coast dominance, the West Coast now takes the top spot in the NFL. The AFC West and NFC West are the two best divisions in the NFL on average.

By John Crean@creanium Oct 17, 2013, 4:46pm EDT

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This has certainly been an odd season all around. What we all thought we know has turned out to not be true. I won't break things down individually until next week, but it's safe to say that nobody expected the Giants to be as bad as they are. Nor was anyone expecting the Chiefs to turn into the powerhouse they are. If it weren't for Denver's historically great offense this year, we might all be talking about how nobody can stop the Chiefs.

On a more macro level, the NFC was expected to be the dominant conference again this year. By Week 2 this year, all four NFC divisions were ranked higher than all four AFC divisions on average. The AFC East was supposed to be the division in the cellar, with the AFC West not far behind. Now the West is dominating the NFL, thanks to the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders all being better than expected.

Division Averages

Division	Week 7 Average	Week 6 Average	Difference
AFC West	11.5568	12.8295	1.2727
NFC West	12.7159	14.1705	1.4546
NFC North	14.3977	14.2045	-0.1932
AFC East	16.9432	15.4205	-1.5227
AFC North	17.3636	16.4432	-0.9204
NFC South	18.3182	18.6477	0.3295
AFC South	19.6705	17.3182	-2.3523
NFC East	21.0341	22.9659	1.9318

Notice anything different about the Division Averages table? Yeah, I've added in last week's ranking and the differences. What does this tell us now? Well, the AFC West is getting stronger (You're welcome, AFC West. Signed, The Chargers). Also, the NFC South has now leapfrogged the AFC South. It wasn't all that long ago when the West was the laughingstock of the NFL. Who's laughing now?

Stock Rising

Team	Week 6 Average	Week 7 Average	Difference
SDG	21.150	15.875	5.275
STL	26.708	21.450	5.258
CAR	21.650	16.925	4.725
PHI	20.125	15.642	4.483
DAL	15.783	12.433	3.350

On Twitter, I put the Over/Under of the Chargers' rise in the rankings this week at seven spots. Should have bet on the Under.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 6 Average	Week 7 Average	Difference
HOU	18.517	23.575	-5.058
NYJ	18.192	22.683	-4.491
MIN	23.817	27.858	-4.041
CLE	15.758	19.650	-3.892
BAL	11.000	13.433	-2.433

When I put the O/U on the Chargers' rise at seven spots, I also put the Colts' fall at three spots. Again, they came in under. However, there was a point before all the rankings were available and in, and I had like six or seven Objective Rankings loaded and the Chargers had risen exactly 7.000 spots in the Objective Rankings, and the Colts fell 3.000.

The Texans continue their free fall this week. They fell over five spots last week as well, so now they're over 10 spots below where they were two weeks ago. Ouch.

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000	0.083
Chiefs	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	4	2	3	5	2.583	1.334
Seahawks	4	3	3	2	4	3	5	4	2	3	2	3	3.167	0.666
Saints	3	5	5	5	3	5	4	3	3	5	5	2	4.000	-2.083
Patriots	5	4	4	4	6	4	3	5	6	4	4	6	4.583	1.917
49ers	7	6	7	6	5	7	7	6	8	7	6	7	6.583	0.250
Colts	6	7	6	8	9	6	6	9	5	6	7	11	7.167	-2.667
Packers	9	8	9	7	7	8	9	7	9	8	8	4	7.750	0.750
Bengals	8	10	8	11	8	13	8	10	7	9	9	8	9.083	0.000
Bears	10	11	10	10	10	10	11	8	10	10	11	10	10.083	0.917
Lions	11	9	11	9	11	9	10	11	14	11	10	12	10.667	1.083
Cowboys	13	12	14	12	12	15	14	12	12	14	13	9	12.667	2.000
Ravens	12	13	12	13	15	11	15	13	11	12	12	13	12.667	-2.667
Dolphins	14	14	13	14	13	12	12	15	13	13	14	14	13.417	-0.250
Chargers	15	16	22	17	16	16	13	16	19	15	15	15	16.250	4.250
Titans	16	15	17	15	17	19	16	19	15	16	17	16	16.500	-1.500
Eagles	17	17	15	18	18	14	18	14	17	17	16	18	16.583	5.167
Browns	18	18	24	20	20	17	19	17	21	18	21	21	19.500	-2.583
Rams	19	24	16	16	14	18	20	21	22	21	19	24	19.500	4.417
Jets	20	19	18	27	19	20	17	20	20	20	20	22	20.167	-3.084
Cardinals	21	21	21	19	22	21	21	22	23	19	18	25	21.083	-1.750
Texans	22	20	20	22	28	25	23	18	16	22	25	20	21.750	-4.917
Panthers	24	26	19	21	21	23	22	23	24	23	22	19	22.250	4.250
Falcons	23	25	23	23	23	26	25	26	18	24	24	17	23.083	-1.333
Bills	25	22	28	24	27	24	26	25	26	25	23	26	25.083	-0.416
Raiders	26	29	27	25	24	22	24	24	29	26	27	28	25.917	-2.500
Steelers	27	23	25	26	25	29	29	27	27	28	26	23	26.250	2.750
Redskins	28	28	29	28	26	27	27	28	28	27	28	29	27.750	-1.417
Vikings	29	27	26	29	29	28	28	29	25	29	29	27	27.917	-2.584
Giants	31	31	30	30	31	31	31	32	30	30	30	30	30.583	0.084
Buccaneers	30	32	31	31	30	30	30	30	32	31	31	31	30.750	-0.417
Jaguars	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	31	31	32	32	32	31.667	0.250

Observations:

Broncos are finally a unanimous top pick in the Subjective Rankings. Way to get in line, Sporting News.
Chiefs have leapfrogged the Seahawks and Saints. Frankly, I think the Chiefs are more balanced than the Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have a historically good offense right now, but their defense is very weak and exploitable. But that's just one guy's opinion.
Saints are still ranked above the Patriots, but not by much.
CBS is still down on the Chargers. NFL.com seems a little too high.
For once, ESPN seems to be closest to the consensus.
The Jaguars are no longer the consensus worst team in the league according to pundits. A couple sites think it's the Buccaneers, but Football Outsiders begs to differ as it's found Tampa Bay to be "the best 0-5 team in DVOA history."

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.000	-0.276
Jaguars	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	31	31	32	32	32	0.624	0.348
Giants	31	31	30	30	31	31	31	32	30	30	30	30	0.640	0.016
Buccaneers	30	32	31	31	30	30	30	30	32	31	31	31	0.722	0.098
Bears	10	11	10	10	10	10	11	8	10	10	11	10	0.759	-0.058
49ers	7	6	7	6	5	7	7	6	8	7	6	7	0.759	-0.139
Redskins	28	28	29	28	26	27	27	28	28	27	28	29	0.829	-0.871
Dolphins	14	14	13	14	13	12	12	15	13	13	14	14	0.862	-0.418
Seahawks	4	3	3	2	4	3	5	4	2	3	2	3	0.898	0.000
Patriots	5	4	4	4	6	4	3	5	6	4	4	6	0.954	0.454
Chiefs	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	4	2	3	5	0.954	0.195
Saints	3	5	5	5	3	5	4	3	3	5	5	2	1.080	0.804
Ravens	12	13	12	13	15	11	15	13	11	12	12	13	1.247	-0.436
Vikings	29	27	26	29	29	28	28	29	25	29	29	27	1.320	-1.273
Titans	16	15	17	15	17	19	16	19	15	16	17	16	1.323	0.410
Packers	9	8	9	7	7	8	9	7	9	8	8	4	1.362	-0.081
Lions	11	9	11	9	11	9	10	11	14	11	10	12	1.374	-0.160
Eagles	17	17	15	18	18	14	18	14	17	17	16	18	1.441	-0.198
Cowboys	13	12	14	12	12	15	14	12	12	14	13	9	1.491	-0.936
Bills	25	22	28	24	27	24	26	25	26	25	23	26	1.605	0.171
Bengals	8	10	8	11	8	13	8	10	7	9	9	8	1.605	-0.196
Colts	6	7	6	8	9	6	6	9	5	6	7	11	1.675	0.417
Cardinals	21	21	21	19	22	21	21	22	23	19	18	25	1.801	-0.040
Steelers	27	23	25	26	25	29	29	27	27	28	26	23	1.920	1.512
Panthers	24	26	19	21	21	23	22	23	24	23	22	19	1.963	0.408
Browns	18	18	24	20	20	17	19	17	21	18	21	21	1.979	0.273
Raiders	26	29	27	25	24	22	24	24	29	26	27	28	2.100	-0.591
Chargers	15	16	22	17	16	16	13	16	19	15	15	15	2.203	-0.014
Jets	20	19	18	27	19	20	17	20	20	20	20	22	2.375	0.669
Falcons	23	25	23	23	23	26	25	26	18	24	24	17	2.722	0.234
Rams	19	24	16	16	14	18	20	21	22	21	19	24	3.014	0.836
Texans	22	20	20	22	28	25	23	18	16	22	25	20	3.139	0.530

Observations:

Consensus at the extremes, variance in the middle.
The Texans are a team in turmoil and flux and are difficult to pin down.
Chargers are difficult to pin down as well, but only a couple sites have trouble. Most sites actually have the Chargers 16-17.
Even though the Seahawks have moved a bit this week, their Standard Deviation remained the same.

Objective Average

	Objective

Broncos	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	6	1	2	1.800	0.000
Seahawks	2	1	5	3	7	3	3	1	3	1	2.900	0.400
Saints	4	5	4	2	1	8	5	4	4	3	4.000	-0.700
Chiefs	3	9	2	6	9	2	2	3	2	4	4.200	0.800
Colts	5	4	10	9	6	5	4	2	8	7	6.000	-2.000
Packers	7	7	3	4	11	17	6	11	5	8	7.900	1.400
49ers	10	6	7	7	8	15	8	8	7	6	8.200	0.500
Lions	12	11	8	12	14	6	10	7	9	10	9.900	2.000
Patriots	13	22	6	5	19	9	12	9	6	5	10.600	-1.100
Bengals	9	8	9	11	17	13	17	10	11	9	11.400	0.400
Panthers	8	10	21	14	15	4	7	5	18	14	11.600	5.200
Cowboys	11	13	11	8	12	18	9	12	13	15	12.200	4.700
Bears	6	14	16	15	18	7	20	13	14	11	13.400	0.200
Ravens	23	28	12	10	3	12	14	16	12	12	14.200	-2.200
Dolphins	25	23	13	13	4	16	11	18	10	13	14.600	-1.600
Eagles	15	3	17	19	13	10	18	15	17	20	14.700	3.800
Chargers	16	12	14	16	5	22	13	23	16	18	15.500	6.300
Cardinals	17	19	15	20	10	20	16	21	15	17	17.000	1.500
Titans	20	21	18	17	26	11	15	14	19	16	17.700	-3.300
Browns	24	15	19	21	16	23	22	19	20	19	19.800	-5.200
Falcons	19	24	28	18	20	27	21	17	23	22	21.900	0.500
Bills	14	25	24	24	32	14	25	20	26	24	22.800	-2.600
Rams	26	32	20	22	22	19	24	27	21	21	23.400	6.100
Redskins	30	26	23	23	21	25	23	22	25	26	24.400	0.400
Jets	18	16	26	28	30	24	29	29	27	25	25.200	-5.900
Raiders	28	29	22	30	23	26	19	26	22	28	25.300	0.300
Texans	29	20	25	26	25	28	30	24	24	23	25.400	-5.200
Steelers	21	18	27	25	29	30	28	28	29	29	26.400	1.900
Buccaneers	22	30	30	29	31	21	26	25	31	31	27.600	-2.600
Vikings	27	27	29	27	27	29	27	30	28	27	27.800	-5.500
Giants	31	17	31	31	24	31	31	31	30	30	28.700	1.100
Jaguars	32	31	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	31.500	0.400

Observations:

Chargers climbed more in the Objective Rankings than the Subjective. Most likely thanks to the strength of the last opponent.
In Objective average, the Broncos haven't moved at all this week.
Chiefs passed the Colts and are close to passing the Saints.
Interesting that Team Efficiency has the Giants at 17th.
19 teams saw their average improve this week
Nearly three full spots separate the Giants from the Jaguars

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Vikings	27	27	29	27	27	29	27	30	28	27	1.077	-1.788
Jaguars	32	31	32	32	28	32	32	32	32	32	1.204	0.904
Broncos	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	6	1	2	1.470	0.221
Saints	4	5	4	2	1	8	5	4	4	3	1.789	-0.214
Seahawks	2	1	5	3	7	3	3	1	3	1	1.814	0.545
Lions	12	11	8	12	14	6	10	7	9	10	2.343	-0.357
Colts	5	4	10	9	6	5	4	2	8	7	2.366	1.271
Redskins	30	26	23	23	21	25	23	22	25	26	2.458	-0.024
49ers	10	6	7	7	8	15	8	8	7	6	2.522	0.675
Chiefs	3	9	2	6	9	2	2	3	2	4	2.676	-0.117
Browns	24	15	19	21	16	23	22	19	20	19	2.713	-1.511
Cowboys	11	13	11	8	12	18	9	12	13	15	2.713	-2.587
Texans	29	20	25	26	25	28	30	24	24	23	2.836	-1.676
Cardinals	17	19	15	20	10	20	16	21	15	17	3.098	-1.446
Bengals	9	8	9	11	17	13	17	10	11	9	3.105	0.078
Raiders	28	29	22	30	23	26	19	26	22	28	3.437	0.709
Falcons	19	24	28	18	20	27	21	17	23	22	3.477	-0.078
Buccaneers	22	30	30	29	31	21	26	25	31	31	3.639	-0.811
Steelers	21	18	27	25	29	30	28	28	29	29	3.747	0.745
Rams	26	32	20	22	22	19	24	27	21	21	3.747	2.941
Packers	7	7	3	4	11	17	6	11	5	8	3.936	0.036
Titans	20	21	18	17	26	11	15	14	19	16	3.951	0.598
Bears	6	14	16	15	18	7	20	13	14	11	4.200	0.145
Giants	31	17	31	31	24	31	31	31	30	30	4.406	0.461
Jets	18	16	26	28	30	24	29	29	27	25	4.490	-0.307
Eagles	15	3	17	19	13	10	18	15	17	20	4.797	-1.795
Chargers	16	12	14	16	5	22	13	23	16	18	4.863	0.794
Bills	14	25	24	24	32	14	25	20	26	24	5.212	-0.207
Panthers	8	10	21	14	15	4	7	5	18	14	5.389	-1.211
Patriots	13	22	6	5	19	9	12	9	6	5	5.643	0.780
Dolphins	25	23	13	13	4	16	11	18	10	13	5.886	-1.042
Ravens	23	28	12	10	3	12	14	16	12	12	6.585	-1.276

Observations:

Ravens are still the least consistently–ranked team this week. Though they're improving. Unfortunately for the Ravens it's because all their rankings are going down.
Chargers' ranking consistency got worse this week.
Dolphins rank anywhere from 4th to 25th. Ravens 3rd to 28th. Can't wait to see a team be simultaneously ranked 1st and 32nd

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Broncos	1.000	1.800	1.400	0.042
Seahawks	3.167	2.900	3.033	0.534
Chiefs	2.583	4.200	3.392	1.066
Saints	4.000	4.000	4.000	-1.392
Colts	7.167	6.000	6.583	-2.333
49ers	6.583	8.200	7.392	0.375
Patriots	4.583	10.600	7.592	0.408
Packers	7.750	7.900	7.825	1.075
Bengals	9.083	11.400	10.242	0.200
Lions	10.667	9.900	10.283	1.542
Bears	10.083	13.400	11.742	0.558
Cowboys	12.667	12.200	12.433	3.350
Ravens	12.667	14.200	13.433	-2.433
Dolphins	13.417	14.600	14.008	-0.925
Eagles	16.583	14.700	15.642	4.483
Chargers	16.250	15.500	15.875	5.275
Panthers	22.250	11.600	16.925	4.725
Titans	16.500	17.700	17.100	-2.400
Cardinals	21.083	17.000	19.042	-0.125
Browns	19.500	19.800	19.650	-3.892
Rams	19.500	23.400	21.450	5.258
Falcons	23.083	21.900	22.492	-0.417
Jets	20.167	25.200	22.683	-4.491
Texans	21.750	25.400	23.575	-5.058
Bills	25.083	22.800	23.942	-1.509
Raiders	25.917	25.300	25.608	-1.100
Redskins	27.750	24.400	26.075	-0.508
Steelers	26.250	26.400	26.325	2.325
Vikings	27.917	27.800	27.858	-4.041
Buccaneers	30.750	27.600	29.175	-1.508
Giants	30.583	28.700	29.642	0.591
Jaguars	31.667	31.500	31.583	0.325

Observations:

Broncos retain the top spot, and by a significant margin.
Chiefs challenging the Seahawks.
NFC teams now have a 7-to-5 advantage in the top 12.
The bottom 12 is evenly split between AFC and NFC teams.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Jaguars	31.667	31.500	0.937	0.649
Broncos	1.000	1.800	1.068	0.131
Vikings	27.917	27.800	1.217	-1.894
Seahawks	3.167	2.900	1.397	0.283
Saints	4.000	4.000	1.446	-0.083
Lions	10.667	9.900	1.916	-0.230
49ers	6.583	8.200	1.963	0.274
Chiefs	2.583	4.200	2.097	0.060
Colts	7.167	6.000	2.101	0.888
Cowboys	12.667	12.200	2.148	-2.001
Browns	19.500	19.800	2.346	-0.975
Redskins	27.750	24.400	2.430	0.203
Bengals	9.083	11.400	2.668	-0.118
Raiders	25.917	25.300	2.805	-0.113
Packers	7.750	7.900	2.839	-0.026
Steelers	26.250	26.400	2.898	0.822
Titans	16.500	17.700	2.900	0.522
Buccaneers	30.750	27.600	2.960	-1.073
Falcons	23.083	21.900	3.144	0.107
Giants	30.583	28.700	3.151	0.418
Cardinals	21.083	17.000	3.204	-0.173
Bears	10.083	13.400	3.326	0.242
Texans	21.750	25.400	3.512	-0.460
Eagles	16.583	14.700	3.531	-1.351
Chargers	16.250	15.500	3.679	0.419
Bills	25.083	22.800	3.879	-0.527
Rams	19.500	23.400	3.887	0.629
Dolphins	13.417	14.600	4.062	-0.704
Jets	20.167	25.200	4.304	0.662
Ravens	12.667	14.200	4.598	-0.936
Patriots	4.583	10.600	4.893	1.271
Panthers	22.250	11.600	6.590	-0.077

Observations:

It's not often when the Patriots are at the bottom of the Standard Deviation list. The models of consistency have been anything but this year.
6 of the 10 most consistently ranked teams are in the NFC. 7 of the 10 least consistently ranked teams are in the AFC.
The Steelers and Packers both have Objective and Subjective rankings that are only 0.150 apart, yet their Standard Deviation is near 3.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Patriots	4.583	10.600	6.017	3.017
Jets	20.167	25.200	5.033	2.816
Rams	19.500	23.400	3.900	-1.683
Texans	21.750	25.400	3.650	0.283
Bears	10.083	13.400	3.317	0.717
Bengals	9.083	11.400	2.317	-0.400
49ers	6.583	8.200	1.617	-0.250
Chiefs	2.583	4.200	1.617	0.534
Ravens	12.667	14.200	1.533	-0.467
Titans	16.500	17.700	1.200	1.800
Dolphins	13.417	14.600	1.183	1.350
Broncos	1.000	1.800	0.800	0.083
Browns	19.500	19.800	0.300	2.617
Packers	7.750	7.900	0.150	-0.650
Steelers	26.250	26.400	0.150	0.850
Saints	4.000	4.000	0.000	-1.383
Vikings	27.917	27.800	-0.117	2.916
Jaguars	31.667	31.500	-0.167	-0.150
Seahawks	3.167	2.900	-0.267	0.266
Cowboys	12.667	12.200	-0.467	-2.700
Raiders	25.917	25.300	-0.617	-2.800
Chargers	16.250	15.500	-0.750	-2.050
Lions	10.667	9.900	-0.767	-0.917
Colts	7.167	6.000	-1.167	-0.667
Falcons	23.083	21.900	-1.183	-1.833
Giants	30.583	28.700	-1.883	-1.016
Eagles	16.583	14.700	-1.883	1.367
Bills	25.083	22.800	-2.283	2.184
Buccaneers	30.750	27.600	-3.150	2.183
Redskins	27.750	24.400	-3.350	-1.817
Cardinals	21.083	17.000	-4.083	-3.250
Panthers	22.250	11.600	-10.650	-0.950

Observations:

The Patriots overrated? Say it ain't so!
Carolina will probably always be under-ranked this year.
8 of the 10 most "under-ranked" teams are in the NFC.

Best Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Bengals (10.242) at Lions (10.283)	Sun, Oct 20, 2013 1:00 PM EDT	0.041
Vikings (27.858) at Giants (29.642)	Mon, Oct 21, 2013 8:40 PM EDT	0.979
Cowboys (12.433) at Eagles (15.642)	Sun, Oct 20, 2013 1:00 PM EDT	3.209

I don't think we've ever had a matchup as close as the Bengals/Lions matchup.

Worst Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Texans (23.575) at Chiefs (3.392)	Sun, Oct 20, 2013 12:00 PM CDT	20.183
Seahawks (3.033) at Cardinals (19.042)	Thu, Oct 17, 2013 5:25 PM PDT	16.009
Chargers (15.875) at Jaguars (31.583)	Sun, Oct 20, 2013 1:00 PM EDT	15.708