Before anyone takes to the comments in order to point it out: Yes, this fantasy football busts column just last year was the same one that led with Rob Gronkowski as its poster boy. Not the wisest of decisions. But that's the thing about deciphering sleepers and busts in the fantasy biz. The term "bust," for whatever reason, gives off the notion of falling flat on your face rather than failing to live up to the expectations decided beforehand.
Take Gronkowski, for instance. Universally being drafted within the Top 10 of most drafts, Gronk is clearly expected to produce other-wordly numbers in comparison to his tight-end brethren. If for some reason he finishes 2015 with 600 yards and three touchdowns -- a total that would've ranked him just outside the Top 15 last season -- he should decidedly be labeled a bust. It's that simple and yet it's not portrayed that way. Having said that, these next few names are players I believe will fail to produce the proper return that coincides with their current ADP (and not fall flat on their face).
It bodes well for Graham that Seattle tight ends as a whole combined for 16 red zone targets in 2014, four more than their next highest receiver (his current ADP nestled at the beginning of the third round, drafting Graham assuredly means missing out on a majority of top flight receivers, or that ever-so-important running back depth. He could potentially continue his dominance and post his fifth-consecutive year as a Top 3 TE, but the questions surrounding volume are enough to shy away and lean elsewhere with one of your first four picks.). Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks also attempted the fewest red zone passes last season. With
Let's assume for a moment that Allen isn't the North pole to every football's South pole (magnet humor, anyone?) and that his baffling touchdown for every four receptions will surely regress. The most recent comp we can look to for such a feat is (gulp), who accomplished the same on two fewer targets whilst recording 150 more receiving yards. If we forego Bryant -- mainly due to his forecasted caliber as an NFL receiver on the rise -- and instead use the next closest historical comp to project Allen's follow-up breakout year, it's even less exciting than imagined.
Marc Boerigter was 24 (the same age as Allen) when he caught eight touchdowns on only 20 receptions. He finished the 2002 season tied for the sixth-most touchdowns in the league. In 2003, he followed up his surprising campaign with 15 fantasy points . . . total. Not to say Allen will fall that mightily from the heavens, but another Top 13 finish is highly unlikely.
As originally pointed out by @RMSummerlin, Bennett's production relies heavily on the first three weeks of the season. Since leaving the in 2012, 32 percent of Bennett's fantasy points have been scored between Weeks 1-3. If that weren't enough, an astonishing 10 of his 12 touchdowns (83 percent!!!) the past three years have also been scored during the first three weeks of the season. In other words, cash in and sell high before he becomes just another bust.
Julius Thomas, JAX
The Jacksonville Jaguars big free agency addition has gotten off to an inauspicious start. Thomas suffered a fracture to the back of his hand, and will miss the rest of the preseason. He was already worth a downgrade based on his new team, but missing the preseason does not help him establish chemistry with Blake Bortles. He is still likely to put up solid numbers, but do not expect anything near what we saw with Peyton Manning.