2013 NFL power rankings consensus, Week 5: AFC West is best

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A quarter of the way through the season, we're starting to get a clearer picture on just where teams stack up in the league.

By John Crean@creanium Oct 3, 2013, 4:56pm EDT

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A quarter of the season is already done. It feels like the season just started -- no way we're already 25% done! Okay, hissy fit over. We've had a few surprises, both good and bad, as well as teams being just what we expected.

What do we know about the NFL so far? We know that all the preseason analysis and conjecture is for naught. The Chiefs were ranked 22nd to start the season, Redskins 11th, Saints 12th and Titans 26th. I'm not going to do a big comparison of the season. That'll come around Week 8 or 9 when I look at the rankings for that week compared to the rankings from Week 1 just to see who the biggest surprises are and the biggest disappointments.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
AFC West	12.9875
AFC East	13.6000
NFC North	15.0375
AFC South	15.6250
NFC West	15.7750
NFC South	16.2250
AFC North	19.1500
NFC East	23.6000

The AFC West is now the highest-ranked division in the NFL, with the NFC East now the weakest. I bet nobody saw that coming. The difference between the NFC East (8th) and the AFC North (7th) is wider than the gap separating the AFC West (1st) and the NFC West (5th).

Stock Rising

Team	Week 4 Average	Week 5 Average	Difference
TEN	18.278	11.146	7.132
CLE	23.778	18.354	5.424
SDG	20.375	15.083	5.292
DET	16.250	11.188	5.062
KC	10.014	5.896	4.118

Stock Falling

Team	Week 4 Average	Week 5 Average	Difference
CIN	10.111	16.063	-5.952
NYJ	16.583	21.188	-4.605
CHI	7.944	12.292	-4.348
BAL	9.694	13.979	-4.285
DAL	12.722	16.792	-4.070

Remember how I like to view the "Objective vs. Subjective" table as kind of a "Most Overrated" and "Most Underrated" teams list? It doesn't always work out that way — it's not a steadfast rule by any means — but this week it does correlate. Cincinnati and Chicago were the two most "overranked" teams last week.

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1.083	0.250
Seahawks	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	1.917	-0.250
Saints	3	4	4	3	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3.333	0.500
Patriots	4	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	3.667	0.583
Chiefs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	8	5	5	6	5.417	2.833
Colts	6	9	6	9	6	6	6	10	7	6	6	10	7.250	4.167
Bears	9	7	10	7	10	8	9	8	5	7	9	8	8.083	-3.416
49ers	8	11	7	6	7	11	10	5	13	8	7	7	8.333	3.917
Lions	10	6	9	10	8	7	7	9	14	11	8	12	9.250	6.583
Dolphins	7	10	8	8	12	9	8	14	11	9	10	15	10.083	-2.083
Packers	12	13	16	11	11	13	12	7	12	10	11	5	11.083	0.167
Bengals	11	12	12	14	13	15	11	13	6	13	15	9	12.000	-5.333
Texans	15	8	15	13	14	16	16	11	10	12	12	14	13.000	-1.833
Ravens	14	15	14	12	16	10	15	12	9	14	16	13	13.333	-4.833
Titans	13	14	11	16	9	12	13	15	15	15	13	18	13.667	3.000
Chargers	17	16	17	17	15	17	17	17	17	17	14	16	16.417	2.666
Cowboys	18	17	13	15	17	21	18	16	18	18	17	11	16.583	-3.916
Falcons	16	18	18	18	19	22	19	18	16	16	18	17	17.917	-3.250
Browns	20	19	21	21	18	14	21	19	21	19	19	20	19.333	6.334
Bills	23	20	22	20	20	18	14	20	23	20	20	22	20.167	3.583
Panthers	21	23	23	19	25	20	20	21	20	21	21	19	21.083	-0.250
Cardinals	19	25	19	22	23	19	22	25	24	23	22	24	22.250	0.917
Jets	22	21	20	27	26	25	24	26	19	24	23	25	23.500	-3.333
Eagles	27	22	25	24	28	23	23	22	25	22	26	21	24.000	-3.583
Vikings	24	26	24	26	21	26	26	27	22	27	25	23	24.750	3.250
Rams	26	24	27	23	22	24	27	24	26	26	27	26	25.167	-4.000
Redskins	25	27	26	25	24	27	25	23	27	25	24	27	25.417	1.416
Steelers	29	29	29	28	29	30	29	29	29	30	28	29	29.000	-1.750
Raiders	28	31	28	31	27	28	30	30	30	28	29	30	29.167	-0.417
Giants	30	28	30	30	31	29	31	28	28	29	30	28	29.333	-1.916
Buccaneers	31	30	31	29	30	31	28	31	31	31	31	31	30.417	0.000
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32.000	0.000

Observations:

SPORTING NEWS, YOU HAD ONE JOB! If it weren't for SN, the Broncos and Seahawks would be a unanimous 1-2.
A number of fans like to keep discounting the Patriots, saying they haven't looked good at all this year. Don't tell that to the rankers.
Two teams from the AFC West make up the top five.
We're back to parity in the top 12: Six teams from each the NFC and AFC.
Interesting how the Chargers, with their terrible defense, were able to hold the Cowboys scoreless for three quarters, and yet some rankers still have the Cowboys higher. Am I just an annoyed homer? Probably.
Mike Florio over at Pro Football Talk really wants to believe in the Browns, huh?
Same story at NFL.com with the Bills. It wasn't that long ago when pundits were sure the Bills were the fourth-worst team in the league.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	0.000	0.000
Seahawks	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	2	2	0.276	-0.195
Broncos	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	0.276	-0.195
Saints	3	4	4	3	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	0.471	-0.427
Patriots	4	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	0.471	-0.693
Steelers	29	29	29	28	29	30	29	29	29	30	28	29	0.577	-1.343
Chiefs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	8	5	5	6	0.862	-0.777
Chargers	17	16	17	17	15	17	17	17	17	17	14	16	0.954	0.092
Buccaneers	31	30	31	29	30	31	28	31	31	31	31	31	0.954	-0.233
Giants	30	28	30	30	31	29	31	28	28	29	30	28	1.106	-0.871
Raiders	28	31	28	31	27	28	30	30	30	28	29	30	1.280	-1.208
Redskins	25	27	26	25	24	27	25	23	27	25	24	27	1.320	-0.755
Bears	9	7	10	7	10	8	9	8	5	7	9	8	1.382	0.276
Falcons	16	18	18	18	19	22	19	18	16	16	18	17	1.605	0.426
Rams	26	24	27	23	22	24	27	24	26	26	27	26	1.625	0.053
Colts	6	9	6	9	6	6	6	10	7	6	6	10	1.639	-0.252
Panthers	21	23	23	19	25	20	20	21	20	21	21	19	1.706	-0.066
Vikings	24	26	24	26	21	26	26	27	22	27	25	23	1.876	0.243
Browns	20	19	21	21	18	14	21	19	21	19	19	20	1.886	0.091
Eagles	27	22	25	24	28	23	23	22	25	22	26	21	2.121	0.021
Cardinals	19	25	19	22	23	19	22	25	24	23	22	24	2.126	0.175
Ravens	14	15	14	12	16	10	15	12	9	14	16	13	2.134	-0.045
Lions	10	6	9	10	8	7	7	9	14	11	8	12	2.203	1.305
49ers	8	11	7	6	7	11	10	5	13	8	7	7	2.285	-0.135
Titans	13	14	11	16	9	12	13	15	15	15	13	18	2.285	1.435
Bills	23	20	22	20	20	18	14	20	23	20	20	22	2.339	0.650
Texans	15	8	15	13	14	16	16	11	10	12	12	14	2.381	0.518
Dolphins	7	10	8	8	12	9	8	14	11	9	10	15	2.397	0.237
Jets	22	21	20	27	26	25	24	26	19	24	23	25	2.432	-0.012
Bengals	11	12	12	14	13	15	11	13	6	13	15	9	2.450	1.271
Cowboys	18	17	13	15	17	21	18	16	18	18	17	11	2.499	0.704
Packers	12	13	16	11	11	13	12	7	12	10	11	5	2.722	-0.110

Observations:

Unanimous that the Jaguars are the worst. No argument here.
Pretty good consensus of the top five teams in the league right now.
Chargers are right in the middle of the rankings, and very consistently so.
Six of the eight most consistent, and six of the eight least consistent teams are in the AFC. So apparently 1/3 of the AFC is pretty obvious, and another 1/3 is an enigma.

Objective Average

	Objective

Seahawks	2	3	1	2	3	4	2	2	2.375	0.403
Broncos	1	1	4	1	11	1	1	1	2.625	-0.958
Saints	4	2	2	4	1	6	4	4	3.375	2.292
Colts	5	6	6	5	8	5	5	7	5.875	3.903
Patriots	7	15	3	3	6	7	6	3	6.250	-1.028
Chiefs	3	8	11	8	4	2	7	8	6.375	5.403
Titans	8	9	9	9	5	9	10	10	8.625	11.264
Dolphins	19	14	5	13	2	11	8	5	9.625	-2.625
Panthers	6	12	12	10	20	3	3	14	10.000	0.667
Texans	17	7	8	15	7	15	11	9	11.125	1.319
Lions	13	4	18	11	22	10	15	12	13.125	3.542
Chargers	12	10	17	16	9	17	12	17	13.750	7.917
Ravens	23	29	7	7	14	22	9	6	14.625	-3.736
Bills	10	20	10	22	17	13	13	16	15.125	2.986
Falcons	14	11	14	17	12	27	16	19	16.250	-3.361
Bears	11	28	20	12	23	8	19	11	16.500	-5.278
Packers	9	19	23	6	27	18	18	15	16.875	-0.986
Cowboys	16	21	21	14	13	16	14	21	17.000	-4.222
Browns	24	16	16	21	15	12	17	18	17.375	4.514
49ers	18	23	15	18	10	25	20	13	17.750	0.694
Jets	20	13	13	25	18	19	21	22	18.875	-5.875
Bengals	15	18	22	19	25	20	22	20	20.125	-6.569
Eagles	26	5	27	27	21	21	25	26	22.250	0.750
Cardinals	27	22	19	24	19	26	24	23	23.000	1.889
Buccaneers	22	26	24	26	26	14	23	27	23.500	-2.722
Vikings	21	24	25	20	28	24	27	24	24.125	2.208
Redskins	28	27	29	23	29	23	28	25	26.500	2.167
Giants	31	17	28	29	24	31	29	29	27.250	-3.917
Rams	30	32	26	31	16	29	31	30	28.125	-3.347
Steelers	25	25	30	28	32	30	30	31	28.875	-1.653
Raiders	29	30	31	30	30	28	26	28	29.000	-4.556
Jaguars	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	32	31.750	-1.083

Observations:

Now using DVOA for the Football Outsiders rank.
Seahawks surpass the Broncos this week for the "Objective" top spot.
Most of this is because BeatGraphs ranks the Broncos as 11th, even though Denver is undefeated.
Despite being undefeated, Denver's wins have come against weak teams. Football Outsiders lists the Broncos as having the third-easiest schedule so far. This could account for the low BeatGraphs ranking.
Team Efficiency really likes the Eagles.
Wow, four of nine sites have the Panthers listed 10th or better.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Jaguars	32	31	32	32	31	32	32	32	0.433	-1.828
Seahawks	2	3	1	2	3	4	2	2	0.857	-1.582
Colts	5	6	6	5	8	5	5	7	1.053	-2.468
Saints	4	2	2	4	1	6	4	4	1.495	-0.665
Titans	8	9	9	9	5	9	10	10	1.495	-3.062
Raiders	29	30	31	30	30	28	26	28	1.500	-3.447
Redskins	28	27	29	23	29	23	28	25	2.345	-0.955
Steelers	25	25	30	28	32	30	30	31	2.472	-1.765
Vikings	21	24	25	20	28	24	27	24	2.522	-0.103
Cardinals	27	22	19	24	19	26	24	23	2.739	-0.739
Bengals	15	18	22	19	25	20	22	20	2.804	-3.947
Chiefs	3	8	11	8	4	2	7	8	2.870	-3.709
Chargers	12	10	17	16	9	17	12	17	3.152	0.992
Cowboys	16	21	21	14	13	16	14	21	3.240	-0.152
Broncos	1	1	4	1	11	1	1	1	3.314	2.647
Browns	24	16	16	21	15	12	17	18	3.462	-0.233
Patriots	7	15	3	3	6	7	6	3	3.700	-0.210
Texans	17	7	8	15	7	15	11	9	3.756	-1.054
Jets	20	13	13	25	18	19	21	22	3.919	-1.738
Buccaneers	22	26	24	26	26	14	23	27	3.937	-1.350
Bills	10	20	10	22	17	13	13	16	4.136	-0.659
Giants	31	17	28	29	24	31	29	29	4.380	-2.816
49ers	18	23	15	18	10	25	20	13	4.684	-1.392
Falcons	14	11	14	17	12	27	16	19	4.737	-0.081
Rams	30	32	26	31	16	29	31	30	4.885	0.836
Lions	13	4	18	11	22	10	15	12	5.061	-1.420
Dolphins	19	14	5	13	2	11	8	5	5.290	1.318
Panthers	6	12	12	10	20	3	3	14	5.454	-0.835
Packers	9	19	23	6	27	18	18	15	6.431	-1.133
Bears	11	28	20	12	23	8	19	11	6.577	-0.828
Eagles	26	5	27	27	21	21	25	26	6.906	-0.243
Ravens	23	29	7	7	14	22	9	6	8.321	0.218

Observations:

At least the Jaguars are consistent.
The Ravens are all over the board.
If you take out the Team Efficiency rating, Philadelphia is actually relatively consistent in the mid-20s.
Packers and Bears are a statistical mess.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Broncos	1.083	2.625	1.854	-0.354
Seahawks	1.917	2.375	2.146	0.076
Saints	3.333	3.375	3.354	1.396
Patriots	3.667	6.250	4.958	-0.222
Chiefs	5.417	6.375	5.896	4.118
Colts	7.250	5.875	6.563	4.034
Dolphins	10.083	9.625	9.854	-2.354
Titans	13.667	8.625	11.146	7.132
Lions	9.250	13.125	11.188	5.062
Texans	13.000	11.125	12.063	-0.257
Bears	8.083	16.500	12.292	-4.348
49ers	8.333	17.750	13.042	2.305
Ravens	13.333	14.625	13.979	-4.285
Packers	11.083	16.875	13.979	-0.410
Chargers	16.417	13.750	15.083	5.292
Panthers	21.083	10.000	15.542	0.208
Bengals	12.000	20.125	16.063	-5.952
Cowboys	16.583	17.000	16.792	-4.070
Falcons	17.917	16.250	17.083	-3.305
Bills	20.167	15.125	17.646	3.285
Browns	19.333	17.375	18.354	5.424
Jets	23.500	18.875	21.188	-4.605
Cardinals	22.250	23.000	22.625	1.403
Eagles	24.000	22.250	23.125	-1.417
Vikings	24.750	24.125	24.438	2.729
Redskins	25.417	26.500	25.958	1.792
Rams	25.167	28.125	26.646	-3.674
Buccaneers	30.417	23.500	26.958	-1.361
Giants	29.333	27.250	28.292	-2.917
Steelers	29.000	28.875	28.938	-1.702
Raiders	29.167	29.000	29.083	-2.486
Jaguars	32.000	31.750	31.875	-0.542

Observations:

The top six is pretty well defined.
Sharp delineation from Colts to Dolphins, then again from Browns to Jets.
It looks like there are only two powerhouse NFC teams so far this year.
Almost three spots separate the Raiders from the Jaguars.
Ravens and Packers have the same overall average.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Jaguars	32.000	31.750	0.300	-1.320
Seahawks	1.917	2.375	0.625	-1.101
Saints	3.333	3.375	1.014	-0.798
Raiders	29.167	29.000	1.375	-2.933
Colts	7.250	5.875	1.584	-1.247
Steelers	29.000	28.875	1.627	-1.504
Redskins	25.417	26.500	1.878	-0.942
Chiefs	5.417	6.375	1.990	-2.820
Vikings	24.750	24.125	2.179	-0.092
Broncos	1.083	2.625	2.238	1.651
Cardinals	22.250	23.000	2.418	-0.426
Chargers	16.417	13.750	2.496	0.481
Patriots	3.667	6.250	2.685	-0.064
Browns	19.333	17.375	2.801	-0.544
Cowboys	16.583	17.000	2.826	0.223
Giants	29.333	27.250	3.074	-2.265
Texans	13.000	11.125	3.144	-0.363
Titans	13.667	8.625	3.182	-0.261
Falcons	17.917	16.250	3.345	-0.048
Rams	25.167	28.125	3.637	0.226
Dolphins	10.083	9.625	3.833	0.723
Jets	23.500	18.875	3.851	-1.599
Bills	20.167	15.125	4.028	-0.362
Lions	9.250	13.125	4.094	-0.222
Buccaneers	30.417	23.500	4.269	-1.692
Eagles	24.000	22.250	4.745	-0.360
Bengals	12.000	20.125	4.753	-0.899
Packers	11.083	16.875	5.389	-0.474
Ravens	13.333	14.625	5.552	-0.127
49ers	8.333	17.750	5.761	0.417
Bears	8.083	16.500	5.954	0.061
Panthers	21.083	10.000	6.567	-0.071

Observations:

Consistency towards the extremes.
Funny how the Eagles and Ravens are at the bottom of this list when their Subjective and Objective rankings are so close to each other. Just shows the individual rankings aren't consistent.
Seven of the nine least consistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

49ers	8.333	17.750	9.417	3.223
Bears	8.083	16.500	8.417	1.861
Bengals	12.000	20.125	8.125	1.236
Packers	11.083	16.875	5.792	1.153
Lions	9.250	13.125	3.875	3.042
Rams	25.167	28.125	2.958	-0.653
Patriots	3.667	6.250	2.583	1.611
Broncos	1.083	2.625	1.542	1.209
Ravens	13.333	14.625	1.292	-1.097
Redskins	25.417	26.500	1.083	-0.750
Chiefs	5.417	6.375	0.958	-2.570
Cardinals	22.250	23.000	0.750	-0.972
Seahawks	1.917	2.375	0.458	-0.653
Cowboys	16.583	17.000	0.417	0.306
Saints	3.333	3.375	0.042	-1.791
Steelers	29.000	28.875	-0.125	-0.097
Raiders	29.167	29.000	-0.167	4.139
Jaguars	32.000	31.750	-0.250	1.083
Dolphins	10.083	9.625	-0.458	0.542
Vikings	24.750	24.125	-0.625	1.042
Colts	7.250	5.875	-1.375	0.264
Falcons	17.917	16.250	-1.667	0.111
Eagles	24.000	22.250	-1.750	-4.333
Texans	13.000	11.125	-1.875	-3.153
Browns	19.333	17.375	-1.958	1.820
Giants	29.333	27.250	-2.083	2.000
Chargers	16.417	13.750	-2.667	-5.250
Jets	23.500	18.875	-4.625	2.542
Bills	20.167	15.125	-5.042	0.597
Titans	13.667	8.625	-5.042	-8.264
Buccaneers	30.417	23.500	-6.917	2.722
Panthers	21.083	10.000	-11.083	-0.916

Observations:

The 49ers looked good this week, but apparently it wasn't as good as pundits like to think. Their "overranking" actually grew.
The 49ers, Bears and Bengals are ridiculously "overranked" and their success should be taken with a grain of salt.
Just imagine if the Panthers could put things together. They'd be scary good.

Best Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Bills (17.646) at Browns (18.354)	Thu, Oct. 3, 2013, 8:25 p.m. ET	0.069
Texans (12.063) at 49ers (13.042)	Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 8:30 p.m. ET	0.979
Lions (11.188) at Packers (13.979)	Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 1 p.m. ET	2.791

Whoever would have thought the Browns and Bills would be headlining the "Best Matchups" list? Not this guy.

Worst Matchups for Week 5

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Broncos (1.854) at Cowboys (16.792)	Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 4:25 p.m. ET	14.938
Chargers (15.083) at Raiders (29.083)	Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 11:35 p.m. ET	14.000
Patriots (4.958) at Bengals (16.063)	Sun, Oct. 6, 2013, 1 p.m. ET	11.105

I thought last week that Jacksonville would be on the "Worst Matchups" list every week, but I was wrong. I think many expected the Broncos/Cowboys and Patriots/Bengals games to be closer than the rankings indicate.