2013 NFL power rankings consensus, Week 4: Colts, Jets surging

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It was all but certain that the NFC was going to continue to be the dominant conference in 2013. The rankings indicate that's no longer the case.

By John Crean@creanium Sep 26, 2013, 2:05pm EDT

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What a year this is turning out to be. Just when it seemed like the NFC was just going to wipe the floor with the AFC, the AFC has collectively shown they aren't to be messed with. This week the NFC went just 2-6 against AFC teams. On the year, the AFC is 11-3 against the NFC in head-to-head play. Heck, the Chiefs alone are 2-0 against the NFC East so far.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
AFC East	12.6667
AFC West	14.5833
NFC South	15.3214
NFC West	15.9167
NFC North	16.0476
AFC North	17.6071
AFC South	17.9762
NFC East	21.8810

Last week, the NFC East and NFC North were the top two divisions. The AFC East and AFC West(?!) have leapfrogged bot to take the top two spots, respectively. Who would have thought to start the year that the AFC West would be so strong?

Stock Rising

Team	Week 3 Average	Week 4 Average	Difference
IND	16.917	10.597	6.320
NYJ	22.625	16.583	6.042
CAR	21.438	15.750	5.688
CLE	29.438	23.778	5.660
KC	14.542	10.014	4.528

The Colts easily took down the 49ers on Sunday, of course they shoot up. The real surprise here is the Jets. They started out the season as the laughingstock of the league; now they're surprising everyone.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 3 Average	Week 4 Average	Difference
SF	7.083	15.347	-8.264
HOU	5.688	11.806	-6.118
STL	17.875	22.972	-5.097
GB	8.521	13.569	-5.048
ATL	9.354	13.778	-4.424

The Colts were at the top of the "Stock Rising" list, and the 49ers are now at the top of the "Stock Falling" list. San Francisco is now decidedly ranked as an average team.

Also worth pointing out: Four of the five teams on the "Stock Falling" list are in the NFC, and four of the five teams in the "Stock Rising" list are in the AFC.

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Broncos	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1.333	0.000
Seahawks	1	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	1.667	0.000
Saints	3	6	4	3	3	4	4	4	5	3	4	3	3.833	3.167
Patriots	5	3	3	5	6	5	3	3	3	6	5	4	4.250	2.333
Bears	4	4	7	4	4	6	5	5	4	4	3	6	4.667	3.333
Bengals	6	5	8	6	7	7	6	8	6	5	9	7	6.667	4.000
Dolphins	7	10	5	8	5	8	7	13	9	7	7	10	8.000	4.250
Chiefs	8	7	6	7	8	9	8	11	11	10	6	8	8.250	3.333
Ravens	11	8	11	9	10	3	11	7	7	8	8	9	8.500	2.667
Texans	13	9	12	12	11	10	14	9	8	11	11	14	11.167	-6.917
Packers	12	15	15	10	9	13	10	10	13	9	14	5	11.250	-6.083
Colts	9	12	10	11	13	11	9	14	10	13	10	15	11.417	4.166
49ers	10	13	13	14	15	12	16	6	12	12	12	12	12.250	-8.833
Cowboys	15	11	9	13	12	14	12	12	15	15	13	11	12.667	1.333
Falcons	14	16	14	15	17	15	13	15	14	14	16	13	14.667	-6.334
Lions	16	14	18	16	16	16	15	16	16	16	15	16	15.833	3.167
Titans	17	17	16	17	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	16.667	3.333
Chargers	19	19	19	21	20	18	18	19	20	19	19	18	19.083	-1.583
Jets	18	18	17	20	19	24	21	23	18	22	18	24	20.167	7.083
Eagles	23	20	20	23	25	19	20	18	19	18	21	19	20.417	-2.750
Panthers	21	22	25	18	23	20	19	21	21	20	20	20	20.833	6.667
Rams	20	23	22	19	18	22	23	20	22	21	23	21	21.167	-3.167
Cardinals	22	24	21	22	21	21	24	26	25	23	22	27	23.167	-1.500
Bills	24	21	24	24	22	25	22	27	26	24	24	22	23.750	-0.417
Browns	25	26	23	27	24	26	25	28	29	27	25	23	25.667	4.583
Redskins	27	28	30	25	29	29	26	25	23	25	26	29	26.833	-2.750
Steelers	28	25	27	26	26	30	30	24	28	30	27	26	27.250	-1.167
Giants	29	29	29	28	28	27	28	22	27	28	29	25	27.417	-6.417
Vikings	26	30	28	29	30	28	27	29	24	29	28	28	28.000	-3.833
Raiders	30	31	26	31	27	23	31	30	30	26	30	30	28.750	-0.167
Buccaneers	31	27	31	30	31	31	29	31	31	31	31	31	30.417	-1.500
Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32.000	0.000

Observations:

The top 12 now consists of eight AFC teams and just four NFC teams. In Week 4 last year, the split was nine NFC to three AFC.
Broncos and Seahawks maintain their same rankings as last week. In fact, all sites ranked them the same as last week.
The Titans climbed higher than the Chargers fell.
With the Browns taking down the Vikings, they shoot up the board. Tampa Bay now takes their spot at second-worst in the NFL.
Jacksonville is playing bad and they should feel bad.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Jaguars	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	0.000	0.000
Seahawks	1	2	2	1	2	2	1	1	2	2	2	2	0.471	0.000
Broncos	2	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	0.471	0.000
Titans	17	17	16	17	14	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	0.850	-1.949
Chargers	19	19	19	21	20	18	18	19	20	19	19	18	0.862	-1.159
Saints	3	6	4	3	3	4	4	4	5	3	4	3	0.898	-0.683
Lions	16	14	18	16	16	16	15	16	16	16	15	16	0.898	-0.785
Bears	4	4	7	4	4	6	5	5	4	4	3	6	1.106	0.106
Patriots	5	3	3	5	6	5	3	3	3	6	5	4	1.164	-0.727
Falcons	14	16	14	15	17	15	13	15	14	14	16	13	1.179	0.000
Bengals	6	5	8	6	7	7	6	8	6	5	9	7	1.179	0.000
Buccaneers	31	27	31	30	31	31	29	31	31	31	31	31	1.187	-1.066
Rams	20	23	22	19	18	22	23	20	22	21	23	21	1.572	0.218
Vikings	26	30	28	29	30	28	27	29	24	29	28	28	1.633	0.420
Chiefs	8	7	6	7	8	9	8	11	11	10	6	8	1.639	0.319
Bills	24	21	24	24	22	25	22	27	26	24	24	22	1.689	-0.805
Panthers	21	22	25	18	23	20	19	21	21	20	20	20	1.772	-0.249
Browns	25	26	23	27	24	26	25	28	29	27	25	23	1.795	0.496
Cowboys	15	11	9	13	12	14	12	12	15	15	13	11	1.795	0.882
Texans	13	9	12	12	11	10	14	9	8	11	11	14	1.863	1.034
Colts	9	12	10	11	13	11	9	14	10	13	10	15	1.891	0.450
Steelers	28	25	27	26	26	30	30	24	28	30	27	26	1.920	0.073
Cardinals	22	24	21	22	21	21	24	26	25	23	22	27	1.951	-0.406
Giants	29	29	29	28	28	27	28	22	27	28	29	25	1.977	-0.762
Redskins	27	28	30	25	29	29	26	25	23	25	26	29	2.075	-0.647
Eagles	23	20	20	23	25	19	20	18	19	18	21	19	2.100	-0.185
Dolphins	7	10	5	8	5	8	7	13	9	7	7	10	2.160	0.861
Ravens	11	8	11	9	10	3	11	7	7	8	8	9	2.179	0.064
49ers	10	13	13	14	15	12	16	6	12	12	12	12	2.420	1.558
Jets	18	18	17	20	19	24	21	23	18	22	18	24	2.444	0.568
Raiders	30	31	26	31	27	23	31	30	30	26	30	30	2.488	-0.044
Packers	12	15	15	10	9	13	10	10	13	9	14	5	2.832	1.689

Observations:

Jacksonville, Seattle and Denver did not move at all
Wow, the next two most consistent teams come from smack dab in the middle of the rankings.
Other than two sites, Tennessee was almost a consensus 17th. Interesting since the Titans were the least-consistently-ranked team last week in the Subjective Rankings.
Pretty good consensus of the Chargers being right around 19th.
Same with the Lions right around 16th.
Some sites like what they see from the Raiders, while others remain unconvinced.
What's the deal with the Packers?

Objective Average

	Objective

Broncos	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	3	1.667	1.208
Seahawks	1	1	3	3	9	1	4	2	1	2.778	0.597
Patriots	4	12	5	1	6	12	2	3	2	5.222	-0.222
Saints	6	3	8	4	3	9	8	6	4	5.667	1.333
Dolphins	13	10	2	13	2	6	6	4	7	7.000	2.875
Colts	11	4	6	15	11	7	12	8	14	9.778	8.472
Panthers	5	8	16	17	22	3	3	12	10	10.667	4.708
Ravens	12	30	4	6	4	17	14	5	6	10.889	2.111
Bears	8	27	9	11	7	5	22	7	5	11.222	-1.222
Chiefs	10	9	14	27	5	4	9	11	17	11.778	5.722
Texans	17	17	7	8	8	15	21	10	9	12.444	-5.319
Cowboys	18	13	17	7	10	14	10	15	11	12.778	4.597
Falcons	9	6	12	9	12	23	13	14	18	12.889	-2.514
Jets	14	7	13	26	13	10	5	13	16	13.000	5.000
Bengals	7	19	10	12	14	13	30	9	8	13.556	-0.431
Packers	3	18	20	5	24	18	27	16	12	15.889	-4.014
Lions	16	5	24	16	26	8	20	20	15	16.667	0.458
Bills	24	16	18	24	16	19	7	19	20	18.111	-0.861
49ers	21	22	11	10	17	29	25	18	13	18.444	-7.694
Titans	25	21	15	22	15	16	29	17	19	19.889	1.611
Buccaneers	19	15	25	20	23	20	11	24	30	20.778	-1.403
Chargers	20	25	21	18	25	21	23	21	21	21.667	-3.042
Browns	27	20	19	28	19	22	16	22	24	21.889	6.736
Eagles	15	14	30	23	29	11	28	29	28	23.000	-1.625
Giants	31	11	28	14	30	31	17	25	23	23.333	-2.333
Raiders	30	23	22	31	20	27	15	23	29	24.444	3.431
Rams	28	29	23	29	18	25	18	26	27	24.778	-7.028
Cardinals	29	26	26	30	21	24	19	27	22	24.889	-4.514
Vikings	26	28	27	21	31	26	24	28	26	26.333	-2.333
Steelers	22	24	29	19	28	30	32	30	31	27.222	-1.097
Redskins	23	32	31	25	32	28	31	31	25	28.667	-4.042
Jaguars	32	31	32	32	27	32	26	32	32	30.667	0.833

Observations:

Panthers in the top 10? Well they certainly did embarrass the Giants.
Dolphins third-best team in the AFC? Apparently ...
Jaguars are once again not a consensus bottom pick in the objective rankings. Pittsburgh and Washington have also been placed in the bottom by various sites.
Despite that terrible game, the Giants only dropped 2.333 spots in the objective rankings.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Broncos	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1	3	0.667	-1.754
Saints	6	3	8	4	3	9	8	6	4	2.160	-2.583
Chargers	20	25	21	18	25	21	23	21	21	2.160	-2.366
Jaguars	32	31	32	32	27	32	26	32	32	2.261	1.261
Seahawks	1	1	3	3	9	1	4	2	1	2.439	-0.297
Vikings	26	28	27	21	31	26	24	28	26	2.625	-1.676
Redskins	23	32	31	25	32	28	31	31	25	3.300	-4.182
Cowboys	18	13	17	7	10	14	10	15	11	3.392	-2.751
Cardinals	29	26	26	30	21	24	19	27	22	3.478	-1.836
Colts	11	4	6	15	11	7	12	8	14	3.521	-2.108
Browns	27	20	19	28	19	22	16	22	24	3.695	1.407
Patriots	4	12	5	1	6	12	2	3	2	3.910	-1.475
Dolphins	13	10	2	13	2	6	6	4	7	3.972	-1.400
Rams	28	29	23	29	18	25	18	26	27	4.049	-1.400
Steelers	22	24	29	19	28	30	32	30	31	4.237	-1.646
Titans	25	21	15	22	15	16	29	17	19	4.557	1.434
Bills	24	16	18	24	16	19	7	19	20	4.795	0.058
Texans	17	17	7	8	8	15	21	10	9	4.810	0.161
Falcons	9	6	12	9	12	23	13	14	18	4.818	0.820
Raiders	30	23	22	31	20	27	15	23	29	4.947	2.056
Buccaneers	19	15	25	20	23	20	11	24	30	5.287	-2.973
Jets	14	7	13	26	13	10	5	13	16	5.657	-0.280
49ers	21	22	11	10	17	29	25	18	13	6.076	-2.595
Panthers	5	8	16	17	22	3	3	12	10	6.289	-0.566
Lions	16	5	24	16	26	8	20	20	15	6.481	1.250
Chiefs	10	9	14	27	5	4	9	11	17	6.579	-2.842
Bengals	7	19	10	12	14	13	30	9	8	6.751	2.267
Eagles	15	14	30	23	29	11	28	29	28	7.149	-0.367
Giants	31	11	28	14	30	31	17	25	23	7.196	-0.050
Bears	8	27	9	11	7	5	22	7	5	7.405	1.815
Packers	3	18	20	5	24	18	27	16	12	7.564	-0.794
Ravens	12	30	4	6	4	17	14	5	6	8.103	2.907

Observations:

Broncos, Saints, Seahawks and Cowboys all doing things consistently well.
Jaguars, Vikings and Redskins all doing things consistently not well.
Last week, the Chiefs were the least consistently ranked. This week, a lot of the sites have come up in their rankings of the Chiefs.
Packers are also inconsistent in the objective rankings

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Broncos	1.333	1.667	1.500	0.604
Seahawks	1.667	2.778	2.222	0.299
Patriots	4.250	5.222	4.736	1.056
Saints	3.833	5.667	4.750	2.250
Dolphins	8.000	7.000	7.500	3.563
Bears	4.667	11.222	7.944	1.056
Ravens	8.500	10.889	9.694	2.389
Chiefs	8.250	11.778	10.014	4.528
Bengals	6.667	13.556	10.111	1.785
Colts	11.417	9.778	10.597	6.320
Texans	11.167	12.444	11.806	-6.118
Cowboys	12.667	12.778	12.722	2.966
Packers	11.250	15.889	13.569	-5.048
Falcons	14.667	12.889	13.778	-4.424
49ers	12.250	18.444	15.347	-8.264
Panthers	20.833	10.667	15.750	5.688
Lions	15.833	16.667	16.250	1.813
Jets	20.167	13.000	16.583	6.042
Titans	16.667	19.889	18.278	2.472
Chargers	19.083	21.667	20.375	-2.312
Bills	23.750	18.111	20.931	-0.639
Eagles	20.417	23.000	21.708	-2.187
Rams	21.167	24.778	22.972	-5.097
Browns	25.667	21.889	23.778	5.660
Cardinals	23.167	24.889	24.028	-3.007
Giants	27.417	23.333	25.375	-4.375
Buccaneers	30.417	20.778	25.597	-1.451
Raiders	28.750	24.444	26.597	1.632
Vikings	28.000	26.333	27.167	-3.084
Steelers	27.250	27.222	27.236	-1.132
Redskins	26.833	28.667	27.750	-3.396
Jaguars	32.000	30.667	31.333	0.417

Observations:

Overall, the top 12 is still 9:3 AFC:NFC.
Neat, some conference clusters have developed: Five AFC teams from Ravens to Texans, then six NFC teams from Cowboys to Lions, then four AFC teams from Jets to Bills.
Broncos have actually gone up in the rankings this week.
Eagles continuing to fall back to earth

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Broncos	1.333	1.667	0.587	-1.159
Jaguars	32.000	30.667	1.620	0.942
Seahawks	1.667	2.778	1.726	-0.230
Saints	3.833	5.667	1.812	-1.428
Chargers	19.083	21.667	2.015	-1.294
Vikings	28.000	26.333	2.271	-0.608
Cowboys	12.667	12.778	2.603	-1.678
Patriots	4.250	5.222	2.749	-1.039
Redskins	26.833	28.667	2.820	-2.368
Colts	11.417	9.778	2.831	-1.122
Cardinals	23.167	24.889	2.844	-1.033
Dolphins	8.000	7.000	3.110	-0.620
Steelers	27.250	27.222	3.131	-0.855
Browns	25.667	21.889	3.345	1.411
Falcons	14.667	12.889	3.393	0.525
Rams	21.167	24.778	3.411	-0.193
Titans	16.667	19.889	3.443	0.420
Texans	11.167	12.444	3.507	0.184
Raiders	28.750	24.444	4.308	1.604
Lions	15.833	16.667	4.316	0.643
Bills	23.750	18.111	4.390	-0.257
Chiefs	8.250	11.778	4.810	-1.894
Eagles	20.417	23.000	5.105	-0.283
Giants	27.417	23.333	5.339	0.289
49ers	12.250	18.444	5.344	-1.246
Jets	20.167	13.000	5.450	-0.612
Bengals	6.667	13.556	5.652	2.438
Ravens	8.500	10.889	5.679	1.899
Packers	11.250	15.889	5.863	-0.424
Bears	4.667	11.222	5.893	2.143
Buccaneers	30.417	20.778	5.961	-1.263
Panthers	20.833	10.667	6.638	-0.881

Observations:

Broncos' ranking became even more consistent.
In fact, teams in general saw their ranking become more consistent, as 21 teams saw their Standard Deviation go down this week.
Seven of the 10 most inconsistent teams are NFC teams.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Bengals	6.667	13.556	6.889	4.431
Bears	4.667	11.222	6.556	4.556
49ers	12.250	18.444	6.194	-1.139
Packers	11.250	15.889	4.639	-2.069
Rams	21.167	24.778	3.611	3.861
Chiefs	8.250	11.778	3.528	-2.389
Titans	16.667	19.889	3.222	1.722
Chargers	19.083	21.667	2.583	1.458
Eagles	20.417	23.000	2.583	-1.125
Ravens	8.500	10.889	2.389	0.556
Saints	3.833	5.667	1.833	1.833
Redskins	26.833	28.667	1.833	1.291
Cardinals	23.167	24.889	1.722	3.014
Texans	11.167	12.444	1.278	-1.597
Seahawks	1.667	2.778	1.111	-0.597
Patriots	4.250	5.222	0.972	2.555
Lions	15.833	16.667	0.833	2.708
Broncos	1.333	1.667	0.333	-1.209
Cowboys	12.667	12.778	0.111	-3.264
Steelers	27.250	27.222	-0.028	-0.070
Dolphins	8.000	7.000	-1.000	1.375
Jaguars	32.000	30.667	-1.333	-0.833
Colts	11.417	9.778	-1.639	-4.306
Vikings	28.000	26.333	-1.667	-1.500
Falcons	14.667	12.889	-1.778	-3.820
Browns	25.667	21.889	-3.778	-2.153
Giants	27.417	23.333	-4.083	-4.083
Raiders	28.750	24.444	-4.306	-3.598
Bills	23.750	18.111	-5.639	0.444
Jets	20.167	13.000	-7.167	2.083
Buccaneers	30.417	20.778	-9.639	-0.097
Panthers	20.833	10.667	-10.167	1.958

Observations:

As down as people seem to be on the 49ers now, it seems the 49ers have a little further to fall.
Chiefs and Chargers are both slightly ranked above what their stats suggest.
Yes, the Dolphins are a top-10 team. Who saw that coming this year? Not any of the subjective rankers, most had them 18-23, with NFL.com ranking them 14th to start the season.
The Giants looked bad, yes. But they could be better than they seem.
Don't sleep on the Raiders, Bills or Jets.
As bad as Tampa Bay has seemed, the Bucs been playing a lot better than that. Unfortunately it hasn't translated into wins.
Pundits still way down on the Panthers.

Best Matchups for Week 4

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Pittsburgh (27.236) at Minnesota (27.167)	Sun, Sep. 29 1:00PM EDT	0.069
Washington (27.236) at Oakland (27.167)	Sun, Sep. 29 4:25PM EDT	1.153
Arizona (24.028) at Tampa Bay (25.597)	Sun, Sep. 29 1:00PM EDT	1.569
NY Jets (16.583) at Tennessee (18.278)	Sun, Sep. 29 4:05PM EDT	1.695

Wow, that Steelers-at-Vikings game is ridiculously close.

Worst Matchups for Week 4

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Indianapolis (10.597) at Jacksonville (31.333)	Sun, Sep. 29 1:00PM EDT	20.736
Philadelphia (21.708) at Denver (1.500)	Sun, Sep. 29 4:25PM EDT	20.208
NY Giants (25.375) at Kansas City (10.014)	Sun, Sep. 29 1:00PM EDT	15.361

I have a feeling Jacksonsville is going to be on this "Worst Matchups" list a lot this year. And I'm sure a lot of people were looking more forward to the Eagles at Broncos game after Week 1.