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NFL picks against the spread, Week 11: Considering home favorites

I'm back with my Week 11 NFL picks against the spread. We're looking at some home favorites this week.

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Welcome back for another round of my SuperContest picks. It was a solid enough performance last week, finishing 3-2, which leaves me at 27-23 on the season. I just missed out on 4-1 thanks to Buffalo coming up short against Kansas City, but that's life I suppose. My worst call last week was the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New York Jets. The sharp money was on the Jets, and I should have seen the letdown coming. But, I suppose you learn from these things.

The SuperContest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. The 3-2 performance last week has me now sitting at 27-23, and right around the middle of the pack. As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here.

Here are my picks for Week 11, with home teams in caps.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) over Houston Texans: The Browns have been much more enticing as an underdog, but as long as they keep winning they will become favorites more frequently. This marks the sixth time Cleveland has been a favorite this season, and they were 2-2-1 against the spread in the first five. They were favored in five games in 2013, and were 1-4 ATS in those five. Houston will be without Arian Foster, and given how well he has performed this season, that looks to be a big loss.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) over Philadelphia Eagles: Consider this a by-the-book pick. The Eagles are coming off a short week, and have to head out to Lambeau Field. Both teams are playing well against the spread this season, each having won five of their last six. Surprisingly, the Packers are 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games at Lambeau Field, while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. I'll stick with the short week formula.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Saints are coming off a brutal overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers. New Orleans almost had the win and the cover on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation, but offensive pass interference negated it. Look for the Saints to bounce back against a Bengals defense that is not quite on the level of the 49ers. The Saints are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games, and they should build on it in Week 11.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Seattle is an underdog for the first time since the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games, and they face a Chiefs team that is playing some strong football lately. The Chiefs have won four straight and are 7-2 ATS on the season. I expect a tough game, but this should end up a one-score affair. I think that is enough for Seattle to eek out a cover.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5) over Detroit Lions: The sharp money is on Detroit, with the Cardinals playing their first game since Carson Palmer suffered a torn ACL. However, the Cardinals are built to win without big contributions from their quarterback. They have received strong performances from Palmer this season, but the defense and run game are enough to win with Drew Stanton at the helm. I am counting on Matthew Stafford to struggle more than anything with this game.