NFL picks 2016, Week 17: Experts ready to crown Lions NFC North champs, but just barely

Week 17 is a notoriously difficult week to predict. Teams with no lingering postseason hope line up a smattering of disengaged players, while teams already secure in their playoff standing rest the ones who matter most.

But one massive matchup Sunday night will feature two teams emptying their tanks in a de facto playoff game. The Packers and Lions will battle in a Week 17 showdown to determine the league’s final division champ. Whoever stands triumphant in Detroit will take the NFC North crown and earn a hosting gig for the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

And SB Nation’s NFL experts are predicting the Lions’ title drought will end in 2016. Detroit hasn’t finished a season on top of its division since 1993, when Barry Sanders was still around to make all our Thanksgivings a bit brighter. By a 5-4 margin, writers have given Matthew Stafford a vote of confidence despite the finger injury that has limited him to a 1:4 TD:INT ratio in his last three games.

Stafford will have to overcome a Packers offense once again led by an MVP candidate. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire lately, The Green Bay quarterback hasn’t thrown an interception since a blowout loss to the Titans in November, but he has thrown 14 touchdowns in the intervening weeks. The Packers, not coincidentally, are 5-1 over that stretch.

But our experts aren’t banking on another strong-armed miracle Sunday night.

Oakland, now without MVP candidate Derek Carr, is likely to fall short in its bid to earn home-field advantage in what may be one of its final seasons in the Bay Area. Backup quarterback Matt McGloin will have his hands full with one of the league’s most dynamic defenses on Sunday. If he can’t avoid Von Miller, the Patriots will take home the top spot in the AFC no matter how they do against the Dolphins.

Elsewhere, Washington is a slight favorite to earn a playoff berth by beating the Giants at home, but no one’s quite sold on Kirk Cousins’s postseason bona fides just yet. Tampa Bay, a moderate favorite to close out Carolina’s NFC Championship defense with another defeat, will need some help — actually a lot of it — to extend its season, even with a victory. And Tennessee, playoff hopeless and without Marcus Mariota, is still getting a few votes to beat the Tom Savage–led Texans despite their 1-4 record against the AFC South.

With the playoff picture pretty much set, the only real drama remains at the bottom of the standings. The Browns are still in solid shape for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, where Myles Garrett or another solid non-quarterback prospect will be waiting. The 49ers, recent snappers of a 13-game losing streak, are expected to join them at No. 2 in the draft order. The Rams, Jaguars, Jets, and Bears are all on track to join them in the league’s basement of futility in Week 17.

Green Bay’s Hail Mary to win in Detroit last year