The Seahawks and Niners were widely considered to be the two best teams in the NFC in 2013. Of course, there was no love lost between the two teams (or respective coaches), and they represented maybe the most the most bitter rivalry the NFL could produce last year. So, the way things played out once the Playoffs rolled around didn't disappoint, especially in terms of late-game dramatics (if you're unclear, I'm talking about Richard Sherman's game-winning tip to Malcolm Smith, then his infamous post-game interview).
Some -- including players on both teams -- even considered the hard-fought and amazingly close NFC Championship Game to be last year's "true" Super Bowl.
Of course, with the help of the NFL's scheduling department, along with some less-than-amazing play both both squads, the rivalry has cooled ever so slightly. Seattle and San Francisco face each other for the first time this year on Thanksgiving, and for the Niners, they'll have their chance to find out if revenge is indeed a dish best served cold (I'll let myself out).
SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE
Even if the time between games has tempered the rivalry a little bit, the NFL does know what its doing in scheduling the big-time divisional games late in the season. For this one, both the Seahawks and Niners come in at 7-4 and badly in need of wins to stay in the Playoffs picture. Both trail the Cardinals by two games, but both teams are heating up -- the Niners are winners of three in a row and the Seahawks have won four of their last five. Still, weirdly enough, both teams seems to be flying under the radar in the NFL's playoff landscape.
This is a big game.
THE GAME PLAN
For the Seahawks, I see it as a pretty simple game plan -- ride their run game. The Niners are the best at defending the pass, and an already struggling Seahawks passing game could find it hard to get much traction. They may need to rely on their foundation.
Seattle leads the NFL in rushing by a pretty wide margin at 169 yards per game, which is almost 20 yards per game more than the second-best team in Dallas, and a good 32 yards more than the third-best team in Houston. Their 5.4 yards per rush average on the year is a full half-yard better than the next best unit, Dallas, and their 14 rushing touchdowns is second only to the Chiefs (and tied with the Browns). Seattle has gotten 102 first downs via the rush -- 15 more than the second-place Ravens, have 57 runs of 10+ yards (first), 11 runs of 20+ yards (third) and have 4 runs of 40+ yards on the year (first).
If you're into advanced statistics, you might find it interesting to note that per Football Outsiders excellent DVOA metric - which measures efficiency on a per-play basis - Seattle is first in the NFL in rushing and their 32.3% DVOA mark is second all time since FO began tracking in 1989. A lot of their success, and statistical dominance, has to do with the fact that their quarterback is a major threat in that part of the offense.
Russell Wilson is currently 15th in the NFL in rushing yards with 644, and is on pace for 936 on the season. If he keeps that pace, he'll move to fourth all time (post merger), behind Michael Vick's 1039 mark in 2006, Bobby Douglass' 968 in 1972, and Randall Cunningham's 942 in 1990 for single-season rushing yards.
Wilson is picking up chunks of yards at 7.7 yards per carry, and the cool part of all this is that he's rarely getting hit while doing so -- he's savvy enough to know which run lanes to stick with to avoid big hits, smart enough to slide down rather than take on tacklers, and quick enough to get to the sidelines and out of bounds on a big chunk of them.
A lot of this is coming from read option plays where Russell Wilson keeps the ball after defenses load up to stop Marshawn Lynch ...
... but a good chunk of that yardage is coming on simple things like naked bootlegs and scrambles.
Wilson's just proven to be a resourceful runner. Of course, the main job of the quarterback is typically to be a thrower -- and Wilson's had his ups and downs there this season -- but Pete Carroll has been adamant that because of Wilson's savvy running style and good decision making, he is very happy with the production they're getting from him in that aspect. I believe he called a reporter "crazy" for suggesting the Seahawks may not want Wilson to be running that much.
The Seahawks' passing offense has always operated in harmony with their run game -- they typically run play action on more snaps than any other team and very often utilize bootlegs and sprint-outs into their schemes. This is all based on the threat of and fake to a run play, and calls for a quarterback that can throw on the run. Wilson is very good in this area.
The further development of Russell Wilson as a pocket-passing quarterback is not out his or the Seahawks' minds -- it's a frequent topic in press conferences and Wilson constantly notes that he's never looking to run first -- but threat he brings as a runner to pair with Marshawn Lynch is a very tough thing to gameplan for. As soon as teams load up to take away Lynch, Wilson kills them the other way. When they load up to take away Wilson, Lynch kills them up the middle.
The Niners are no slouch against the run, though. They're giving up 92.9 yards per game (seventh), 4.0 yards per carry (13th), and are Football Outsiders' 10th ranked rush defense by DVOA. Rookie Chris Borland has been an absolute sensation filling in for the injured Patrick Willis and Novarro Bowman, showing off incredible play recognition and instincts in the middle.
That said, run defense is not San Francisco's strongest suit right now -- that distinction belongs to their pass defense. Per DVOA, the Niners are the top pass defense in the NFL after giving up a paltry 106 passing yards to RG3 and Washington last week. San Francisco is averaging 207 opponent passing yards per game (second in the NFL), have an incredible 16 interceptions (first), and are only allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt (third). For a group that lost three starters in their secondary in Carlos Rogers, Tarrell Brown, and Dante Whitner this summer, this is seriously remarkable.
In their place, Perrish Cox has stepped up big for the Niners at corner to pair with Chris Culliver, and is joined by the exciting second year safety Eric Reid and excellent free agent acquisition Antoine Bethea. Bethea has emerged as a real game-changer in Vic Fangio's defense, easily filling in for the departed Whitner. Regardless, it seems that whoever is out there on the field for San Francisco at any given time, the Niners have not skipped a beat this season with their pass defense.
The Niners' great success in the passing game is just another reason I'd expect the Seahawks to run the ball a lot. San Francisco has proven that they have a great secondary even without much of a pass rush early in the year, the return of Aldon Smith can only help things going forward.
Aldon Smith will pair with Justin Smith to get after the passer, and this increased pass rush potency will give San Francisco's ballhawking defensive backs a real shot at picking some passes off. It will likely be pretty difficult sledding for Russell Wilson in the pass game this week, so the interesting matchup becomes San Francisco's linebackers against the potential threat of Russell Wilson running outside. Will Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite be able to corral Wilson while scraping outside in run support? Will Aldon Smith, Aaron Lynch, and Ahmad Brooks keep him contained inside? These are the things to watch.
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Bottom line -- this is going to be a great matchup. It's an NFC West grudge-match and the players haven't forgotten about the NFC Championship game. It will likely be as physical of a game as we'll see this weekend, and may play a big part in determining playoffs seeding in the NFC down the stretch.