Even without Andrew Luck, three straight games against the AFC South was just the medicine the Indianapolis Colts needed to go from winless to all alone atop the standings, and bolster their chances at another divisional title.
The Colts have historically dominated the AFC South, winning nine of their 13 titles since the division was introduced. With a win over the Houston Texans in Week 5, that came due to a good showing by a sick, 40-year-old quarterback. Indianapolis now has a 59.5 percent chance at winning the division, according to the playoff odds at Football Outsiders.
In the NFC East, the New York Giants earned a win in Week 5, giving them a one-game lead over the rest of the division and jumping their chances at the playoffs from 52.6 to 63.8 percent.
The Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals have much bigger strangleholds on their divisions, though. A win over the St. Louis Rams improved to Packers' chances at winning the NFC North to a staggering 97.8 percent, and another game of separation from the Seahawks jumped the Cardinals' odds of making the playoffs from 78 to 93.5 percent.
While a game between the Seahawks and undefeated Carolina Panthers will be important for the NFC playoff picture, it's the AFC that will be in the spotlight in Week 6. Two games will feature matchups between teams that would be in the postseason if the season ended today.
The New England Patriots -- who enter Week 6 with a 99.3 percent chance at the postseason and the best Super Bowl odds -- will travel to face the Colts in an AFC Championship rematch. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to stay undefeated against the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo likely faces the most pressure of the four to perform, because their 52.6 percent odds at the postseason don't leave much room to drop games. While easier games like ones against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins are on the way, the Bills can't afford to continue to lose ground on the Patriots and fall behind early in the AFC Wild Card race.
Still, it's far too early to put in a nail in any coffin, as even the 1-3 Tennessee Titans still have a 30.6 percent chance at playing in the playoffs. It might be OK to write off the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins, though.
Those are the only three teams that have a less-than-one percent chance at making the playoffs. Detroit is still looking for its first win, but it's the 49ers that have the worst chance at the playoffs at just 0.4 percent. San Francisco is 1-4 and will play another 1-4 team in Week 6, when they take on the Baltimore Ravens, but the latter still have a 7.2 percent chance at the postseason in the AFC.
With 12 weeks left to play, these are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, according to Football Outsiders:
|No.||Team||Super Bowl win|
|1||New England Patriots||31.4 percent|
|2||Green Bay Packers||20.7 percent|
|3||Arizona Cardinals||18.6 percent|
|4||Cincinnati Bengals||11 percent|
|5||Denver Broncos||4.1 percent|
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