With just over half of the 2015 season in the books, several divisional races look to be wrapped up already with three undefeated teams still towering over their divisions. But some races, like the one in the NFC North, have tightened up in recent weeks, and a Sunday Night Football duel between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks could result in a three-way race for the NFC West.
After jumping out to a big lead in the division, the 6-2 Cardinals are trying to hold off the 4-4 Seahawks and 4-4 St. Louis Rams. If the Rams are able to bounce back from an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings with a win over the Chicago Bears in Week 10, the NFC West could have three teams within a game of the division lead if the Seahawks are able to beat the Cardinals in Seattle for the fifth time in six years.
At Football Outsiders, the NFC West is still projected to belong to the Cardinals, who have a 94.4 percent chance at making the playoffs and an 80.6 percent chance at winning the division crown.
Only two divisions, the NFC East and the AFC South, don't have a team with odds over 60 percent at winning their respective division. Even the NFC North, which is now tied after the Green Bay Packers dropped back-to-back games and the Vikings rattled off a four-game winning streak, still has an 84.8 percent chance of belonging to the Packers.
After tough games against the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, the Packers will get a reprieve with a game against the Detroit Lions, while the Vikings have a tough challenge on the road against the Oakland Raiders. If Minnesota can keep the race tied, a Week 11 matchup of two 7-2 teams atop the NFC North would be the headlining game of the week.
In the NFC East, the 5-4 New York Giants are the only team with a winning record, but a game against the undefeated New England Patriots could push the team back to .500 and leave the door open for the Philadelphia Eagles to snag the division lead with a win over the Miami Dolphins.
The AFC South could also get closer while the Indianapolis Colts are on bye. The Houston Texans face a tough road game against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to climb back into the race with a battle against the fellow 2-6 Baltimore Ravens. In a division with no winning records, a 3-6 record would put the Jaguars right in the thick of the race.
Four of the eight divisions are led by teams with odds over 90 percent at earning the division crowns, led by the Bengals who now have a 97.2 percent chance at winning the AFC North after beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8.
With eight weeks left to play, these are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, according to Football Outsiders:
No. | Team | Super Bowl win |
1 | New England Patriots | 27.1 percent |
2 | Arizona Cardinals | 19.4 percent |
3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 16.0 percent |
4 | Carolina Panthers | 15.5 percent |
5 | Green Bay Packers | 6.8 percent |