The New England Patriots have failed to cover the spread the last five times they played in the AFC Championship and they opened laying a touchdown to the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
New England is a 7-point favorite at home, according to Bovada's current NFL lines.
Indianapolis has established itself as a legitimate contender on both sides of the ball and should be able to cover the spread as a 7-point underdog.
OddsShark Computer Prediction: Indianapolis 29.5, New England 36.8
Tom Brady was masterful last Saturday in New England's 35-31 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Finishing with 367 passing yards and three touchdowns, Brady helped New England erase two separate 14-point deficits en route to the win.
After allowing 428 yards and 31 points to Baltimore, the Patriots will need to be a lot better on defense this week with Andrew Luck coming to town. New England is 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS over its last 18 home games, according to the matchup stats.
The Colts followed up their dominant win over Cincinnati at home with another dominant performance in a 24-13 upset win on the road over the Denver Broncos last Sunday. Andrew Luck had another strong showing but it was once again the defense that set the tempo of the game.
For the fourth time in its last five games, Indianapolis held its opponent to 13 points or fewer. The Colts are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their last eight games.
The Patriots have won 10 straight (7-3 ATS) home games against AFC South opponents while the Colts have lost six straight road games against AFC East teams.
Sunday's total is set at 53.5 points at the sportsbooks. The OVER is 6-0 in the last six games between these two teams, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and 9-1 in Indianapolis' last 10 road games against AFC East opponents.
This is an intriguing game between the two best teams in the AFC. New England and Indianapolis are both known for their offenses and quarterback play, but both teams have deceptively strong defenses as well.
This game could end up being a shootout or a defensive showdown, with weather potentially determining which way it goes. But either way, it should be a close game into the fourth quarter and Indianapolis should be a live 7-point underdog.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Trends
Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats
Colts 0-6 SU last 6 road games vs. AFC East (2-4 ATS)
Colts 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Patriots (2-3 ATS)
Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games
Colts 3-7 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)
Patriots 0-5 ATS in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 SU)
Patriots 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008
Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 home games vs. AFC South (7-3 ATS)
Patriots 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS)
Patriots 4-10 ATS last 14 playoff games (7-7 SU)
UNDER 10-3 in Indy's last 13 road playoff games (6-1 L7)
OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings
OVER 9-1 in Indy's last 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 L7)
OVER 6-0 in New England's last 6 home games vs. AFC South
OVER 11-3 in New England's last 14 home games