If the first running back or the first wide receiver you draft this season falls on his face, it's frustrating, but you can recover from it. Such is the benefit of having five, six, seven of them on your roster, and dozens more on the waiver wire.
If your quarterback busts, though, it's hard to find a place to turn. You might be drafting a backup (though not always), but you aren't burning a pick on a second quarterback at any point early; you really need the guy you draft to provide a solid return on investment.
With that in mind, here's a look at some potential quarterback bust candidates for 2015. These are just my opinion, and you might disagree, but these guys scare me more than most entering the season:
Drew Brees, Saints
Brees put up his worst fantasy production since 2010 last year. Now, that does not mean he was bad — he still finished sixth at the position, still averaged 18.1 fantasy points a game — but it is true nonetheless. He lost Brandin Cooks, Mark Ingram and Jimmy Graham for multiple games, had a terrible defense, and wasn't his usual self in home games compared to past years. Some are calling for a bounce-back, and honestly, talent-wise that's on the table. Remember, though, that the Saints traded for Max Unger and signed C.J. Spiller in the offseason. Graham and Kenny Stills are gone, but the team retained Ingram and Khiry Robinson. The Saints might be surprisingly run-heavy in 2015. Combine that with the worries about Brees' production from last year, and I know I wouldn't want him as my starter.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
It's easy to look at Stafford and still see that guy who threw for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in a season. Heck, that was just a couple years ago, right? Wait, it was 2011. Since then, his passing yardage has dropped every year. He barely threw half that many touchdowns last year, with only 22. And while he had a full-season low of 12 interceptions in 2014, all of that added up to only the 15th-best fantasy quarterback. Injuries are increasingly becoming a part of Calvin Johnson's game, meaning you never know if/when Stafford will have his top weapon on the field. Golden Tate and the team's assortment of running backs and tight ends are fine, but without Megatron this isn't a special offense, and even with him Stafford is no longer a sure thing.
Sam Bradford, Eagles
I know why it's fun to think about Bradford. His ability has always been tantalizing, and if any offense can make a previously disappointing quarterback successful it's the Eagles. The downside, though, is zero games played; we never know when Bradford's next injury will arise. Also, somewhat famously, Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow have combined to be three of the worst quarterbacks in the league in recent years. So if you're drafting Bradford, you're taking an oft-injured, under-performing quarterback. Maybe the Eagles' O-line can keep him safe, and maybe the Eagles' game plan can make him successful. It's in the realm of possibility. But betting your season on it seems dodgy.