UPDATE: Yep, it was a close one, but Brady and Co. pulled off a 30-23 win.
Brady is 21-7 against the Jets in his career, with seven wins in the last eight games, but New York has narrowed the gap. The last four games have been decided by three points or less, including the Jets' 30-27 overtime win in 2013.
The first half of the matchup is obvious -- the Patriots lead the league in scoring at 36.6 points per game, while the Jets lead in scoring defense at 15.0. Brady leads the league with 14 touchdowns as opposed to just one interception, while New York has intercepted seven passes and only allowed nine touchdowns, so the Jets have the passing defense to at least slow Brady down. Still, with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski, no one is going to stop New England through the air.
The New York run defense is just as good, holding opponents to 3.5 yards per carry. The Patriots aren't bad on the ground, but LeGarrette Blount isn't going to be able to keep up his 5.1 YPC average against Kacy Rogers' front seven. That could mean more time for Dion Lewis, a speed back who averages 5.0 yards per carry, but is also a significant receiving threat out of the backfield.
Given the offensive and defensive numbers, it is likely that the Patriots are going to put up a score in the mid-20s. So do the Jets have any way of getting to that number themselves?
The answer to that question is going to depend on Chris Ivory. Ivory has rushed for 460 yards in four games, averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and New England's one weakness this season has been its run defense. The Patriots are 29th in the league, allowing 4.9 yards a carry. Ivory will have to carry the load Sunday, because third-down back Bilal Powell is dealing with an ankle injury.
If Ivory gets rolling, it will open things up for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will have to play mistake-free football. All too often, he will get into a rhythm and have the Jets moving, only to throw an interception at a key moment. He won't have that luxury against New England, which has six interceptions in five games.
Fitzpatrick is also going to have to find a way to move the ball through the air with a banged-up receiving corps. Not only is Powell hurt, but Chris Owusu and Eric Decker are questionable to play, while Quincy Enunwa is serving a four-game suspension. That will let the Patriots focus on their coverage on Brandon Marshall and force Fitzpatrick to go elsewhere with the ball.
The Jets will be fired up for this game, but even with their defense, it is hard to see a way where Ivory can do enough on the ground to give Fitzpatrick a chance to match Brady's output.
How to watch
When: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Announcers: Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, Evan Washburn
Online: NFL Game Pass