NFL schedule 2014: How much does offseason strength of schedule matter?

The top spot on the NFL mountain has been an ever-evolving place during the last decade with eight teams winning Super Bowls in the last 10 years and no team holding the crown as Super Bowl champion for more than a year at a time. While there has been plenty of movement at the top of the food chain, the NFL evolves significantly from top-to-bottom on a year-to-year basis.

A few teams have been perennial contenders like New England and Green Bay while a few others have remained doormats, sorry Cleveland and Oakland fans. The majority of the league, however, fluctuates from season-to-season. The Seattle Seahawks are currently at the top of the league, but were just a 7-9 afterthought three years ago. The Chiefs wen't 2-14 in 2012, only to rebound with an 11-5 season last year. The Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons were trendy Super Bowl picks a year ago and now both will pick in the top six of the NFL Draft.

The drastic, and often unforeseen, changes from one season to the next makes offseason strength of schedule much ado about nothing. Sure, some teams who we think will be good will actually be good and some we think will be bad will in fact be bad. But, how many fans looked at the 2013 NFL schedule on release day and thought "oh my team plays the Texans, that will be a tough game." At the same time, many probably put a big W next to the Chiefs, when forecasting their teams' projected win/loss record.

It's easy to look at the schedule and think a team is doomed because of a murders row of opponents or think another team has it made because of a perceived soft schedule. But, in April, that doesn't mean much. The Carolina Panthers had the toughest strength of schedule last year and they went on to win 12 games. The Texans had the sixth-easiest, prompting many to assume they'd coast into the playoffs. They won two games and ended up playing the second-hardest schedule in the NFL. Of the teams projected to play the six hardest schedules last season, only one faced a top five schedule while two of the six played schedules ranked 29th or worse.

The NFL schedule release is a thing now, and forecasting the season is a natural result, but when doing it, remember, offseason strength of schedule isn't always what it's cracked up to be.