Todd McShay is sticking to his prediction that the first two picks of the 2015 NFL Draft will be quarterbacks, but the rest of the top 10 was shaken up plenty in his latest mock draft.
Seven of the eights selections that followed Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in McShay's mock draft feature new players that weren't in his previous mock, with Brandon Scherff serving as the sole exception. No move raises more eyebrows than Todd Gurley's rise to sixth overall, though.
There were no running backs taken in the first round of the 2013 or 2014 drafts and Trent Richardson is the only one to go in the top eight in the last six drafts. That didn't stop McShay from rocketing Gurley into the top 10 after a recent medical check cleared the former Georgia running back.
With so much change at the top of his mock draft, one notable slide was USC's Leonard Williams dropping to one pick after Gurley. While McShay notes that he still thinks highly of Williams, there might not be an ideal scheme fit for Williams if he doesn't go earlier in the draft order.
Here's a full look at McShay's top 10 picks:
1. Jameis Winston, QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a selection that McShay has been pretty committed to, and he doesn't think a change is coming. The ESPN analyst has Winston rated as the top player in the draft class and said he's one of the best prospect he has evaluated in the last 10 years "in the areas that matter most in projecting QBs to the next level." With eight days until the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, don't expect McShay to back off his projection here.
2. Marcus Mariota, QB - Tennessee Titans
While this is another pick that McShay is keeping the same, he notes that he doesn't believe it will be the Titans making the selection. If the team is stuck with the second pick and unable to make a trade, McShay says a player like Leonard Williams makes more sense. However, he foresees a deal being struck and tabbed the San Diego Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets and St. Louis Rams as potential trade partners.
3. Dante Fowler, Jr., DE - Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have beefed up their defensive line, but still lack an elite edge rusher to fill the pass rush specialist "LEO" role. Chris Clemons helped the team some in that regard, but finding a young replacement is a priority, and McShay pegs Fowler as the player to do it. McShay names Leonard Williams and Amari Cooper as other possibilities for the Jaguars, but thinks an edge rusher is a bigger need.
4. Amari Cooper, WR - Oakland Raiders
With Leonard Williams on the board, McShay notes that the decision for the Raiders would be between Cooper and Williams, but that wide receiver is the bigger need. Despite adding Michael Crabtree, the team is still thin at the position, and Derek Carr could use all the weapons he can get after finishing with the NFL's worst offense in 2014.
5. Shane Ray, OLB - Washington
As was the case with the No. 2 pick, McShay notes that he thinks the pick will be traded away, and with Leonard Williams on the board still, there could be plenty of leverage. At No. 5, Washington can choose between Ray and Randy Gregory, but McShay thinks the team will shy away from character concerns. While there are questions about Ray's ability to rush from a standing position, McShay thinks he has the first-step quickness to adequately fill the void left by Brian Orakpo's departure.
6. Todd Gurley, RB - New York Jets
McShay thinks Gurley is going to go early in the draft, and while the sixth pick might be a little too early, he doesn't think the Georgia back will have to wait long to hear his name called. Upgrading at quarterback could be a priority for the team, but adding an elite running back could stick a band-aid on that problem for a little while. McShay mentions Kevin White, Brandon Scherff, Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley as other players who make sense for the Jets.
SB Nation presents: Where we rank Gurley among running backs in the draft
7. Leonard Williams, DL - Chicago Bears
Williams is the No. 2 player on McShay's board, behind only Jameis Winston, so he wants to be clear that the drop for the USC defensive lineman isn't an indictment of his skills. Instead, the Bears get lucky that the top six teams don't have a crucial need for a player like Williams. If the slide doesn't occur, McShay thinks Kevin White will be the pick for the Bears instead.
8. Randy Gregory, OLB - Atlanta Falcons
Dan Quinn is the man in charge in Atlanta now, and building the defense in the mold he wants is at the top of the list of priorities for the Falcons. Only one team finished with fewer sacks than the Falcons, so McShay thinks the team will be OK with accepting the risks associated with a player like Gregory in exchange for his high ceiling and elite pass-rushing ability.
9. Brandon Scherff, OT - New York Giants
Scherff hasn't moved at all in McShay's mock drafts, and he still thinks the Giants are a perfect landing spot for the first offensive tackle off the board. It has been four consecutive mock drafts with Scherff to the Giants for McShay. If it's not Scherff, though, McShay thinks Trae Waynes, Kevin White and Todd Gurley are possible candidates for the Giants.
10. Kevin White, WR - St. Louis Rams
McShay jam-packed three wide receivers in the top 10 of his last mock draft, so the Rams get a little more value this time around with White at the No. 10 pick. If it's not a No. 1 receiver for the Rams, McShay thinks an offensive lineman could also make sense for St. Louis, and he lists Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers as possibilities.
★★★
The latest mock draft from SB Nation's Dan Kadar is a roundup of the opinions of 20 experts and looks similar to McShay's projections at the top of the draft order. The top three picks mirror McShay's projection and Kadar also has Scherff going to the Giants with the ninth pick, while the other six picks are shaken up some.